Factors predicting distribution and threat for island and continental birds

In this study I look at factors that contribute to survival and extinction of birds on islands and in continental regions. I introduce the work in Part 1. In Part 2,1test MacArthur and Wilson\u27s theory of island biogeography with a long and complete data set. I find that indeed, species number helps to predict bird immigration to and extinction from the islands surrounding Great Britain. Area of the island and distance from the mainland do not contribute to immigration or extinction probability for this particular data set. In Part 31 examine the risk of extinction to passerine birds in lowland, montane, and island regions of the NewWorld. Lowland species with breeding ranges of not more than 100,000 km2 are much more likely to be threatened than montane and island species with similar ranges. This increased vulnerability of extinction has important implications for conservation: areas rich in lowland species with small ranges hold many candidates for the endangered species list. In Part 41 follow up with an assessment of factors in combination that contribute to extinction risk for passerine species. I look at width of elevational band, range size, abundance and lowland/montane/island residence in particular. I find that once I have factor abundance and range in together, place of residence and width of elevation band are not significant in predicting extinction risk for New World passerines.Last, in Part 51 test for phylogenetic predictors of threat. I examine two simple indices, number of monotypic genera and number of polytypic genera; unusually many monotypic genera within the threatened New World passerines would indicate that there were many relict taxa that were contributing to the number of threatened species. Unusually many polytypic genera in the threatened NewWorld passerines would indicate that genera with the capacity to generate many new species are disproportionately threatened, either because they have tiny ranges, or because they are located in regions of high human impact. I found neither effect in our data set. The threatened New World passerines are phylogenetically normal

Species in Vernal Pools: ANOVA

A one-way analysis of variance exercise using data on species diversities from vernal pools.Data are from vernal pools in Willowbrook Park (adjacent to College of Staten Island\u27s campus) in spring. The typical ANOVA gives a straightforward result (significant anova, easily-interpreted Tukey-Kramer analysis). This data set requires more nuanced interpretation, as the ANOVA is marginally significant, and Tukey-Kramer yields one significant pairwise comparison between groups. Relative lack of variation within groups explains this apparent enigma

Application of habitat thresholds in conservation: Considerations, limitations, and future directions

AbstractHabitat thresholds are often interpreted as the minimum required area of habitat, and subsequently promoted as conservation targets in natural resource policies and planning. Unfortunately, several recent reviews and messages of caution on the application of habitat thresholds in conservation have largely fallen on deaf ears, leading to a dangerous oversimplification and generalization of the concept. We highlight the prevalence of oversimplification/over-generalization of results from habitat threshold studies in policy documentation, the consequences of such over-generalization, and directions for habitat threshold studies that have conservation applications without risking overgeneralization. We argue that in order to steer away from misapplication of habitat thresholds in conservation, we should not focus on generalized nominal habitat values (i.e., amounts or percentages of habitat), but on the use of habitat threshold modeling for comparative exercises of area-sensitivity or the identification of environmental dangers. In addition, we should remain focused on understanding the processes and mechanisms underlying species responses to habitat change. Finally, studies could that focus on deriving nominal value threshold amounts should do so only if the thresholds are detailed, species-specific, and translated to conservation targets particular to the study area only

Climate and changing winter distribution of alcids in the Northwest Atlantic

Population level impacts upon seabirds from changing climate are increasingly evident, and include effects on phenology, migration, dispersal, annual survivorship, and reproduction. Most population data on seabirds derive from nesting colonies; documented climate impacts on winter ecology are scarce. We studied interannual variability in winter abundance of six species of alcids (Charadriiformes, Alcidae) from a 58-year time series of data collected in Massachusetts 1954–2011. We used counts of birds taken during fall and winter from coastal vantage points. Counts were made by amateur birders, but coverage was consistent in timing and location. We found significant association between winter abundance of all six species of alcids and climate, indexed by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at two temporal scales: (1) significant linear trends at the 58-year scale of the time series; and (2) shorter term fluctuations corresponding to the 5–8 year periodicity of NAO. Thus, variation in winter abundance of all six species of alcids was significantly related to the combined short-term and longer-term components of variation in NAO. Two low-Arctic species (Atlantic Puffin and Black Guillemot) peaked during NAO positive years, while two high Arctic species (Dovekie and Thick-billed Murre) peaked during NAO negative years. For Common Murres and Razorbills, southward shifts in winter distribution have been accompanied by southward expansion of breeding range, and increase within the core of the range. The proximate mechanism governing these changes is unclear, but, as for most other species of seabirds whose distributions have changed with climate, seems likely to be through their prey

Climate and changing winter distribution of alcids in the Northwest Atlantic

Population level impacts upon seabirds from changing climate are increasingly evident, and include effects on phenology, migration, dispersal, annual survivorship, and reproduction. Most population data on seabirds derive from nesting colonies; documented climate impacts on winter ecology are scarce. We studied interannual variability in winter abundance of six species of alcids (Charadriiformes, Alcidae) from a 58-year time series of data collected in Massachusetts 1954–2011. We used counts of birds taken during fall and winter from coastal vantage points. Counts were made by amateur birders, but coverage was consistent in timing and location. We found significant association between winter abundance of all six species of alcids and climate, indexed by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at two temporal scales: (1) significant linear trends at the 58-year scale of the time series; and (2) shorter term fluctuations corresponding to the 5–8 year periodicity of NAO. Thus, variation in winter abundance of all six species of alcids was significantly related to the combined short-term and longer-term components of variation in NAO. Two low-Arctic species (Atlantic Puffin and Black Guillemot) peaked during NAO positive years, while two high Arctic species (Dovekie and Thick-billed Murre) peaked during NAO negative years. For Common Murres and Razorbills, southward shifts in winter distribution have been accompanied by southward expansion of breeding range, and increase within the core of the range. The proximate mechanism governing these changes is unclear, but, as for most other species of seabirds whose distributions have changed with climate, seems likely to be through their prey

Non-fatal injuries in rural Burkina Faso amongst older adults, disease burden and health system responsiveness:a cross-sectional household survey

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiology of injury as well as patient-reported health system responsiveness following injury and how this compares with non-injured patient experience, in older individuals in rural Burkina Faso. DESIGN: Cross-sectional household survey. Secondary analysis of the CRSN Heidelberg Ageing Study dataset. SETTING: Rural Burkina Faso. PARTICIPANTS: 3028 adults, over 40, from multiple ethnic groups, were randomly sampled from the 2015 Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance Site census. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was incidence of injury. Secondary outcomes were incidence of injury related disability and patient-reported health system responsiveness following injury. RESULTS: 7.7% (232/3028) of the population reported injury in the preceding 12 months. In multivariable analyses, younger age, male sex, highest wealth quintile, an abnormal Generalised Anxiety Disorder score and lower Quality of Life score were all associated with injury. The most common mechanism of injury was being struck or hit by an object, 32.8%. In multivariable analysis, only education was significantly negatively associated with odds of disability (OR 0.407, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.997). Across all survey participants, 3.9% (119/3028) reported their most recent care seeking episode was following injury, rather than for another condition. Positive experience and satisfaction with care were reported following injury, with shorter median wait times (10 vs 20 min, p=0.002) and longer consultation times (20 vs 15 min, p=0.002) than care for another reason. Injured patients were also asked to return to health facilities more often than those seeking care for another reason, 81.4% (95% CI 73.1% to 87.9%) vs 54.8% (95% CI 49.9% to 53.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Injury is an important disease burden in this older adult rural low-income and middle-income country population. Further research could inform preventative strategies, including safer rural farming methods, explore the association between adverse mental health and injury, and strengthen health system readiness to provide quality care

The epidemiology of multimorbidity in conditions of extreme poverty: a population-based study of older adults in rural Burkina Faso

Introduction Multimorbidity is a health issue of increasing importance worldwide, and is likely to become particularly problematic in low-income countries (LICs) as they undergo economic, demographic and epidemiological transitions. Knowledge of the burden and consequences of multimorbidity in LICs is needed to inform appropriate interventions. Methods A cross-sectional household survey collected data on morbidities and frailty, disability, quality of life and physical performance on individuals aged over 40 years of age living in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System area in northwestern Burkina Faso. We defined multimorbidity as the occurrence of two or more conditions, and evaluated the prevalence of and whether this was concordant (conditions in the same morbidity domain of communicable, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) or mental health (MH)) or discordant (conditions in different morbidity domains) multimorbidity. Finally, we fitted multivariable regression models to determine associated factors and consequences of multimorbidity. Results Multimorbidity was present in 22.8 (95% CI, 21.4 to 24.2) of the study population; it was more common in females, those who are older, single, more educated, and wealthier. We found a similar prevalence of discordant 11.1 (95% CI, 10.1 to 12.2) and concordant multimorbidity 11.7 (95% CI, 10.6 to 12.8). After controlling for age, sex, marital status, education, and wealth, an increasing number of conditions was strongly associated with frailty, disability, low quality of life, and poor physical performance. We found no difference in the association between concordant and discordant multimorbidity and outcomes, however people who were multimorbid with NCDs alone had better outcomes than those with multimorbidity with NCDs and MH disorders or MH multimorbidity alone. Conclusions Multimorbidity is prevalent in this poor, rural population and is associated with markers of decreased physical performance and quality of life. Preventative and management interventions are needed to ensure that health systems can deal with increasing multimorbidity and its downstream consequences.Support for the CRSN Heidelberg Aging Study and for TB was provided by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award to Till Bärnighausen, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. CFP is supported by the ANU Futures Scheme. Professor Witham acknowledges support from the NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre. MJS receives research support from the National Institutes of Health (R01 HL141053 and R01 AG 059504 and P30AI060354). GH is supported by a fellowship copyright. on May 13, 2020 at Australian National University. Protected by http://gh.bmj.com/BMJ Glob Health: first published as 10.1136/bmjgh-2019-002096 on 29 March 2020. Downloaded from Odland ML, et al. BMJ Global Health 2020;5:e002096. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2019-00209613BMJ Global Health from the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society 210479/Z/18/Z. JMG was supported by Grant Number T32 AI007433 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease

Identification of Distinct Heterogenic Subtypes and Molecular Signatures Associated with African Ancestry in Triple Negative Breast Cancer Using Quantified Genetic Ancestry Models in Admixed Race Populations

Triple negative breast cancers (TNBCs) are molecularly heterogeneous, and the link between their aggressiveness with African ancestry is not established. We investigated primary TNBCs for gene expression among self-reported race (SRR) groups of African American (AA, n = 42) and European American (EA, n = 33) women. RNA sequencing data were analyzed to measure changes in genome-wide expression, and we utilized logistic regressions to identify ancestry-associated gene expression signatures. Using SNVs identified from our RNA sequencing data, global ancestry was estimated. We identified 156 African ancestry-associated genes and found that, compared to SRR, quantitative genetic analysis was a more robust method to identify racial/ethnic-specific genes that were differentially expressed. A subset of African ancestry-specific genes that were upregulated in TNBCs of our AA patients were validated in TCGA data. In AA patients, there was a higher incidence of basal-like two tumors and altered TP53, NFB1, and AKT pathways. The distinct distribution of TNBC subtypes and altered oncologic pathways show that the ethnic variations in TNBCs are driven by shared genetic ancestry. Thus, to appreciate the molecular diversity of TNBCs, tumors from patients of various ancestral origins should be evaluated