Influenza Prevalence in the US Associated with Climatic Factors, Analyzed at Multiple Spatial and Temporal Scales.

Linkages between influenza prevalence and climate (e.g. precipitation, temperatures, El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO) have been suspected, but definitive evidence remains elusive. This analysis investigated a climatic relationship between influenza mortality (measured by multiple caused pneumonia and influenza deaths) and influenza morbidity (measured by isolates tested for influenza). Influenza-climate linkages were analyzed at multiple spatial scales (e.g. local analysis, and regional analysis) and multiple temporal scales (e.g. annualized mortality counts, and mortality counts based on cumulative percentiles). Influenza mortality and morbidity were found to have significant correlations to seasonal temperatures, precipitation, and ENSO. Influenza-climate associations varied spatially and temporally, and underscore the importance of considering geographic scale in investigative analyses of disease. Evidence for an influenza-climate relationship provides a greater understanding of the enviro-climatic factors that can contribute to an influenza epidemic, and provides an impetus for further studies that incorporate climatic factors in influenza risk modeling

Development of a GIS-based, real-time Internet mapping tool for rabies surveillance

BACKGROUND: Oral rabies vaccination programs have been implemented to control the spread of wildlife rabies in the United States. However, current surveillance systems are inadequate for the efficient management and evaluation of these large scale vaccine baiting programs. With this in mind, a GIS-based rabies surveillance database and Internet mapping application was created. This surveillance system, RabID, provides a new resource for the rapid mapping and dissemination of data on animal rabies cases in relation to unaffected, enzootic, and baited areas where current interventions are underway. RESULTS: RabID is a centralized database for diagnostic and demographic information collected by local, state, and federal agencies involved in rabies surveillance. The geo-referenced database remits data to an Internet-accessible mapping application that displays rabies surveillance data in relation to environmental and geographic features. CONCLUSION: RabID provides a pioneering example of the power of geographically based Internet-accessible, infectious disease surveillance. This surveillance system was developed from existing technology and is readily adaptable to other infectious diseases and may be particularly useful for zoonoses. The development and application of public health informatics technology may enhance the effectiveness of public health interventions and allow better evaluation of public health interventions

Climatic Influences on Cryptococcus gattii Populations, Vancouver Island, Canada, 2002–2004

Vancouver Island, Canada, reports the world’s highest incidence of Cryptococcus gattii infection among humans and animals. To identify key biophysical factors modulating environmental concentrations, we evaluated monthly concentrations of C. gatti in air, soil, and trees over a 3-year period. The 2 study datasets were repeatedly measured plots and newly sampled plots. We used hierarchical generalized linear and mixed effect models to determine associations. Climate systematically influenced C. gattii concentrations in all environmental media tested; in soil and on trees, concentrations decreased when temperatures were warmer. Wind may be a key process that transferred C. gattii from soil into air and onto trees. C. gattii results for tree and air samples were more likely to be positive during periods of higher solar radiation. These results improve the understanding of the places and periods with the greatest C. gattii colonization. Refined risk projections may help susceptible persons avoid activities that disturb the topsoil during relatively cool summer days

Observations from the USA National Phenology Network can be leveraged to model airborne pollen

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) hosts the largest volunteer-contributed collection of plant phenology observations in the USA. The potential contributions of these spatially and temporally explicit observations of flowers and pollen cones to the field of aerobiology remain largely unexplored. Here, we introduce this freely available dataset and demonstrate its prospective applications for modeling airborne pollen in a case study. Specifically, we compare the timing of 4265 observations of flowering for oak (Quercus) trees in the eastern USA to winter–spring temperatures. We then use this relationship to predict the day of peak flowering at 15 pollen monitoring stations in 15 years and compare the predicted day of peak flowering to the peak day of measured pollen (n = 111 station-years). There was a strong association between winter–spring temperature and the presence of open flowers (r2 = 0.66, p < 0.0001) and the predicted peak flowering was strongly correlated with peak airborne pollen concentrations (r2 = 0.81, p < 0.0001). These results demonstrate the potential for the USA-NPN’s phenological observations to underpin source-based models of airborne pollen. We also highlight opportunities for leveraging and enhancing this near real-time dataset for aerobiological applications.National Science Foundation12 month embargo; published: 23 December 2022This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Volunteer-contributed observations of flowering often correlate with airborne pollen concentrations

Characterizing airborne pollen concentrations is crucial for supporting allergy and asthma management; however, pollen monitoring is labor intensive and, in the USA, geographically limited. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) engages thousands of volunteer observers in regularly documenting the developmental and reproductive status of plants. The reports of flower and pollen cone status contributed to the USA-NPN’s platform, Nature’s Notebook, have the potential to help address gaps in pollen monitoring by providing real-time, spatially explicit information from across the country. In this study, we assessed whether observations of flower and pollen cone status contributed to Nature’s Notebook can serve as effective proxies for airborne pollen concentrations. We compared daily pollen concentrations from 36 National Allergy Bureau (NAB) stations in the USA with flowering and pollen cone status observations collected within 200 km of each NAB station in each year, 2009–2021, for 15 common tree taxa using Spearman’s correlations. Of 350 comparisons, 58% of correlations were significant (p < 0.05). Comparisons could be made at the largest numbers of sites for Acer and Quercus. Quercus demonstrated a comparatively high proportion of tests with significant agreement (median ρ = 0.49). Juglans demonstrated the strongest overall coherence between the two datasets (median ρ = 0.79), though comparisons were made at only a small number of sites. For particular taxa, volunteer-contributed flowering status observations demonstrate promise to indicate seasonal patterns in airborne pollen concentrations. The quantity of observations, and therefore, their utility for supporting pollen alerts, could be substantially increased through a formal observation campaign.12 month embargo; first published 17 June 2023This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Pollen and asthma morbidity in Atlanta: A 26-year time-series study

Background: Compared to many environmental risk factors, the relationship between pollen and asthma is understudied, including how associations may differ by pollen type and between subgroups, and how associations may be changing over time. Objectives: We evaluated the association between ambient pollen concentrations and emergency department (ED) visits for asthma and wheeze in Atlanta, Georgia during 1993–2018. We estimated overall associations for 13 individual pollen taxa, as well as associations by decade, race, age (5–17, 18–64, 65+), and insurance status (Medicaid vs non-Medicaid). Methods: Speciated pollen data were acquired from Atlanta Allergy &amp; Asthma, a nationally certified pollen counting station. ED visit data were obtained from individual hospitals and from the Georgia Hospital Association. We performed time-series analyses using quasi-Poisson distributed lag models, with primary analyses assessing 3-day (lag 0–2 days) pollen levels. Models controlled for day of week, holidays, air temperature, month, year, and month-by-year interactions. Results: From 1993 to 2018, there were 686,259 ED visits for asthma and wheeze in the dataset, and the number of ED visits increased over time. We observed positive associations of asthma and wheeze ED visits with nine of the 13 pollen taxa: trees (maple, birch, pine, oak, willow, sycamore, and mulberry), two weeds (nettle and pigweed), and grasses. Rate ratios indicated 1–8% increases in asthma and wheeze ED visits per standard deviation increases in pollen. In general, we observed stronger associations in the earliest period (1993–2000), in younger people, and in Black patients; however, results varied by pollen taxa. Conclusions: Some, but not all, types of pollen are associated with increased ED visits for asthma/wheeze. Associations are generally higher in Black and younger patients and appear to have decreased over time