A Tool to Optimize the Initial Distribution of Hydrogen Filling Stations

An important barrier towards the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) running on hydrogen is the lack of widespread refueling infrastructure. The niche of buses for public transport, taxis and deliverers with a local application area might not be large enough to generate the reductions of FCV costs that are necessary for a general technology switch. Thus, fuel availability at trunk roads probably plays a crucial role in generating demand for FCVs also from private consumers. In this paper we assume that consumers are more likely to consider buying a FCV the more frequently they are exposed to hydrogen refueling opportunities on long distant trips. We introduce a tool to test different small scale initial distributions of hydrogen outlets within the German trunk road system for their potential success to generate a large scale adoption of FCVs. The tool makes use of agent based trip modeling and Geographic Information System (GIS) supported spatial modeling. We demonstrate its potentials by testing a ring shaped distribution of hydrogen outlets at highway filling stations. We find that the structure of an optimized initial distribution of filling stations depends on what drivers consider a sufficiently small distance between refueling opportunities.Agent based modeling, Alternative fueled vehicles, Hydrogen, Fuel Cells

Optimal CO2-abatement with socio-economic inertia and induced technological change

The impact of induced technological change (ITC) in energy/climate models on the timing of optimal CO2-abatement depends on whether R&D or learning-by-doing (LBD) is the driving force. Bottom-up energy system models employing LBD suggest strong increases in optimal early abatement. In this paper we extend an existing top-down model supporting this view according to the notion that socio-economic inertia interferes with rapid technological change. We derive analytical results concerning the impact of inertia and ITC on optimal initial abatement and show a wide range of numerical simulations to illustrate magnitudes. Inertia now dominates the timing decision on early abatement, such that LBD might even have a negative effect on early abatement and the impact of R&D is limited. However, ITC still reduces costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2-concentrations considerably.climate policy; technological change; inertia

A complex systems methodology to transition management

There is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology that identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2646 possible future car systems.NK-model, complexity, flexibility, irreversibility, path dependence, transition path, transition management, sustainable development, car technology

Flexible transition strategies towards future well-to-wheel chains: an evolutionary modelling approach

Well to wheel (WTW) analyses mainly focus on alternative road fuel/vehicle systems that are very different from the current crude oil based individual transport system. A large share of WTW chains evaluated require changes in the energy source, new fuel production facilities, different fuel distribution systems and also modifications of the vehicles. An immediate transition to such a new system would be an unprecedented technological discontinuity. Historical examples of successful technological changes are characterized by stepwise transitions of subsystems. In this paper, we present a model that identifies likely sequences of stepwise transitions in analogy to the fitness landscape model in evolutionary biology. Applying this methodology allows for a dynamic interpretation of otherwise static WTW information. We show that sequences of transitions are path dependent, so that current decisions predetermine the future WTW system. We, therefore, argue that flexible initial transition steps that allow for different transition paths later on are favorable. Results suggest that improvements of vehicle technologies are most flexible if decision makers focus on decreasing WTW energy requirements. A full transition to diesel, as a first step, is advisable if WTW greenhouse gases should be reduced.Alternative fuels, Hydrogen, Lock-in, Fitness-landscape

CHIMP: A SIMPLE POPULATION MODEL FOR USE IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

We present the Canberra-Hamburg Integrated Model for Population (CHIMP), a new global population model for long-term projections. Distinguishing features of this model, compared to other model for secular population projections, are that (a) mortality, fertility, and migration are partly driven by per capita income; (b) large parts of the model have been estimated rather than calibrated; and (c) the model is in the public domain. Scenario experiments show similarities but also differences with other models. Similarities include rapid aging of the population and an eventual reversal of global population growth. The main difference is that CHIMP projects substantially higher populations, particularly in Africa, primarily because our data indicate a slower fertility decline than assumed elsewhere. Model runs show a strong interaction between population growth and economic growth, and a weak feedback of climate change on population growth.population model, long term projections, global change, integrated assessment

O conceito de consumidor direto e a jurisprudência do Superior Tribunal de Justiça

- Texto de autoria de Ministra do Superior Tribunal de Justiça.Trata, sob o enfoque jurídico e econômico, o conceito de consumidor direto, contextualizando-o, de um lado, com as duas escolas de pensamento formuladas sobre o tema, e, de outro, com os recentes avanços jurisprudenciais desenvolvidos pelo Superior Tribunal de Justiça (STJ). Comenta que a Escola Subjetiva considera que a aquisição ou uso de bem ou serviço para o exercício de atividade econômica, civil ou empresária (CC/02, art. 966, caput e parágrafo único), descaracteriza requisito essencial à formação da relação de consumo, qual seja, ser o consumidor o destinatário final da fruição do bem. Informa que a linha de precedentes adotada pela Quarta e Sexta Turmas deste STJ coaduna-se com os pressupostos da teoria subjetiva ou finalista, restringindo a exegese do art. 2º do CDC ao destinatário final fático e também econômico do bem ou serviço. Apresenta ainda a teoria da Escola Objetiva que considera que a aquisição ou uso de bem ou serviço na condição de destinatário final fático caracteriza a relação de consumo, por força do elemento objetivo, qual seja, o ato de consumo. Informa também que a linha de precedentes adotada pela Primeira e Terceira Turmas deste STJ coaduna-se com os pressupostos da teoria objetiva (ou maximalista), considerando-se consumidor o destinatário final fático do bem ou serviço, ainda que venha a utilizá-lo no exercício de profissão ou de empresa. Indica a tendência jurisprudencial do STJ de prevalência da Escola Objetiva. Apresenta precedente recente (Conflito de Competência nº. 41056/SP, julgado em 23/06/2004), em que a Segunda Seção do STJ acolheu, por maioria, o conceito de consumidor direto eleito pela escola objetiva

A Tool to Optimize the Initial Distribution of Hydrogen Filling Stations

An important barrier towards the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) running on hydrogen is the lack of widespread refueling infrastructure. The niche of buses for public transport, taxis and deliverers with a local application area might not be large enough to generate the reductions of FCV costs that are necessary for a general technology switch. Thus, fuel availability at trunk roads probably plays a crucial role in generating demand for FCVs also from private consumers. In this paper we assume that consumers are more likely to consider buying a FCV the more frequently they are exposed to hydrogen refueling opportunities on long distant trips. We introduce a tool to test different small scale initial distributions of hydrogen outlets within the German trunk road system for their potential success to generate a large scale adoption of FCVs. The tool makes use of agent based trip modeling and Geographic Information System (GIS) supported spatial modeling. We demonstrate its potentials by testing a ring shaped distribution of hydrogen outlets at highway filling stations. We find that the structure of an optimized initial distribution of filling stations depends on what drivers consider a sufficiently small distance between refueling opportunities