Average rates of return, working capital, and NPV-consistency in project appraisal: A sensitivity analysis approach

In project appraisal under uncertainty, the economic reliability of a measure of financial efficiency depends on its strong NPV-consistency, meaning that the performance metric (i) supplies the same recommendation in accept-reject decisions as the NPV, (ii) ranks competing projects in the same way as the NPV, (iii) has the same sensitivity to perturbations in the input data as the NPV. In real-life projects, financial efficiency is greatly affected by the management of the working capital. Using a sensitivity analysis approach and taking into explicit account the role of working capital, we show that the average return on investment (ROI) is not strongly NPV-consistent in accept-reject decisions if the working capital is uncertain and changes under changes in revenues and costs. Also, it is not strongly NPV-consistent in project ranking. We also show that the internal rate of return (IRR) is not strongly NPV-consistent and economic analysis may even turn out to be impossible, owing to possible nonexistence and multiplicity caused by perturbations in the input data, as well as to possible shifts in the financial meaning of IRR under changes in the project’s value drivers. We introduce the straight-line rate of return (SLRR), based on the notion of average rate of change, which overcomes all the problems encountered by average ROI and IRR: It always exists, is unique, strongly NPV-consistent for both accept-reject decisions and project ranking, and has an unambiguous financial nature

Average rates of return, working capital, and NPV-consistency in project appraisal: A sensitivity analysis approach

In project appraisal under uncertainty, the economic reliability of a measure of financial efficiency depends on its strong NPV-consistency, meaning that the performance metric (i) supplies the same recommendation in accept-reject decisions as the NPV, (ii) ranks competing projects in the same way as the NPV, (iii) has the same sensitivity to perturbations in the input data as the NPV. In real-life projects, financial efficiency is greatly affected by the management of the working capital. Using a sensitivity analysis approach and taking into explicit account the role of working capital, we show that the average return on investment (ROI) is not strongly NPV-consistent in accept-reject decisions if the working capital is uncertain and changes under changes in revenues and costs. Also, it is not strongly NPV-consistent in project ranking. We also show that the internal rate of return (IRR) is not strongly NPV-consistent and economic analysis may even turn out to be impossible, owing to possible nonexistence and multiplicity caused by perturbations in the input data, as well as to possible shifts in the financial meaning of IRR under changes in the project’s value drivers. We introduce the straight-line rate of return (SLRR), based on the notion of average rate of change, which overcomes all the problems encountered by average ROI and IRR: It always exists, is unique, strongly NPV-consistent for both accept-reject decisions and project ranking, and has an unambiguous financial nature

Sortino(γ): A Modified Sortino Ratio With Adjusted Threshold

A portfolio’s Sortino ratio is strongly affected by the risk-free vs. risky assets mix, except for the case where the threshold, T is equal to the risk-free rate. Therefore, if T differs from the risk-free rate, the portfolio’s Sortino ratio could potentially be increased by merely changing the mix of the risk-free and the risky components. The widely used Sharpe ratio, on the other hand, does not share this caveat. We introduce a modified Sortino ratio, Sortino(γ), which is invariant concerning the portfolio’s risk-free vs. risky assets mix and eliminates the above deficiency. The selected threshold T(γ), mimics the portfolio composition in the sense that it equals to the risk-free rate plus γ times the portfolio’s equity risk premium. Higher selected γ reflects higher risk/loss aversion. We propose a procedure for optimizing the composition of the risky portion of the portfolio to maximize the Sortino(γ) ratio. In addition, we show that Sortino(γ) is consistent with first and second-order stochastic dominance with riskless asset rules

Project appraisal and the Intrinsic Rate of Return

Building upon Magni (2011)’s approach, we propose a new rate of return measuring a project’s economic profitability. It is called the intrinsic rate of return (IROR). It is defined as the ratio of project return to project’s intrinsic value. The IROR approach decomposes the NPV into project scale and economic efficiency. In particular, NPV is found as the product of the project’s total invested capital and the excess rate of return, obtained as the difference between the IROR and the minimum attractive rate of return (MARR). This approach provides correct project ranking and is capable of managing time-varying costs of capital. In case of levered projects, shareholder value creation is captured by the equity IROR, which we call Intrinsic Return On Equity (IROE) (net income divided by total equity capital invested). If the project is unlevered, the IROE and the IROR lead to the same decision; if the project is levered, and the nominal value of debt is not equal to the market value of debt, the IROE should be preferred to project IROR

Investment decisions and sensitivity analysis: NPV-consistency of rates of return

Investment decisions may be evaluated via several different metrics/criteria, which are functions of a vector of value drivers. The economic significance and the reliability of a metric depend on its compatibility with the Net Present Value (NPV). Traditionally, a metric is said to be NPV-consistent if it is coherent with NPV in signalling value creation. This paper makes use of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) for measuring coherence between rates of return and NPV. In particular, it introduces a new, stronger definition of NPV-consistency that takes into account the influence of value drivers on the metric output. A metric is strongly NPV-consistent if it signals value creation and the ranking of the value drivers in terms of impact on the output is the same as that provided by the NPV. The degree of (in)coherence is calculated with Spearman's (1904) correlation coefficient and Iman and Conover's (1987) top-down coefficient. We focus on the class of AIRRs (Magni 2010, 2013) and show that the average Return On Investment (ROI) enjoys strong NPV-consistency under several (possibly all) methods of Sensitivity Analysis

The accounting-and-finance of a solar photovoltaic plant: Economic efficiency of a replacement project

In this work we illustrate a simple logical framework serving the purpose of assessing the economic profitability and measuring value creation in a solar photovoltaic (PhV) project and, in general, in a replacement project where the cash-flow stream is nonnegative, with some strictly positive cash flows. We use the projected accounting data to compute the average ROI, building upon Magni (2011, 2019) (see also Magni and Marchioni 2018), which enables retrieving information on the role of the project’s economic efficiency and the role of the project scale on increasing shareholders’ wealth. The average ROI is a genuinely internal measure and does not suffer from the pitfalls of the internal rate of return (IRR), which may be particularly critical in replacement projects such as the purchase of a PhV plant aimed at replacing conventional retail supplies of electricity

Physiological and Biochemical Adaptive Traits in Leaves of Four Citrus Species Grown in an Italian Charterhouse

Citrus trees are a very important crops that are cultivated worldwide, but not much knowledge is known about the ecophysiological responses to climatic changes in trees under natural conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate their adaptive capacity in response to seasonal phenological and environmental changes. The trial included Citrus trees (sweet orange, bitter orange, lemon, mandarin) growing under non-regular cropping conditions in a Monumental Charterhouse in Tuscany, in a subtropical Mediterranean climate with hot summer conditions. During a 1-year field trial, we determined the variations in chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and leaf biochemical traits (content of chlorophylls and carotenoids, total phenolic content (TPC), total antioxidant capacity (TAC), and total non-structural carbohydrates). In all Citrus spp., interspecific mean values of photochemical efficiency peaked during the summer, while a marked photoinhibition occurred in the winter in concomitance with higher interspecific mean values of leaf TPC, TAC, and non-structural carbohydrates. The trees showed the pivotal role played by photosynthetic acclimation as a survival strategy to tolerate abiotic stress in the climate change hotspot of Mediterranean environment. This study is included in a wider project aimed at a new valorization of Citrus trees as genetic resource and its by-products with added-value applications for innovative functional foods

Performance and reliability degradation of CMOS Image Sensors in Back-Side Illuminated configuration

We present a systematic characterization of wafer-level reliability dedicated test structures in Back-Side-Illuminated CMOS Image Sensors. Noise and electrical measurements performed at different steps of the fabrication process flow, definitely demonstrate that the wafer flipping/bonding/thinning and VIA opening proper of the Back-Side-Illuminated configuration cause the creation of oxide donor-like border traps. Respect to conventional Front-Side-Illuminated CMOS Image Sensors, the presence of these traps causes degradation of the transistors electrical performance, altering the oxide electric field and shifting the flat-band voltage, and strongly degrades also reliability. Results from Time-Dependent Dielectric Breakdown and Negative Bias Temperature Instability measurements outline the impact of those border traps on the lifetime prediction