The anticipation of events in time

Humans anticipate events signaled by sensory cues. It is commonly assumed that two uncertainty parameters modulate the brain's capacity to predict: the hazard rate (HR) of event probability and the uncertainty in time estimation which increases with elapsed time. We investigate both assumptions by presenting event probability density functions (PDFs) in each of three sensory modalities. We show that perceptual systems use the reciprocal PDF and not the HR to model event probability density. We also demonstrate that temporal uncertainty does not necessarily grow with elapsed time but can also diminish, depending on the event PDF. Previous research identified neuronal activity related to event probability in multiple levels of the cortical hierarchy (sensory (V4), association (LIP), motor and other areas) proposing the HR as an elementary neuronal computation. Our results—consistent across vision, audition, and somatosensation—suggest that the neurobiological implementation of event anticipation is based on a different, simpler and more stable computation than HR: the reciprocal PDF of events in time

Topologically Massive Gravity and Ricci-Cotton Flow

We consider Topologically Massive Gravity (TMG), which is three dimensional general relativity with a cosmological constant and a gravitational Chern-Simons term. When the cosmological constant is negative the theory has two potential vacuum solutions: Anti-de Sitter space and Warped Anti-de Sitter space. The theory also contains a massive graviton state which renders these solutions unstable for certain values of the parameters and boundary conditions. We study the decay of these solutions due to the condensation of the massive graviton mode using Ricci-Cotton flow, which is the appropriate generalization of Ricci flow to TMG. When the Chern-Simons coupling is small the AdS solution flows to warped AdS by the condensation of the massive graviton mode. When the coupling is large the situation is reversed, and warped AdS flows to AdS. Minisuperspace models are constructed where these flows are studied explicitly

Non-Einstein geometries in Chiral Gravity

We analyze the asymptotic solutions of Chiral Gravity (Topologically Massive Gravity at \mu l = 1 with Brown-Henneaux boundary conditions) focusing on non-Einstein metrics. A class of such solutions admits curvature singularities in the interior which are reflected as singularities or infinite bulk energy of the corresponding linear solutions. A non-linear solution is found exactly. The back-reaction induces a repulsion of geodesics and a shielding of the singularity by an event horizon but also introduces closed timelike curves.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures. v2: references and comments on linear stability (Sect.2) adde

The Bolocam 1.1 mm Lockman Hole Galaxy Survey: SHARC II 350 micron Photometry and Implications for Spectral Models, Dust Temperatures, and Redshift Estimation

We present 350 micron photometry of all 17 galaxy candidates in the Lockman Hole detected in a 1.1 mm Bolocam survey. Several of the galaxies were previously detected at 850 microns, at 1.2 mm, in the infrared by Spitzer, and in the radio. Nine of the Bolocam galaxy candidates were detected at 350 microns and two new candidates were serendipitously detected at 350 microns (bringing the total in the literature detected in this way to three). Five of the galaxies have published spectroscopic redshifts, enabling investigation of the implied temperature ranges and a comparison of photometric redshift techniques. Lambda = 350 microns lies near the spectral energy distribution peak for z = 2.5 thermally emitting galaxies. Thus, luminosities can be measured without extrapolating to the peak from detection wavelengths of lambda > 850 microns. Characteristically, the galaxy luminosities lie in the range 1.0 - 1.2 x 10^13 L_solar, with dust temperatures in the range of 40 K to 70 K, depending on the choice of spectral index and wavelength of unit optical depth. The implied dust masses are 3 - 5 x 10^8 M_solar. We find that the far-infrared to radio relation for star-forming ULIRGs systematically overpredicts the radio luminosities and overestimates redshifts on the order of Delta z ~ 1, whereas redshifts based on either on submillimeter data alone or the 1.6 micron stellar bump and PAH features are more accurate.Comment: In Press (to appear in Astrophysical Journal, ApJ 20 May 2006 v643 1) 47 pages, 10 figures, 4 table

Design and Management of Saltbush-Based Forage Systems to Improve Productivity and Reproductive Performance of Sheep

There is evidence that effective shelter can significantly improve lamb survival, but the majority of Australian studies have occurred in small paddocks where the ewes had no choice but to use shelter. In mixed farming systems with large open paddocks, it is unclear if ewes will choose to use shelter for lambing. Our multidisciplinary collaboration examines the use of woody shrubs as an opportunity to improve the survival of twin lambs. In a series of large experiments on commercial farms, we will evaluate the impact of different shrub planting configurations, orientations, and densities on microclimates at the sub-paddock scale. Twin-bearing ewes with GPS trackers will graze a mosaic of shelter options to identify lambing sites relative to climatic conditions at the time of lambing. Relatively palatable and unpalatable shrubs have been planted to explore trade-offs between the attraction of ewes to shelter against declining shelter value, because palatable shrubs are defoliated faster than relatively unpalatable options. A linked project is investigating the use of the same shrub systems to provide shade and antioxidants during joining when temperatures exceed the sheep thermal comfort zone for extended periods in summer. Hardy perennial shrubs such as saltbush offer an opportunity to improve profitability and climate resilience of farming systems, while improving landscape health. Multidisciplinary research is required to understand the benefits and limitations of these systems

Safety of overlapping inpatient orthopaedic surgery: A multicenter study

BackgroundAlthough overlapping surgery is used to maximize efficiency, more empirical data are needed to guide patient safety. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the safety of overlapping inpatient orthopaedic surgery, as judged by the occurrence of perioperative complications.MethodsAll inpatient orthopaedic surgical procedures performed at 5 academic institutions from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, were included. Overlapping surgery was defined as 2 skin incisions open simultaneously for 1 surgeon. In comparing patients who underwent overlapping surgery with those who underwent non-overlapping surgery, the primary outcome was the occurrence of a perioperative complication within 30 days of the surgical procedure, and secondary outcomes included all-cause 30-day readmission, length of stay, and mortality. To determine if there was an association between overlapping surgery and a perioperative complication, we tested for non-inferiority of overlapping surgery, assuming a null hypothesis of an increased risk of 50%. We used an inverse probability of treatment weighted regression model adjusted for institution, procedure type, demographic characteristics (age, sex, race, comorbidities), admission type, admission severity of illness, and clustering by surgeon.ResultsAmong 14,135 cases, the frequency of overlapping surgery was 40%. The frequencies of perioperative complications were 1% in the overlapping surgery group and 2% in the non-overlapping surgery group. The overlapping surgery group was non-inferior to the non-overlapping surgery group (odds ratio [OR], 0.61 [90% confidence interval (CI), 0.45 to 0.83]; p < 0.001), with reduced odds of perioperative complications (OR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.43 to 0.88]; p = 0.009). For secondary outcomes, there was a significantly lower chance of all-cause 30-day readmission in the overlapping surgery group (OR, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.52 to 0.87]; p = 0.003) and shorter length of stay (e, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]; p = 0.012). There was no difference in mortality.ConclusionsOur results suggest that overlapping inpatient orthopaedic surgery does not introduce additional perioperative risk for the complications that we evaluated. The suitability of this practice should be determined by individual surgeons on a case-by-case basis with appropriate informed consent.Level of evidenceTherapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence

Chiral Supergravity

We study the linearized approximation of N=1 topologically massive supergravity around AdS3. Linearized gravitino fields are explicitly constructed. For appropriate boundary conditions, the conserved charges demonstrate chiral behavior, so that chiral gravity can be consistently extended to chiral supergravity.Comment: 30 page

ASCA Observation of an X-Ray-Luminous Active Nucleus in Markarian 231

We have obtained a moderately long (100 kilosecond) ASCA observation of the Seyfert 1 galaxy Markarian 231, the most luminous of the local ultraluminous infrared galaxy (ULIRG) population. In the best-fitting model we do not see the X-ray source directly; the spectrum consists of a scattered power-law component and a reflection component, both of which have been absorbed by a column N_H \approx 3 X 10^(22)/cm^2. About 3/4 of the observed hard X-rays arise from the scattered component, reducing the equivalent width of the iron K alpha line. The implied ratio of 1-10 keV X-ray luminosity to bolometric luminosity, L_x/L_bol \sim 2%, is typical of Sy 1 galaxies and radio-quiet QSOs of comparable bolometric luminosities, and indicates that the bolometric luminosity is dominated by the AGN. Our estimate of the X-ray luminosity also moves Mrk 231 in line with the correlations found for AGN with extremely strong Fe II emission. A second source separated by about 2 arcminutes is also clearly detected, and contributes about 25% of the total flux.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures; to appear in ApJ Letter

A detailed study of the diastereoselective catalytic hydrogenation of 6-hydroxytetrahydroisoquinoline-(3R)-carboxylic ester intermediates

A key step towards a highly-selective antagonist of ionotropic glutamate receptors entails the diastereoselective arene hydrogenation of an enantiopure tetrahydroisoquinoline. An extensive screen using parallel reactors was conducted and led to the discovery of several Pd/C catalysts giving high yield and improved diastereoselectivity from 75 : 25 to 95 : 5. A detailed kinetic study of the best system was performed and supports the reduction occuring in two-steps.