Small scale economic differentiation – A multi-level analysis with indirect closure

We want to isolate systematically differing small-scale agglomeration-patterns, which indicate different types of competition between localities. We apply a technique of indirect closure based on the differing observed relation between local business tax-rate and tax-revenue and use a mixed multi-level model in order to cope with local dependencies on different scales. Thereby it is shown that small-scale agglomeration effects, i.e. differing development potentials of similar municipalities, are at least partially determined by settlement characteristics, geographical relative position and industry structure. Since these influences interact in various ways the observed patterns are very complex. It is due to small-scale “agglomeration-effectsâ€, defined here as a positive observed relation between tax-rate and tax-revenue, that municipalities of the same type may nevertheless have different potentials in economic development. On the other hand, a high mobility of firms in a dynamic environment strengthens the competition-effect as indicated by a negative relation between tax-rate and tax-revenue. Under such circumstances municipalities will strive for convergence. In empirical studies comparing regional developments on various geographical scales these heterogeneous relations will have to be taken into account in order to reach generalisable conclusions. we also conclude that regional economic policy cannot apply identical concepts independently of the wider economic environment. Instead it has to react to the differing endogenous potentials of localities for economic development.

The Role of Small Farms in Structural Change

This paper explains regionally differentiated patterns of structural change based on a theoretical framework dealing with strategic interaction of farms on the land market. The main research question focuses on the causes of regionally persistent structures. An empirical Markov chain model is defined for the West German agricultural sector. Thereby it is possible to explain the probabilities of farm growth, decline or exit in terms of the current and former regional farm size structure. Further, the impact of variables describing the regional farm structure, thereby indicating market power of the large, the potential of high competition for land within a region and possibly high rents of the status quo in combination with sunk costs, is quantified. The results confirm the relevance of strategic interaction as a crucial determinant of regionally different structural change and persistent regional differences in the farm size structure over time.structural change, strategic competition, land market, Markov chain, Land Economics/Use,

The Role of Small Farms in Structural Change

This paper explains regionally differentiated patterns of structural change based on a theoretical framework dealing with strategic interaction of farms on the land market. The main research question focuses on the causes of regionally persistent structures. An empirical Markov chain model is defined for the West German agricultural sector. Thereby it is possible to explain the probabilities of farm growth, decline or exit in terms of the current and former regional farm size structure. Further, the impact of variables describing the regional farm structure, thereby indicating market power of the large, the potential of high competition for land within a region and possibly high rents of the status quo in combination with sunk costs, is quantified. The results confirm the relevance of strategic interaction as a crucial determinant of regionally different structural change and persistent regional differences in the farm size structure over time.structural change, strategic competition, land market, Markov chain, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Regional asymmetries in farm size

This paper explores how the initial farm size structure affects the exit decision of farms inducing free land capacities, and the allocation of the newly available land resources to the remaining farms in a particular region. We model an agricultural market where large and small firms first decide whether to leave the market or not; in case of continuing in production the farms compete for getting access to additional land resources in a Vickrey auction. We find that larger farms allocate more additional quantity than small farms; the latter are more likely to leave the market. An empirical illustration gives further support and reveals the relation between farm size structure, farm exits and growth of the large.asymmetries, land market, capacity allocation, Vickrey auction, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, L11, L12, Q12,

Centering Noncitizens\u27 Free Speech

First Amendment law pays little attention to noncitizens’ free speech interests. Perhaps noncitizens simply enjoy the same First Amendment rights as citizens. However, ambivalent and sometimes hostile Supreme Court precedents create serious cause for concern. This Essay advocates moving noncitizens’ free speech from the far periphery to the center of First Amendment law. Professor Magarian posits that noncitizens epitomize a condition of speech inequality, in which social conditions and legal doctrines combine to create distinctive, unwarranted barriers to full participation in public discourse. First Amendment law can ameliorate speech inequality by promoting an ethos of free speech obligation, amplifying the voices of politically and socially disadvantaged speakers while encouraging more mainstream, advantaged audiences to hear those voices out. Centering noncitizens’ free speech would establish a paradigm of free speech obligation. That paradigm would directly ensure noncitizens’ First Amendment rights while also, by extension, strengthening speech protections for other groups afflicted by speech inequality—identity minorities, political dissidents, and social outcasts. As to immediate, particular outcomes, centering noncitizens’ free speech would necessarily bar the government from deporting noncitizens in retaliation for their political speech and from imposing special constraints on individual noncitizens’ spending to support candidates for public offices

NACHBARSCHAFTS- UND KONJUNKTUREFFEKTE: ZUR AUFGABEWAHRSCHEINLICHKEIT LANDWIRTSCHAFTLICHER BETRIEBE

Structural change, farm-exits, propensity, proximity effect, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Mehr-Ebenen-Modelle in der Analyse agrarstruktureller Entwicklungen – Methodik und Implikationen

Until now empirical analyses have not succeeded in the determination of a general upon agreed bunch of the most important driving forces of structural change in agriculture beyond the level of the national economy. It will be argued that the sometimes contradictory results of different studies are caused by the endogenous dynamics of structural change as well as by mixing up different levels of causality. The influence of single causes, therefore, is not necessarily characterised by linearity, symmetry and independence of other causes, of the location or of time. Multi-level-models are being presented as a method with the capability to cope with these problems by modelling hierarchical relations and dynamics in time simultaneously. The flexibility of the method as well as its capability to generate new insights will be demonstrated on the example of a panel analysis for the explanation of regional differences in structural change of agriculture.structural change, multi-level-model, mixed model, hierarchical causation, endogenous restrictions, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

The reflexive relationship between land markets and farmers’ strategies in Germany

The specific conditions of local land markets could support strategic interaction among farmers. In this case, ideas from strategic competition imply that currently observed regional differences in farmers’ strategies should partly be explainable by reference to historical farm size distributions. We test respective hypotheses in a regression approach based on data on the Landkreis (district) level (NUTS 3) in Germany from a standardised survey among farm advisors and from secondary statistics. The results confirm the expected reflexive relationship between local land markets and farmers’ strategic orientation. Moreover, a complex relationship between farmers’ strategies, their general attitudes and farm development dynamics is identified. Thereby those explanations of regional differences among farmers’ strategies which rely solely on factors exogenous to agricultural production, be it alternative employment possibilities or cultural differences, are contested

Gewinnentwicklung und Betriebsaufgabe in der Landwirtschaft: Angebotseffekte, Nachfrageeffekte und regionale Heterogenität

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit besteht in der Bestimmung der Betriebsaufgabewahrscheinlichkeit verschiedener Betriebstypen im Westen Deutschlands in Abhängigkeit von Gewinnniveau und Gewinnentwicklung. Dabei wird davon ausgegangen, dass die Reaktion der Betriebe auch von der erwarteten Nachhaltigkeit der Gewinnschwankungen sowie von der Betroffenheit anderer Betriebe abhängt. Es wird deshalb auch erwartet, dass die Betriebe in Abhängigkeit vom regionalen Kontext unterschiedlich reagieren. Die Gewinnerwartung der Betriebe wird mithilfe des Testbetriebsnetzes des BMELV geschätzt. Die Betriebsaufgabewahrscheinlichkeit wird in einem zweiten Schritt anhand der flächendeckenden Daten der Agrarstrukturerhebung in einem logistischen Modell für verschiedene Betriebstypen bestimmt. Schließlich werden in einem Metamodell die Ursachen für die regionalen Unterschiede der Schätzkoeffizienten untersucht. Die Annahmen bezüglich der differenzierten Wirkungen betrieblicher Gewinnschwankungen auf die Betriebsaufgabeentscheidung werden weitgehend bestätigt. Zentrale Fragen für die zukünftige Forschung mit längeren Zeitreihen werden identifiziert. -- This working paper aims at the determination of the impact of different profit-levels and changing profits upon farm-exit probabilities of different farm-types in western Germany. It is expected that the farms' reaction depends on the sustainability of profit-changes as well as on the other farms' concernment. Therefore we also expect that farms show heterogeneous reactions depending on the regional context. Farms' expected profits are estimated with the help of the German Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). Farmexit probabilities are estimated in a second step within a logistic model based on micro data from the farm structural survey. Finally possible causes for heterogeneous estimators are explored in a meta-model. The assumptions concerning the heterogeneous effects of changing profits are confirmed by the results. Central questions for future analyses with longer time-series are identified.Agrarstrukturwandel,Betriebsaufgabeentscheidung,heterogene Effekte,Nachbarschaftseffekte,farm structural change,farm-exit decision,heterogeneous effects,neighbourhood effects