Breeding value estimation with incomplete marker data

International audienc

Bayesian estimation of dispersion parameters with a reduced animal model including polygenic and QTL effects

International audienc

QTLMAS 2009: simulated dataset

Background - The simulation of the data for the QTLMAS 2009 Workshop is described. Objective was to simulate observations from a growth curve which was influenced by a number of QTL. Results - The data consisted of markers, phenotypes and pedigree. Genotypes of 453 markers, distributed over 5 chromosomes of 1 Morgan each, were simulated for 2,025 individuals. From those, 25 individuals were parents of the other 2,000 individuals. The 25 parents were genetically related. Phenotypes were simulated according to a logistic growth curve and were made available for 1,000 of the 2,000 offspring individuals. The logistic growth curve was specified by three parameters. Each parameter was influenced by six Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL), positioned at the five chromosomes. For each parameter, one QTL had a large effect and five QTL had small effects. Variance of large QTL was five times the variance of small QTL. Simulated data was made available at http://www.qtlmas2009.wur.nl/UK/Dataset

Adding gene transcripts into genomic prediction improves accuracy and reveals sampling time dependence.

Recent developments allowed generating multiple high-quality \u27omics\u27 data that could increase the predictive performance of genomic prediction for phenotypes and genetic merit in animals and plants. Here, we have assessed the performance of parametric and nonparametric models that leverage transcriptomics in genomic prediction for 13 complex traits recorded in 478 animals from an outbred mouse population. Parametric models were implemented using the best linear unbiased prediction, while nonparametric models were implemented using the gradient boosting machine algorithm. We also propose a new model named GTCBLUP that aims to remove between-omics-layer covariance from predictors, whereas its counterpart GTBLUP does not do that. While gradient boosting machine models captured more phenotypic variation, their predictive performance did not exceed the best linear unbiased prediction models for most traits. Models leveraging gene transcripts captured higher proportions of the phenotypic variance for almost all traits when these were measured closer to the moment of measuring gene transcripts in the liver. In most cases, the combination of layers was not able to outperform the best single-omics models to predict phenotypes. Using only gene transcripts, the gradient boosting machine model was able to outperform best linear unbiased prediction for most traits except body weight, but the same pattern was not observed when using both single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes and gene transcripts. Although the GTCBLUP model was not able to produce the most accurate phenotypic predictions, it showed the highest accuracies for breeding values for 9 out of 13 traits. We recommend using the GTBLUP model for prediction of phenotypes and using the GTCBLUP for prediction of breeding values

Comparison of analyses of the QTLMAS XIII common dataset. I: genomic selection

Background - Genomic selection, the use of markers across the whole genome, receives increasing amounts of attention and is having more and more impact on breeding programs. Development of statistical and computational methods to estimate breeding values based on markers is a very active area of research. A simulated dataset was analyzed by participants of the QTLMAS XIII workshop, allowing a comparison of the ability of different methods to estimate genomic breeding values. Methods - A best case scenario was analyzed by the organizers where QTL genotypes were known. Participants submitted estimated breeding values for 1000 unphenotyped individuals together with a description of the applied method(s). The submitted breeding values were evaluated for correlation with the simulated values (accuracy), rank correlation of the best 10% of individuals and error in predictions. Bias was tested by regression of simulated on estimated breeding values. Results - The accuracy obtained from the best case scenario was 0.94. Six research groups submitted 19 sets of estimated breeding values. Methods that assumed the same variance for markers showed accuracies, measured as correlations between estimated and simulated values, ranging from 0.75 to 0.89 and rank correlations between 0.58 and 0.70. Methods that allowed different marker variances showed accuracies ranging from 0.86 to 0.94 and rank correlations between 0.69 and 0.82. Methods assuming equal marker variances were generally more biased and showed larger prediction errors. Conclusions - The best performing methods achieved very high accuracies, close to accuracies achieved in a best case scenario where QTL genotypes were known without error. Methods that allowed different marker variances generally outperformed methods that assumed equal marker variances. Genomic selection methods performed well compared to traditional, pedigree only, methods; all methods showed higher accuracies than those obtained for breeding values estimated solely on pedigree relationship

Prediction performance of linear models and gradient boosting machine on complex phenotypes in outbred mice.

We compared the performance of linear (GBLUP, BayesB, and elastic net) methods to a nonparametric tree-based ensemble (gradient boosting machine) method for genomic prediction of complex traits in mice. The dataset used contained genotypes for 50,112 SNP markers and phenotypes for 835 animals from 6 generations. Traits analyzed were bone mineral density, body weight at 10, 15, and 20 weeks, fat percentage, circulating cholesterol, glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and urine creatinine. The youngest generation was used as a validation subset, and predictions were based on all older generations. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions for animals in the validation subset against their adjusted phenotypes. Linear models outperformed gradient boosting machine for 7 out of 10 traits. For bone mineral density, cholesterol, and glucose, the gradient boosting machine model showed better prediction accuracy and lower relative root mean squared error than the linear models. Interestingly, for these 3 traits, there is evidence of a relevant portion of phenotypic variance being explained by epistatic effects. Using a subset of top markers selected from a gradient boosting machine model helped for some of the traits to improve the accuracy of prediction when these were fitted into linear and gradient boosting machine models. Our results indicate that gradient boosting machine is more strongly affected by data size and decreased connectedness between reference and validation sets than the linear models. Although the linear models outperformed gradient boosting machine for the polygenic traits, our results suggest that gradient boosting machine is a competitive method to predict complex traits with assumed epistatic effects

Predicting Flowering Behavior and Exploring Its Genetic Determinism in an Apple Multi-family Population Based on Statistical Indices and Simplified Phenotyping

Irregular flowering over years is commonly observed in fruit trees. The early prediction of tree behavior is highly desirable in breeding programmes. This study aims at performing such predictions, combining simplified phenotyping and statistics methods. Sequences of vegetative vs. floral annual shoots (AS) were observed along axes in trees belonging to five apple related full-sib families. Sequences were analyzed using Markovian and linear mixed models including year and site effects. Indices of flowering irregularity, periodicity and synchronicity were estimated, at tree and axis scales. They were used to predict tree behavior and detect QTL with a Bayesian pedigree-based analysis, using an integrated genetic map containing 6,849 SNPs. The combination of a Biennial Bearing Index (BBI) with an autoregressive coefficient (γg) efficiently predicted and classified the genotype behaviors, despite few misclassifications. Four QTLs common to BBIs and γg and one for synchronicity were highlighted and revealed the complex genetic architecture of the traits. Irregularity resulted from high AS synchronism, whereas regularity resulted from either asynchronous locally alternating or continual regular AS flowering. A relevant and time-saving method, based on a posteriori sampling of axes and statistical indices is proposed, which is efficient to evaluate the tree breeding values for flowering regularity and could be transferred to other species