On KPSS with GARCH errors

In this paper we discuss the finite sample behavior of the KPSS test in the presence of conditionally heteroskedastic errors. We confirm that under stationary GARCH errors the asymptotics of the KPSS remains valid. However, in finite samples we observe a slight size distortion and a power distortion. Interestingly, IGARCH errors do not seem to affect the size of the test, however they may often cause a substantial loss of power.asymptotic and finite sample properties

The effect of corruption on FDI:a parametric and non-parametric analysis

This paper analyses the effect of corruption on Multinational Enterprises' (MNEs) incentives to undertake FDI in a particular country. We contribute to the existing literature by modelling the relationship between corruption and FDI using both parametric and non-parametric methods. We report that the impact of corruption on FDI stock is different for the different quantiles of the FDI stock distribution. This is a characteristic that could not be captured in previous studies which used only parametric methods. After controlling for the location selection process of MNEs and other host country characteristics, the result from both parametric and non-parametric analyses offer some support for the ‘helping-hand’ role of corruption

Threshold Regression in Heterogeneous Panel Data with Interactive Fixed Effects

This paper introduces unit-specific heterogeneity in panel data threshold regression. Both slope coefficients and threshold parameters are allowed to vary by unit. The heterogeneous threshold parameters manifest via a unit-specific empirical quantile transformation of a common underlying threshold parameter which is estimated efficiently from the whole panel. In the errors, the unobserved heterogeneity of the panel takes the general form of interactive fixed effects. The newly introduced parameter heterogeneity has implications for model identification, estimation, interpretation, and asymptotic inference. The assumption of a shrinking threshold magnitude now implies shrinking heterogeneity and leads to faster estimator rates of convergence than previously encountered. The asymptotic theory for the proposed estimators is derived and Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate its usefulness in small samples. The new model is employed to examine the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and it is found that the trade liberalization policies of the 80's significantly impacted cross-country capital mobility.Comment: 25 pages, 1 figur

Edmunds.com v. Humankind Design

JEL classification: C32, C5

Volatility Switching in Shanghai Stock Exchange: Does regulation help reduce volatility?

This paper investigates volatility switching in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE hereafter,) using several recently developed techniques. They can be categorized into CUSUM type tests and Markov-Switching ARCH models. By detecting and dating switches with these models, we are able to show the volatility dynamics in SSE. Investigating the events in SSE around the switching date suggests that regulation improvements significantly reduce the volatility of the underlying market. Furthermore, the empirical results show that outliers can have significant impact on the conclusion and thus should properly be removed

Change Point Detection in the Conditional Correlation Structure of Multivariate Volatility Models

We propose semi-parametric CUSUM tests to detect a change point in the correlation structures of non--linear multivariate models with dynamically evolving volatilities. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed statistics are derived under mild conditions. We discuss the applicability of our method to the most often used models, including constant conditional correlation (CCC), dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), BEKK, corrected DCC and factor models. Our simulations show that, our tests have good size and power properties. Also, even though the near--unit root property distorts the size and power of tests, de--volatizing the data by means of appropriate multivariate volatility models can correct such distortions. We apply the semi--parametric CUSUM tests in the attempt to date the occurrence of financial contagion from the U.S. to emerging markets worldwide during the great recession