COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Lombardy, Italy: An ecological study on the role of air pollution, meteorological factors, demographic and socioeconomic variables

Lombardy, the most populated and industrialized Italian region, was the epicentre of the first wave (March and April 2020) of COVID-19 in Italy and it is among the most air polluted areas of Europe. We carried out an ecological study to assess the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality after accounting for demographic, socioeconomic and meteorological variables. The study was based on publicly available data. Multivariable negative binomial mixed regression models were fitted, and results were reported in terms of incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMR). The effect of winter temperature and humidity was modelled through restricted cubic spline. Data from 1439 municipalities out of 1507 (95%) were included in the analyses, leading to a total of 61,377 COVID-19 cases and 40,401 deaths from all-causes collected from February 20th to April 16th and from March 1st to April 30th, 2020, respectively. Several demographic and socioeconomic variables resulted significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality in a multivariable fashion. An increase in average winter temperature was associated with a nonlinear decrease in COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality, while an opposite trend emerged for the absolute humidity. An increase of 10 μg/m3 in the mean annual concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 over the previous years was associated with a 58% and 34% increase in COVID-19 incidence rate, respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m3 increase of annual mean PM2.5 concentration was associated with a 23% increase in all-cause mortality. An inverse association was found between NO2 levels and COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality. Our ecological study showed that exposure to PM was significantly associated with the COVID-19 incidence and excess mortality during the first wave of the outbreak in Lombardy, Italy

The greatest air quality experiment ever: Policy suggestions from the COVID-19 lockdown in twelve European cities

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) hit Europe in January 2020. By March, Europe was the active centre of the pandemic. As a result, widespread "lockdown" measures were enforced across the various European countries, even if to a different extent. Such actions caused a dramatic reduction, especially in road traffic. This event can be considered the most significant experiment ever conducted in Europe to assess the impact of a massive switch-off of atmospheric pollutant sources. In this study, we focus on in situ concentration data of the main atmospheric pollutants measured in twelve European cities, characterized by different climatology, emission sources, and strengths. We propose a methodology for the fair comparison of the impact of lockdown measures considering the non-stationarity of meteorological conditions and emissions, which are progressively declining due to the adoption of stricter air quality measures. The analysis of these unmatched circumstances allowed us to estimate the impact of a nearly zero-emission urban transport scenario on air quality in 12 European cities. The clearest result, common to all the cities, is that a dramatic traffic reduction effectively reduces NO2 concentrations. In contrast, each city’s PM and ozone concentrations can respond differently to the same type of emission reduction measure. From the policy point of view, these findings suggest that measures targeting urban traffic alone may not be the only effective option for improving air quality in cities.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 19 autors/es: Marialuisa Volta 1, Umberto Giostra 2, Giorgio Guariso 3, Jose Baldasano 4, Martin Lutz 5, Andreas Kerschbaumer 5, Annette Rauterberg-Wulff 5, Francisco Ferreira 6, Luısa Mendes 6, Joana Monjardino 6, Nicolas Moussiopοulos 7, Christos Vlachokostas 7, Peter Viaene 8, Janssen Stijn 8, Enrico Turrini 1, Elena De Angelis 1, Claudio Carnevale 1, Martin L. Williams 9, Michela Maione 2,10 // 1 Dipartimento di Ingegneria Meccanica e Civile, Università di Brescia, Brescia, Italy; 2 Dipartimento di Scienze Pure e Applicate, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo, Urbino, Italy; 3 Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy; 4 Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain; 5 Senatsverwaltung für Umwelt, Mobilität, Verbraucher-und Klimaschutz, Berlin, Germany; 6 Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal; 7 Aristoteleio Panepistemio Thessalonikes, Thessalonike, Greece; 8 VITO, Vision on Technology, Mol, Belgium; 9 Environmental Research Group, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; 10 Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Bologna, ItalyPostprint (published version

A Framework for Integrated Assessment Modelling

“Air quality plans” according to Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC Art. 23 are the strategic element to be developed, with the aim to reliably meet ambient air quality standards in a cost-effective way. This chapter provides a general framework to develop and assess such plans along the lines of the European Commission’s basic ideas to implement effective emission reduction measures at local, region, and national level. This methodological point of view also allows to analyse the existing integrated approaches

Air Quality Integrated Assessment. A European Perspective

This book reports on the results of an extended survey conducted across Europe within the framework of the APPRAISAL FP7 project to determine the extent to which an integrated assessment approach to air quality is being adopted, on the one hand, by regional and local authorities to develop air quality plans and, on the other, by researchers. Following a detailed analysis of the role and structure of the components of an integrated assessment study, the results of the survey are considered from a variety of perspectives. Above all, the book discusses the new light the survey sheds on emission abatement policies and measures planned at regional and local scales, and on their synergies/trade-offs with measures implemented at the national scale. Detailed consideration is given to the currently available modeling methodologies for identifying emission sources, assessing the effectiveness of emission reduction measures, and evaluating the impacts of emission abatement measures on human health. Current strengths and weaknesses revealed by the survey are explored, and the application of an integrated assessment tool in two case studies (in Brussels and Porto) is discussed. The book will appeal to all those interested in the use of integrated assessment in connection with the sources, effects and control of air pollution