Exploring the future land use-biodiversity-climate nexus in East Africa: an application of participatory scenario analysis

Climate change and land-use-land-cover change (LULCC) are expected to have major impacts on global biodiversity. In highly diverse tropical moist forests, future biodiversity trajectories will also depend on political and societal will to undertake the changes needed to reduce those impacts. We present a framework to build participatory spatially-explicit scenarios that can be used to analyse the biodiversity-climate-land-change tradeoffs, which we applied at different scales in East Africa. In Tanzania, under the business-as-usual pattern of economic growth, the Eastern Arc Mountains forests and biodiversity will be heavily impacted on, with increasing pressure on protected areas. Increasing variability of rainfall and temperature are likely to impact on where the LULCC are going to be, with the mountains likely to be refuges that are even more important for local communities. That may intensify impacts on biodiversity. In Taita Hills (Kenya) and Jimma Highlands (Ethiopia), stakeholders expected that adaptation interventions to climate change would generally improve biodiversity state. Preliminary data on birds community diversity in Taita Hills showed that though agroforestry system supports higher diversity than natural forest, species richness of rarer forest specialists remained highest within natural forests. Anticipating future conservation and agriculture interaction under climate change may contribute to set spatial priorities for intervention sites. Further investigations are required that could benefit from integrating local stakeholders’ perceptions and visions for the future

From local scenarios to national maps : a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania

Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect top-down global oversight with bottom-up subnational knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially explicit scenarios at national scale that model socioeconomic and environmental dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives and national spatial data. We illustrate results generated by this approach and evaluate its potential to contribute to a greater understanding of the relationship between development pathways and sustainability. Using the lens of land use and land cover changes, and engaging 240 stakeholders representing subnational (seven forest management zones) and the national level, we applied the framework to assess alternative development strategies in the Tanzania mainland to the year 2025, under either a business as usual or a green development scenario. In the business as usual scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated land expands by ~ 2% per year (up to 88,808 km²), with large impacts on woodlands and wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment of natural forest occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads to degradation, i.e., loss of tree cover and biomass, up to 80,426 km² of wooded land. The alternative green economy scenario envisages decreasing degradation and deforestation with increasing productivity (+10%) and implementation of payment for ecosystem service schemes. In this scenario, cropland expands by 44,132 km² and the additional degradation is limited to 35,778 km². This scenario development framework captures perspectives and knowledge across a diverse range of stakeholders and regions. Although further effort is required to extend its applicability, improve users’ equity, and reduce costs the resulting spatial outputs can be used to inform national level planning and policy implementation associated with sustainable development, especially the REDD+ climate mitigation strategy

Scenarios of land use and land cover change and their multiple impacts on natural capital in Tanzania

REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation, and forest degradation, plus the conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks, in developing countries) requires information on land use and land cover changes (LULCC) and carbon emissions trends from the past to the present and into the future. Here we use the results of participatory scenario development in Tanzania, to assess the potential interacting impacts on carbon stock, biodiversity and water yield of alternative scenarios where REDD+ is effectively implemented or not by 2025, the green economy (GE) and the business as usual (BAU) respectively. Under the BAU scenario, land use and land cover changes causes 296 MtC national stock loss by 2025, reduces the extent of suitable habitats for endemic and rare species, mainly in encroached protected mountain forests, and produce changes of water yields. In the GE scenario, national stock loss decreases to 133 MtC. In this scenario, consistent LULCC impacts occur within small forest patches with high carbon density, water catchment capacity and biodiversity richness. Opportunities for maximising carbon emissions reductions nationally are largely related to sustainable woodland management but also contain trade-offs with biodiversity conservation and changes in water availability

A preliminary assessment of protected area management within the WWF ‘Coastal East Africa’ priority place, Eastern Africa

We studied the effectiveness of protected area management within a Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) priority place for conservation investment, located in the coastal areas of Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique. At least 473 sites in this region have completed Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) assessments since 2003, often associated with Global Environment Facility (GEF) funded projects, but also through work funded by other donors and WWF itself. We show that community managed reserves score higher using the METT tool when compared with sites managed by the state forest agencies. We situate this within the context of approaches to reserve management in Tanzania, where state-managed Forest Reserves have received little in terms of funding support and score lowest when compared with all other management types in Tanzania. Further, we show that slightly higher average METT scores for sites where WWF are working across Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, when compared with all other sites, are most pronounced in elements of the METT tool relating to inputs, process and planning, and are not seen in outputs or outcomes. We discuss the utility of the METT tool for organisations like WWF to evaluate their impact in protected area management, including the issue of systematic bias in data recording (WWF facilitation of assessments) and that more time may be required to see the outcomes and impacts from any management improvements that have been achieved

A Preliminary Assessment of Protected Area Management within the WWF ‘Coastal East Africa’ Priority Place, Eastern Africa.

We studied the effectiveness of protected area management within a Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) priority place for conservation investment, located in the coastal areas of Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique. At least 473 sites in this region have completed Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) assessments since 2003, often associated with Global Environment Facility (GEF) funded projects, but also through work funded by other donors and WWF itself. We show that community managed reserves score higher using the METT tool when compared with sites managed by the state forest agencies. We situate this within the context of approaches to reserve management in Tanzania, where state-managed Forest Reserves have received little in terms of funding support and score lowest when compared with all other management types in Tanzania. Further, we show that slightly higher average METT scores for sites where WWF are working across Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, when compared with all other sites, are most pronounced in elements of the METT tool relating to inputs, process and planning, and are not seen in outputs or outcomes. We discuss the utility of the METT tool for organisations like WWF to evaluate their impact in protected area management, including the issue of systematic bias in data recording (WWF facilitation of assessments) and that more time may be required to see the outcomes and impacts from any management improvements that have been achieved