SYMBOL MODEL DATABASE and ANALYSES for PUBLIC FINANCE SUSTAINABILITY

In the present report, we describe the main steps we have taken in order to create a sound database for the European Union Member States banking system. The final goal is to use this database as source for input variables of SYMBOL (SYstemic Model of Banking Originated Losses) model, developed by the Join Research Centre of Ispra in cooperation with the European Commission Direcotrate General for Internal Market and Services and experts from academia, for monitoring financial crises. SYMBOL simulates potential crises in the banking sector under various assumptions, and it allows assessing the cumulative effects of different regulatory measures (e.g. higher capital requirements, strengthened deposit insurance and introduction of resolution funds) and their most effective combinations. It uses items in bank's balance sheet to estimate the potential losses for a given banking system via a Monte Carlo analysis. The model is flexible and can be deployed either on a single country or on a set of financial institutions sharing common features. The report also shows an application of SYMBOL for assessing the impact on public finance of a crisis in the baning sector and compares the current regulatory framework with a future scenario where the new capital requirements set in Basel III and an effective framework for bank resolution are in place.JRC.G.1-Scientific Support to Financial Analysi

Change in the DGS Level of Coverage Due to the 2008 Financial Crisis: First Basic Impact Evaluation

Scope of this report is the assessment of the impact of increasing the DGS level of coverage for banks¿ deposits (from current levels up to 50K¿ or possibly 100K¿) as a consequnce of the 2008 financial crisis.JRC.G.9-Econometrics and statistical support to antifrau

JRC technical work supporting Commission second level legislation on risk based contributions to the (single) resolution fund

JRC supported the DG MARKT by developing quantitative analyses for the preparation of the second level legislation on bank contributions to be paid to the EU national Resolution Funds and to the Single Resolution Fund SRF for countries participating to the Banking Union. The present report summarizes all the extensive analyses on the calculation of banks contributions supporting the whole policy process. All analyses were based on a dataset that JRC built assembling individual bank unconsolidated balance sheet data, provided directly by the MS. JRC developed the technical details to measure the risk profile of each bank. Starting from a selection of balance sheet indicators, which account for the different aspects of each bank activity, the methodology aggregates them into a single composite risk indicator. The risk indicator is then combined with the bank size measure to compute the share of aggregated contribution each bank joining the fund would pay. JRC also investigated the decrease in contributions of applying a special treatment for the computation of the small banks’ contributions: these banks will not pay contributions based on their risk profile but will be instead lump-sum contributions, depending on their size only. JRC assessed the sensitivity of the distribution of contributions when changing some elements of the overall mechanism used to measure risk and compute contributions. Finally, following the discussion at the political level, JRC also assessed some technical issues related to the calculation of the contribution base and it tested the impact on banks contributions of different options for the phasing in of the single resolution fund.JRC.G.1-Financial and Economic Analysi

The EU sovereign debt crisis: potential effects on EU banking systems and policy options

This paper aims at investigating some of the critical issues highlighted by the sovereign debt crisis in European Union Member States. The goal is twofold: 1) Quantify, via a development of the SYMBOL model here firstly presented, the impact in terms of higher risk for the EU banking systems of haircuts of sovereign debts of some EU MS, which have been particularly touched by the sovereign crisis; 2) evaluate and compare the policy options which have been adopted to address the issue. In particular the analysis compares the measures within the Basel III Accord, which increases the quality and quantity of capital that banks should set aside to cover from unexpected losses, with the agreement on bank recapitalisation and funding reached by the European Council in October 2011, which responded to the urgent consequences of the sovereign bonds crisis in the EU. The analysis is performed on 65 of the large EU banking groups identified by the European Banking Authority, via a futher development of the SYMBOL model that allows estimating the banks PD without Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that the haircuts on sovereign debts of EU MS in crisis would heavily worsen the stability of their banking systems but could also sometimes affect financial stability of other EU countries. We also show that the creation of a temporary capital buffer in the form of a capital target, necessitated by the exceptional circumstances prevailing in some EU MS, represent a step forward to Basel III rules.JRC.G.1-Scientific Support to Financial Analysi

Financial Activities Taxes and Banks' Systemic Risk

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the risks posed by individual banks to the entire banking system. Next to the issue of determining individual contributions to systemic risk, the question of additional taxes on the financial sector has been debated. This paper uses SYMBOL, a micro-simulation model of the banking system, to estimate these individual contributions and compares them to the potential individual tax liabilities of banks under the assumption of a Financial Activity Tax.JRC.G.1-Scientific Support to Financial Analysi

Search for the dark photon in π0π^0 decays

A sample of $1.69 imes 10^7$ fully reconstructed $pi^0 ogamma e^+e^-$ decay candidates collected by the NA48/2 experiment at CERN in 2003--2004 is analysed to search for the dark photon ($A'$) production in the $pi^0 ogamma A'$ decay followed by the prompt $A' o e^+e^-$ decay. No signal is observed, and an exclusion region in the plane of the dark photon mass $m_A'$ and mixing parameter $arepsilon^2$ is established. The obtained upper limits on $arepsilon^2$ are more stringent than the previous limits in the mass range 9~ m MeV/c^2<70~ m MeV/c^2. The NA48/2 sensitivity to the dark photon production in the $K^pm opi^pm A'$ decay is also evaluated

Ex situ phytoremediation trial of Sardinian mine waste using a pioneer plant species

The mitigation of metals contamination is currently a crucial issue for the reclamation of mine sites. Indeed, mine wastes are often disposed in open dumps and consequently pollutants are subjected to dispersion in the surrounding areas. In this study, the potential use of Helichrysum microphyllum subsp. tyrrhenicum for phytostabilization was evaluated in ex situ conditions. Ninety specimens were randomly selected and were planted in three substrates (reference substrate, mine waste materials, and mine wastes with compost). Mineralogical compositions of substrates, rhizosphere, and roots were assessed through X-ray diffraction (XRD). Zn, Pb, and Cd concentrations of substrates, rhizosphere, soil pore waters, and plant tissues were determined. The phytostabilization potential was determined through the application of biological accumulation coefficient (BAC), biological concentration factor (BCF), and translocation factor (TF). Moreover, survival and biometric parameters were assessed on plant specimens. The polluted substrates and related rhizosphere materials were mainly composed of dolomite, quartz, pyrite, and phyllosilicate. Zn was the most abundant metal in substrates, rhizosphere, and soil pore waters. XRD analysis on roots showed the presence of amorphous cellulose and quartz and Zn was the most abundant metal in plant tissues. H. microphyllum subsp. tyrrhenicum restricts the accumulation of the metals into roots limiting their translocation in aereal parts, indicating its potential use as phytostabilizer (BCF, BAC, TF &lt; 1). Survival and growth data showed a great adaptability to different substrates, with an evident positive effect of the implementation of compost which increased the plant survival and decreased the metals uptake into roots

Epidemiology and genetic characterization of <i>Border Disease Virus</i> circulating in Sardinia

Border Disease Virus (BDV), a pestivirus from the Flaviviridae family, is an important pathogen of sheep and goats responsible for significant losses in farms around the world. In spite of the relevance of this pathogen there are only a few epidemiological studies on BDV infection and, as a consequence, the economic impact on small ruminant productions is probably under-estimated. The aims of this study are i) to determine the distribution of BDV in small ruminant farms in Sardinia and genetically characterize circulating strains ii) analyze the relation between seroprevalence, Somatic Cells Count (SCC) an milk yeld. ELISA was performed using “BVDV/MD/BDV p80 Protein Antibody Test Kit” (IDEXX) on serum of bulk tank milk (BTM) samples collected from Sardinian sheep flocks and goat herds between spring 2014 and 2015. The number of sampled farms corresponded to 8.5% of all registered farms in Sardinia. RNA was isolated using Qiamp Viral RNA mini kit from the cellular fraction of each ELISA positive BTV sample and amplified by rt-PCR using complementary primers to a highly conserved region in the untranslated regions (UTRs) of the viral genome. The amplicons were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. Geographic distribution of collected specimen, seroprevalence and virological positive samples were analyzed via GIS (ESRI ARCGIS 10.3). ELISA screening shows a seroprevalence of 8.3% among goat farms and 10.5% among ovine farms. Ten from the ELISA positive samples were found rt-PCR positive. The sequence analysis indicates that all the amplified samples match with BDV genomes and the phylogenetic analysis revealed that all the viruses clustered in the same group classified as BDV-7. BDV-7 is the only group isolated in Sardinia so far

Review of the SYMBOL model

An integral part of the model quality control and quality assurance at the European Commission is a scientific peer-review of models, including those developed and used by its Directorate-General Joint Research Centre (JRC). The present reports details the outcome of the review of the SYstemic Model of Banking Originated Losses (SYMBOL), which was carried out by an external scientific Review Panel closely following ‘Guidelines for the review of models used in support of EU policies’. The review aimed at verifying and consolidating the scientific credibility of SYMBOL and identifying most promising/relevant areas for a future model development. The report includes also a first reaction from the SYMBOL team, detailing among others how Review Panel’s suggestions will be addressed.JRC.I.1-Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluatio

Topical natural-origin polynucleotides in radiation-induced skin and mucosal toxicity

Seventy to 90 percent of patients who have received radiation treatment struggle with radiation skin and mucosal toxicity. The inflicted damage to progenitor cells and local microcirculation makes it more likely that wounds, infections, and fibrosis may occur; lesions of variable severity often co-exist. Acute erythema, hyperpigmentation, and mild desquamation usually wane in weeks and require only minor treatment. Conversely, the management of persistent radiation dermatitis and telangiectasia remains unsatisfactory; chronic lesions may progress to tissue atrophy and disfiguring fibrosis. Protrophic, natural-origin polynucleotides, formulated as Class III medical devices, have long shown to be a reliable topical option to stop the progression of radiation-related lesions. The present review illustrates the rationale of polynucleotides in skin and mucosal radiodermatitis management. It also illustrates the clinical results in a series of exploratory clinical studies carried out with polynucleotide devices over the last decade. The examined studies open the way to the high-level clinical research program, which will develop over the next years