Measuring Globalization: Better Trade Statistics for Better Policy

Understanding the impacts of globalization requires good data, and national statistical systems were not designed to measure many of the transactions occurring in today’s global economy. The chapters in this volume and its companion volume identify biases and gaps in national statistics, examine the magnitude of the problems they pose, and propose solutions to address significant biases and fill key data gaps.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1250/thumbnail.jp

Offshoring and the State of American Manufacturing

The rapid growth of offshoring has sparked a contentious debate over its impact on the U.S. manufacturing sector, which has recorded steep employment declines yet strong output growth—a fact reconciled by the notable gains in manufacturing productivity. We maintain, however, that the dramatic acceleration of imports from developing countries has imparted a significant bias to the official statistics. In particular, the price declines associated with the shift to low-cost foreign suppliers generally are not captured in input cost and import price indexes. To assess the implications of offshoring bias for manufacturing productivity and value added, we implement the bias correction developed by Diewert and Nakamura (2009) to the input price index in a growth accounting framework, using a variety of assumptions about the magnitude of the discounts from offshoring. We find that from 1997 to 2007 average annual multifactor productivity growth in manufacturing was overstated by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point and real value added growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage point. Furthermore, although the bias from offshoring represents a relatively small share of real value added growth in the computer and electronic products industry, it may have accounted for a fifth to a half of the growth in real value added in the rest of manufacturing

Management of Thyroid Dysfunction during Pregnancy and Postpartum: An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline

Objective: The aim was to update the guidelines for the management of thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy and postpartum published previously in 2007. A summary of changes between the 2007 and 2012 version is identified in the Supplemental Data (published on The Endocrine Society\u27s Journals Online web site at http://jcem.endojournals.org). Evidence: This evidence-based guideline was developed according to the U.S. Preventive Service Task Force, grading items level A, B, C, D, or I, on the basis of the strength of evidence and magnitude of net benefit (benefits minus harms) as well as the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to describe both the strength of recommendations and the quality of evidence. Consensus Process: The guideline was developed through a series of e-mails, conference calls, and one face-to-face meeting. An initial draft was prepared by the Task Force, with the help of a medical writer, and reviewed and commented on by members of The Endocrine Society, Asia and Oceania Thyroid Association, and the Latin American Thyroid Society. A second draft was reviewed and approved by The Endocrine Society Council. At each stage of review, the Task Force received written comments and incorporated substantive changes. Conclusions: Practice guidelines are presented for diagnosis and treatment of patients with thyroid-related medical issues just before and during pregnancy and in the postpartum interval. These include evidence-based approaches to assessing the cause of the condition, treating it, and managing hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism, gestational hyperthyroidism, thyroid autoimmunity, thyroid tumors, iodine nutrition, postpartum thyroiditis, and screening for thyroid disease. Indications and side effects of therapeutic agents used in treatment are also presented

Management Guidelines for Patients with Thyroid Nodules and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: The American Thyroid Association Guidelines Taskforce

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/63263/1/thy.2006.16.109.pd

Indications for thyroid FNA and pre-FNA requirements: A synopsis of the National Cancer Institute Thyroid Fine-Needle Aspiration State of the Science Conference

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) sponsored the NCI Thyroid Fine-Needle Aspiration (FNA) State of the Science Conference on October 22–23, 2007 in Bethesda, MD. The 2-day meeting was accompanied by a permanent informational website and several on-line discussions between May 1 and December 15, 2007 ( http://thyroidfna.cancer.gov ). This document summarizes the indications for performing an FNA of a nodule discovered by physical examination or an imaging study; the indications for using ultrasound versus palpation for guidance when performing a thyroid FNA; the issues surrounding informed consent for thyroid FNA; and the information required on a requisition form that accompanies a thyroid FNA specimen. ( http://thyroidfna.cancer.gov/pages/info/agenda/ ) Diagn. Cytopathol. 2008;36:390–399. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/58658/1/20827_ftp.pd

A combined transmission spectrum of the Earth-sized exoplanets TRAPPIST-1 b and c

Three Earth-sized exoplanets were recently discovered close to the habitable zone of the nearby ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1. The nature of these planets has yet to be determined, since their masses remain unmeasured and no observational constraint is available for the planetary population surrounding ultracool dwarfs, of which the TRAPPIST-1 planets are the first transiting example. Theoretical predictions span the entire atmospheric range from depleted to extended hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Here, we report a space-based measurement of the combined transmission spectrum of the two inner planets made possible by a favorable alignment resulting in their simultaneous transits on 04 May 2016. The lack of features in the combined spectrum rules out cloud-free hydrogen-dominated atmospheres for each planet at 10-$\sigma$ levels; TRAPPIST-1 b and c are hence unlikely to harbor an extended gas envelope as they lie in a region of parameter space where high-altitude cloud/haze formation is not expected to be significant for hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Many denser atmospheres remain consistent with the featureless transmission spectrum---from a cloud-free water vapour atmosphere to a Venus-like atmosphere.Comment: Early release to inform further the upcoming review of HST's Cycle 24 proposal

Five-year trends in epidemiology and prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission, St. Petersburg, Russia: results from perinatal HIV surveillance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Russia has increasingly involved reproductive-aged women, which may increase perinatal HIV transmission.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Standard HIV case-reporting and enhanced perinatal HIV surveillance systems were used for prospective assessment of HIV-infected women giving birth in St. Petersburg, Russia, during 2004-2008. Trends in social, perinatal, and clinical factors influencing mother-to-child HIV transmission stratified by history of injection drug use, and rates of perinatal HIV transmission were assessed using two-sided χ²or Cochran-Armitage tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among HIV-infected women who gave birth, the proportion of women who self-reported ever using injection drugs (IDUs) decreased from 62% in 2004 to 41% in 2008 (<it>P </it>< 0.0001). Programmatic improvements led to increased uptake of the following clinical services from 2004 to 2008 (all <it>P </it>< 0.01): initiation of antiretroviral prophylaxis at ≤28 weeks gestation (IDUs 44%-54%, non-IDUs 45%-72%), monitoring of immunologic (IDUs 48%-64%, non-IDUs 58%-80%) and virologic status (IDUs 8%-58%, non-IDUs 10%-75%), dual/triple antiretroviral prophylaxis (IDUs 9%-44%, non-IDUs 14%-59%). After initial increase from 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.5%-7.8%) in 2004 to 8.5% (CI 6.1%-11.7%) in 2005 (<it>P </it>< 0.05), perinatal HIV transmission decreased to 5.3% (CI 3.4%-8.3%) in 2006, and 3.2% (CI 1.7%-5.8%) in 2007 (<it>P </it>for trend <0.05). However, the proportion of women without prenatal care and without HIV testing before labor and delivery remained unchanged.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Reduced proportion of IDUs and improved clinical services among HIV-infected women giving birth were accompanied by decreased perinatal HIV transmission, which can be further reduced by increasing outreach and HIV testing of women before and during pregnancy.</p

Consensus Statement on the Terminology and Classification of Central Neck Dissection for Thyroid Cancer

Background: The primary goals of this interdisciplinary consensus statement are to review the relevant anatomy of the central neck compartment, to identify the nodal subgroups within the central compartment commonly involved in thyroid cancer, and to define a consistent terminology relevant to the central compartment neck dissection. Summary: The most commonly involved central lymph nodes in thyroid carcinoma are the prelaryngeal (Delphian), pretracheal, and the right and left paratracheal nodal basins. A central neck dissection includes comprehensive, compartment-oriented removal of the prelaryngeal and pretracheal nodes and at least one paratracheal lymph node basin. A designation should be made as to whether a unilateral or bilateral dissection is performed and on which side (left or right) in unilateral cases. Lymph node plucking or berry picking implies removal only of the clinically involved nodes rather than a complete nodal group within the compartment and is not recommended. A therapeutic central compartment neck dissection implies that nodal metastasis is apparent clinically (preoperatively or intraoperatively) or by imaging (clinically N1a). A prophylactic/elective central compartment dissection implies nodal metastasis is not detected clinically or by imaging (clinically N0). Conclusion: Central neck dissection at a minimum should consist of removal of the prelaryngeal, pretracheal, and paratracheal lymph nodes. The description of a central neck dissection should include both the indication (therapeutic vs. prophylactic/elective) and the extent of the dissection (unilateral or bilateral).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78103/1/thy.2009.0159.pd

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: III. Confirmation of 4 Multiple Planet Systems by a Fourier-Domain Study of Anti-correlated Transit Timing Variations

We present a method to confirm the planetary nature of objects in systems with multiple transiting exoplanet candidates. This method involves a Fourier-Domain analysis of the deviations in the transit times from a constant period that result from dynamical interactions within the system. The combination of observed anti-correlations in the transit times and mass constraints from dynamical stability allow us to claim the discovery of four planetary systems Kepler-25, Kepler-26, Kepler-27, and Kepler-28, containing eight planets and one additional planet candidate.Comment: Accepted to MNRA

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler, III: Analysis of the First 16 Months of Data

New transiting planet candidates are identified in sixteen months (May 2009 - September 2010) of data from the Kepler spacecraft. Nearly five thousand periodic transit-like signals are vetted against astrophysical and instrumental false positives yielding 1,091 viable new planet candidates, bringing the total count up to over 2,300. Improved vetting metrics are employed, contributing to higher catalog reliability. Most notable is the noise-weighted robust averaging of multi-quarter photo-center offsets derived from difference image analysis which identifies likely background eclipsing binaries. Twenty-two months of photometry are used for the purpose of characterizing each of the new candidates. Ephemerides (transit epoch, T_0, and orbital period, P) are tabulated as well as the products of light curve modeling: reduced radius (Rp/R*), reduced semi-major axis (d/R*), and impact parameter (b). The largest fractional increases are seen for the smallest planet candidates (197% for candidates smaller than 2Re compared to 52% for candidates larger than 2Re) and those at longer orbital periods (123% for candidates outside of 50-day orbits versus 85% for candidates inside of 50-day orbits). The gains are larger than expected from increasing the observing window from thirteen months (Quarter 1-- Quarter 5) to sixteen months (Quarter 1 -- Quarter 6). This demonstrates the benefit of continued development of pipeline analysis software. The fraction of all host stars with multiple candidates has grown from 17% to 20%, and the paucity of short-period giant planets in multiple systems is still evident. The progression toward smaller planets at longer orbital periods with each new catalog release suggests that Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone are forthcoming if, indeed, such planets are abundant.Comment: Submitted to ApJS. Machine-readable tables are available at http://kepler.nasa.gov, http://archive.stsci.edu/kepler/results.html, and the NASA Exoplanet Archiv