Água e mudanças climáticas

This study constitutes a review of the state-of-the-art on knowledge about climate change and water in Brazil and South America. We discuss some of the results of the studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Inpe's Climate Report on observational studies of climate variability and future projections of change in climate and on the components of the hydrological cycle, until the end of the XXI Century, for the major basins in the continent. One of the main aspects of this document is on the economical and management aspects of water resources in different regions of Brazil, and how that may change in a climate change scenario.O presente documento constitui uma revisão do estado da arte do conhecimento sobre mudanças de clima e água no Brasil e na América do Sul. Discutem-se alguns dos resultados dos estudos do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) e do Relatório de Clima do Inpe em relação a estudos obervacionais de variabilidade de clima e projeções de clima e das componentes do ciclo hidrológico até finais do século XXI, para as principais bacias hidrográficas no continente. Um dos aspectos importantes discutidos neste informe refere-se aos aspectos econômico e gerencial do recurso água nas diferentes regiões do Brasil, e como isso pode mudar num cenário de mudanças de clima

Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil: an integrated approach

Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil: an integrated approachImpacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil: an integrated approac

Remote Sensing as a Tool for Agricultural Drought Alert Over the South Region of Brazil

In this study the estimative of the Combined Drought Index (CDI) to identify agricultural drought over Southern Brazil is introduced. This combined drought index is based on a combination of three indicators: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMA) and Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The proposed CDI has four levels, watch, warning, alert I and alert II, thus benefiting an increasing degrees of severity. This CDI was applied during the first 6 months of 2020 to different study sites over Southern Brasil, representative of the crop areas. The performance of the CDI levels was assessed by comparison with risk areas. Observations show a good match between these areas and the CDI. Important crop drought events in 2020 were correctly predicted by the proposed CDI in all areas

Climate change and disasters: analysis of the Brazilian regional inequality

One of the main consequences of climate change in Brazil is the increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall, which in turn trigger Hydrometeorological disasters; the Brazilian continental dimension, the regional characteristics of biomes and socioeconomic inequality are conditioning factors for the impacts of extreme events in the country.  This work analyzes Brazil’s socioeconomic and urban infrastructure vulnerability, combined with the regional exposure of the population, based on disasters observed and future scenarios for the occurrence of rainfall extremes. As a result, it points out that climate change impact differently on large Brazilian regions, due to population density and the poor quality of urban infrastructure services. One of the main consequences of climate change in Brazil is the increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall, which in turn trigger Hydrometeorological disasters; the Brazilian continental dimension, the regional characteristics of biomes and socioeconomic inequality are conditioning factors for the impacts of extreme events in the country.  This work analyzes Brazil’s socioeconomic and urban infrastructure vulnerability, combined with the regional exposure of the population, based on disasters observed and future scenarios for the occurrence of rainfall extremes. As a result, it points out that climate change impact differently on large Brazilian regions, due to population density and the poor quality of urban infrastructure services.Â

Impact of soil moisture on crop yields over Brazilian semiarid

The objective of this work was to investigate the relationship between soil water content and rainfall with rice, beans, cassava and corn yields in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil. Precipitation and modeled soil water content were compared to yields recorded at the county levels in this region. The results were also integrated over the area of the nine States that lie within the officially recognized region of semiarid climate in Brazil. The influence of water balance components was quantified by calculating their correlation coefficient with yields of the different crop species over the municipalities of the region. It was found that rainfall had higher correlation to crop yields over most of the region, while soil water content had lower values of correlation. This result is consistent with the fact that average root depth is 40 cm, lower than the layer of soil used in the model used to estimate soil water content (100 cm). Plants respond better to the precipitation in the top layers of soil, while the water storage in the deep layer of soil might be important only in other temporal and spatial scales of the hydrological cycle.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Adaptation opportunities for water security in Brazil

We sought to identify priorities and adaptation opportunities for water security across the various Brazilian biomes. With ever-growing demand and water-usage, future climate scenarios suggest that further water resources management constraints are to be endured throughout the next two decades. The unbalance between high-quality water demand and availability in a multisectoral usage context (e.g., domestic, industry, agribusiness) highlights the socio-ecological Nexus+ concept's relevance. In this context, the political and cross-institutional articulation and flexibility play a significant role in steering adaptative actions. These challenges in defining action plans, adequately addressed at a multiscale level with inherent climatic uncertainties, are yet to be overcome in Brazilian water resources management.  We sought to identify priorities and adaptation opportunities for water security across the various Brazilian biomes. With ever-growing demand and water-usage, future climate scenarios suggest that further water resources management constraints are to be endured throughout the next two decades. The unbalance between high-quality water demand and availability in a multisectoral usage context (e.g., domestic, industry, agribusiness) highlights the socio-ecological Nexus+ concept's relevance. In this context, the political and cross-institutional articulation and flexibility play a significant role in steering adaptative actions. These challenges in defining action plans, adequately addressed at a multiscale level with inherent climatic uncertainties, are yet to be overcome in Brazilian water resources management. Â

Climate impacts in the Brazilian energy security: analysis of observed events and adaptation options

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which can affect energy systems. Thus, this study aims to evaluate impacts of meteorological events on the Brazilian energy system, through an analysis of recent reports. Cases of impacts on hydropower, power transmission and distribution, bioenergy crops and residential cooling demand in recent years are assessed. Finally, the challenges of energy planning in the face of climate change are analyzed and adaptation measures for the energy system are proposed, pointing out possible repercussions on water, food, socio-environmental and climate security.Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which can affect energy systems. Thus, this study aims to evaluate impacts of meteorological events on the Brazilian energy system, through an analysis of recent reports. Cases of impacts on hydropower, power transmission and distribution, bioenergy crops and residential cooling demand in recent years are assessed. Finally, the challenges of energy planning in the face of climate change are analyzed and adaptation measures for the energy system are proposed, pointing out possible repercussions on water, food, socio-environmental and climate security

Impacts of extreme climate events on Brazilian agricultural production

Brazilian agricultural production stands out in world food security, accounting for a large part of the food produced worldwide. However, occurrence of extreme climate events is a challenge for the sector across the country. Thus, this study aims to assess extreme climate events impacts on Brazilian agricultural production. The loss index was calculated using crop data made available by the IBGE from 2005 to 2017, while data on the occurrence of extreme climate events (2002-2017) was obtained from literature. Data related to PROAGRO (2010-2018) and the Crop Assurance Program (2002-2016) were obtained from reports made available by the relevant agencies. Results showed high drought-induced production losses, mainly maize and beans produced in the Caatinga biome, and soybean and wheat in the Southeastern and Southern regions of the country. Hail and frost events also caused reductions in soybean and rice production in the Southeastern and Southern regions. Those impacts on the Brazilian agricultural production, in different regions, might have serious consequences on the availability and access of food to the population in the country.Brazilian agricultural production stands out in world food security, accounting for a large part of the food produced worldwide. However, occurrence of extreme climate events is a challenge for the sector across the country. Thus, this study aims to assess extreme climate events impacts on Brazilian agricultural production. The loss index was calculated using crop data made available by the IBGE from 2005 to 2017, while data on the occurrence of extreme climate events (2002-2017) was obtained from literature. Data related to PROAGRO (2010-2018) and the Crop Assurance Program (2002-2016) were obtained from reports made available by the relevant agencies. Results showed high drought-induced production losses, mainly maize and beans produced in the Caatinga biome, and soybean and wheat in the Southeastern and Southern regions of the country. Hail and frost events also caused reductions in soybean and rice production in the Southeastern and Southern regions. Those impacts on the Brazilian agricultural production, in different regions, might have serious consequences on the availability and access of food to the population in the country

Future rainfall and temperature changes in Brazil under global warming levels of 1.5ºC, 2ºC and 4ºC

The present study analyzes the impacts of global warming of 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels in the Brazilian territory. Climate change projected among the different global warming levels has been analyzed for rainfall, temperature and extreme climate indices. The projections are derived from the global climate model HadGEM3-A, from the High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) international project, from the United Kingdom, forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration of a subset of six CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) global climate models and considering the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) emissions scenario throughout the 21st century. Projections indicate robust differences in regional climate characteristics. These differences include changes: in the minimum and maximum air temperature close to the surface to all the country’s regions, in extremes of heat, particularly in northern Brazil, in the occurrence of heavy rainfall (Southern and Southeastern regions), and in the probability of droughts and rain deficits in some regions (Northern and Northeastern Brazil).The present study analyzes the impacts of global warming of 1.5ºC, 2ºC, and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels in the Brazilian territory. Climate change projected among the different global warming levels has been analyzed for rainfall, temperature and extreme climate indices. The projections are derived from the global climate model HadGEM3-A, from the High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) international project, from the United Kingdom, forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration of a subset of six CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) global climate models and considering the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) emissions scenario throughout the 21st century. Projections indicate robust differences in regional climate characteristics. These differences include changes: in the minimum and maximum air temperature close to the surface to all the country’s regions, in extremes of heat, particularly in northern Brazil, in the occurrence of heavy rainfall (Southern and Southeastern regions), and in the probability of droughts and rain deficits in some regions (Northern and Northeastern Brazil)