Carotid atherosclerosis in virologically suppressed HIV patients: comparison with a healthy sample and prediction by cardiovascular risk equations

Objectives: To compare the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in virologically suppressed HIV patients with that of a community sample, and to evaluate the capacity of various cardiovascular risk (CVR) equations for predicting carotid atherosclerosis. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with two randomly selected groups: HIV patients from an HIV unit and a control group drawn from the community. Participants were matched by age (30-80 years) and sex without history of cardiovascular disease. Carotid plaque, common carotid intima-media thickness (cc-IMT) and subclinical atherosclerosis (carotid plaque and/or cc-IMT > 75th percentile) were assessed by carotid ultrasound. The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Framingham, REGICOR, reduced Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D), and COMVIH equations were applied, and their abilities to predict carotid plaque were compared using the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Each group included 379 subjects (77.8% men, age 49.7 years). Duration of antiretroviral therapy was 15.5 years. There were no differences between the groups for carotid plaque (HIV, 33.2%; control, 31.3%), mean cc-IMT (HIV, 0.63 mm; control, 0.61 mm) or subclinical atherosclerosis (HIV, 42.9%; control, 47.9%). Thymidine analogues were independently associated with subclinical atherosclerosis in HIV-infected patients. CVR equations revealed AUCs between 0.715 and 0.807 for prediction of carotid plaque; prediction was better in the control group and did not improve when HIV-adapted scales were used. Conclusions: The features of carotid atherosclerosis did not differ between the HIV-infected and the control group, although CVR equations were more predictive for carotid plaque in controls than in HIV-infected patients. HIV-specific equations did not improve prediction

Prediction of long-term outcomes of HIV-infected patients developing non-AIDS events using a multistate approach

Outcomes of people living with HIV (PLWH) developing non-AIDS events (NAEs) remain poorly defined. We aimed to classify NAEs according to severity, and to describe clinical outcomes and prognostic factors after NAE occurrence using data from CoRIS, a large Spanish HIV cohort from 2004 to 2013. Prospective multicenter cohort study. Using a multistate approach we estimated 3 transition probabilities: from alive and NAE-free to alive and NAE-experienced ("NAE development"); from alive and NAE-experienced to death ("Death after NAE"); and from alive and NAE-free to death ("Death without NAE"). We analyzed the effect of different covariates, including demographic, immunologic and virologic data, on death or NAE development, based on estimates of hazard ratios (HR). We focused on the transition "Death after NAE". 8,789 PLWH were followed-up until death, cohort censoring or loss to follow-up. 792 first incident NAEs occurred in 9.01% PLWH (incidence rate 28.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.80-30.84, per 1000 patient-years). 112 (14.14%) NAE-experienced PLWH and 240 (2.73%) NAE-free PLWH died. Adjusted HR for the transition "Death after NAE" was 12.1 (95%CI, 4.90-29.89). There was a graded increase in the adjusted HRs for mortality according to NAE severity category: HR (95%CI), 4.02 (2.45-6.57) for intermediate-severity; and 9.85 (5.45-17.81) for serious NAEs compared to low-severity NAEs. Male sex (HR 2.04; 95% CI, 1.11-3.84), ag