Demographic issues in strategic policy documents of the Republic of Croatia

Prema relevantnim istraživanjima, stanovništvo Republike Hrvatske već desetljećima obilježavaju izrazito nepovoljni demografski procesi, prirodna i ukupna depopulacija, smanjeni fertilitet, starenje stanovništva i emigracija, što utječe na široki spektar društvenih, ekonomskih, političkih, socijalnih i sigurnosnih problema. Ova analiza provodi se temeljem hipoteze kako odgovor na takve procese i promjene negativnih demografskih trendova zahtijevaju dugoročne i koherentne multiresorske politike u definiciji i provedbi. Slijedom toga definirano je istraživačko pitanje o koherentnosti strateškog političkog pristupa demografskoj problematici Republike Hrvatske od stjecanja neovisnosti 1991. godine. Provedena analiza strateških dokumenata, inauguralnih izjava predsjednika Republike Hrvatske, programa vlada Republike Hrvatske te strategija nacionalne sigurnosti ukazuje na nepovoljniju demografsku situaciju nego prije četvrt stoljeća, pri čemu su politički procesi koji trebaju osigurati odgovor na negativna kretanja i dalje u začecima. Pozitivan aspekt uočava se kroz rastući politički i sigurnosni fokus recentnih ključnih političkih aktera na demografska pitanja u odnosu na prethodna razdoblja, što je i pretpostavka osiguravanja dugoročnosti i koherentnosti u definiranju, usklađivanju i primjeni mjera usmjerenih na promjenu demografskih trendova.According to relevant research, for decades the population of the Republic of Croatia has been characterized by extremely unfavourable demographic processes, natural depopulation, reduced fertility, population aging and emigration, which affect a wide range of social, economic, political, social and security problems. This analysis is based on the hypothesis that response to such processes and changes in negative demographic trends require long-term and coherent multisectoral policies in definition and implementation. Consequently, a research question examines the coherence of the strategic political approach to the demographic problem of the Republic of Croatia since independence in 1991. The analysis of strategic documents, inaugural statements of the Croatian presidents, the government programs and the national security strategies indicates a more unfavourable demographic situation than a quarter of a century ago, whereby the political processes that need to ensure the response to negative developments are still in an early stage. A positive aspect can be seen through the growing political and security focus of recent key political actors on demographic issues, which is also a prerequisite for ensuring durable and coherence in defining, harmonizing and implementing measures aimed at changing demographic trends

The Security Challenge of Disruptive Technologies

Dynamic changes that characterize the modern security environment have been significantly driven and shaped by the rapid pace of technological development. Of particular importance is the emergence and development of technologies that revolutionary change the character of the security environment - disruptive technologies. The paper analyzes disruptive technologies aimed at the automation, acceleration and autonomy of the data processing process, decision-making abilities, and actions independent of human factor. These technologies affect all spheres of social life and subsequently security. Unlike previous disruptive technologies that influence security driven by the states and their defense sectors, the recent technologies are predominantly developing in private sector. This fact leads the countries to dependency on the private sector, and face them with significant challenges in identifying threats, its content and possible responses. Technologically less developed countries are particularly vulnerable. Based on the hypothesis of how disruptive technologies influence the design of security environments, an analysis of strategic security documents of Croatia, the USA, Russia, China, NATO, EU, and the states from the Croatian neighborhood has been conducted to determine if these countries recognize disruptive technologies as a security threat and how they approach them. The research has shown that Croatia does not recognize disruptive technologies as a specific threat. The analysis also indicates that, in the case of technologically less developed countries, such as the case of Croatia, security communities such as the EU or NATO provide a platform for responding to those threats.</p

Conceptualization of Information Operations in Modelling the Understanding of a Security Environment

Defining the security environment, which is a prerequisite for the process of defining security policies, is based on gathering and evaluating information on the political, economic, military, security, social and other characteristics of a given environment. The process of gathering and evaluating information is increasingly susceptible to external influences and manipulations via information operations of state and non-state actors, particularly with the development of information technologies. The hypothesis of this paper is that information operations influence the understanding of a security environment and as a consequence, the process of defining security policies. Based on the described hypothesis, the paper conceptualizes information operations in the modelling of the understanding of a security environment and consequently the determination of security policies, using an analysis of certain aspects of information operations and their influence on the information and information systems of the adversary.</p

The Security Challenge of Disruptive Technologies

Dynamic changes that characterize the modern security environment have been significantly driven and shaped by the rapid pace of technological development. Of particular importance is the emergence and development of technologies that revolutionary change the character of the security environment - disruptive technologies. The paper analyzes disruptive technologies aimed at the automation, acceleration and autonomy of the data processing process, decision-making abilities, and actions independent of human factor. These technologies affect all spheres of social life and subsequently security. Unlike previous disruptive technologies that influence security driven by the states and their defense sectors, the recent technologies are predominantly developing in private sector. This fact leads the countries to dependency on the private sector, and face them with significant challenges in identifying threats, its content and possible responses. Technologically less developed countries are particularly vulnerable. Based on the hypothesis of how disruptive technologies influence the design of security environments, an analysis of strategic security documents of Croatia, the USA, Russia, China, NATO, EU, and the states from the Croatian neighborhood has been conducted to determine if these countries recognize disruptive technologies as a security threat and how they approach them. The research has shown that Croatia does not recognize disruptive technologies as a specific threat. The analysis also indicates that, in the case of technologically less developed countries, such as the case of Croatia, security communities such as the EU or NATO provide a platform for responding to those threats.</p

Demographic issues in strategic policy documents of the Republic of Croatia

Prema relevantnim istraživanjima, stanovništvo Republike Hrvatske već desetljećima obilježavaju izrazito nepovoljni demografski procesi, prirodna i ukupna depopulacija, smanjeni fertilitet, starenje stanovništva i emigracija, što utječe na široki spektar društvenih, ekonomskih, političkih, socijalnih i sigurnosnih problema. Ova analiza provodi se temeljem hipoteze kako odgovor na takve procese i promjene negativnih demografskih trendova zahtijevaju dugoročne i koherentne multiresorske politike u definiciji i provedbi. Slijedom toga definirano je istraživačko pitanje o koherentnosti strateškog političkog pristupa demografskoj problematici Republike Hrvatske od stjecanja neovisnosti 1991. godine. Provedena analiza strateških dokumenata, inauguralnih izjava predsjednika Republike Hrvatske, programa vlada Republike Hrvatske te strategija nacionalne sigurnosti ukazuje na nepovoljniju demografsku situaciju nego prije četvrt stoljeća, pri čemu su politički procesi koji trebaju osigurati odgovor na negativna kretanja i dalje u začecima. Pozitivan aspekt uočava se kroz rastući politički i sigurnosni fokus recentnih ključnih političkih aktera na demografska pitanja u odnosu na prethodna razdoblja, što je i pretpostavka osiguravanja dugoročnosti i koherentnosti u definiranju, usklađivanju i primjeni mjera usmjerenih na promjenu demografskih trendova.According to relevant research, for decades the population of the Republic of Croatia has been characterized by extremely unfavourable demographic processes, natural depopulation, reduced fertility, population aging and emigration, which affect a wide range of social, economic, political, social and security problems. This analysis is based on the hypothesis that response to such processes and changes in negative demographic trends require long-term and coherent multisectoral policies in definition and implementation. Consequently, a research question examines the coherence of the strategic political approach to the demographic problem of the Republic of Croatia since independence in 1991. The analysis of strategic documents, inaugural statements of the Croatian presidents, the government programs and the national security strategies indicates a more unfavourable demographic situation than a quarter of a century ago, whereby the political processes that need to ensure the response to negative developments are still in an early stage. A positive aspect can be seen through the growing political and security focus of recent key political actors on demographic issues, which is also a prerequisite for ensuring durable and coherence in defining, harmonizing and implementing measures aimed at changing demographic trends

Demographic Security Trends in Southeastern Europe

Over the past three decades we have witnessed an evolution of the concept of security in general and of demographic security as a specific field of security studies. The approach to security has been changing both in regards to a widening of subjects and referent objects of security, and a widening of the security domain. Consideration of the demographic component in the security sphere has evolved in accordance with this development; the scope of perspectives through which demographic security is viewed and defined has expanded – the population composition, population dynamics and human capital paradigm. Aspects of demographics and security are in continuous interaction and interdependence which significantly determines demographic security and national security. The aim of this paper is to establish a specific link between demographic security and security in ten post-socialist countries of South Eastern Europe (SEE). In accordance with this aim, an analysis has been made of the compositional elements and population dynamics in order to determine demographic security of the observed states. The analysis indicates unfavourable demographic security, and negative demographic composition and dynamics in most of observed states, which suggests that demographic security will have a continuing negative impact on the security of the countries analysed and the region as a whole

Analizat krahasuese të strategjive për komunikim për hyrje në Bashkimin Evropian – Mësimet për Kosovën

Në bazë të aplikacionit për anëtarësim në Bashkimin Evropian, Qeveria e Kroacisë në dy seancat e saj, adoptoi strategjinë për komunikim për të informuar publikun kroat rreth BE-së dhe përgatitjeve për anëtarësim. Implementimi i këtyre strategjive mbetet ndër prioritetet kryesore të koalicionit qeverisës që u formua pas zgjedhjeve të mbajtura më datën 25 nëntor 2007. Duke pasur parasysh pritjet e mëdha të qeverisë dhe të publikut, autorët analizojnë strategjinë në tërësi dhe në detaje të Qeverisë së Republikës së Kroacisë, dhe bëjnë krahasimin e saj me strategjitë e shteteve si Sllovenia, Bullgaria, Sllovakia, Latvia dhe vendet e tjera. Duke bërë krahasimin e detajeve të strategjive përmes objektivave, publikut relevant, teknikave dhe kanaleve të komunikimit, autorët identifikojnë mungesat specifike dhe rekomandojnë hapa të mundshëm për ta bërë strategjinë më aplikative dhe efiçiente për arritjen e objektivave. Observimet teorike janë të mbështetura si model empirik për ta definuar Strategjinë e Komunikimit për Kosovë

Kosovo - from the International Forces Deployment to the Appointment of the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Status Negotiation

Kosovo i problem definiranja statusa Kosova i nadalje su opterećeni suprotstavljenim zahtjevima, interesima i pristupima uključenih strana - kosovski Albanci, Srbi, međunarodna zajednica; o smjeru, sadržaju i dinamici rješavanja otvorenih pitanja i u konačnici, definiranja statusa Kosova. U takvoj situaciji Kosovo je i dalje središnja točka koja ugrožava regionalnu sigurnost. Kosovski Albanci inzistiraju na nezavisnosti Kosova i ubrzavanju procesa u tom smjeru. Srbi i Srbija, bez potrebnog političkog jedinstva, inzistiraju na Kosovu kao neotuđivom dijelu Srbije i državne zajednice SCG. Međunarodna zajednica, suočena s kontinuiranom tinjajućom krizom, jača demokratske procese i ubrzava proces definiranja statusa. Kako odluka o konačnom statusu Kosova i njena implementacija ne bi ugrozili postojeću regionalnu stabilnost mora se potaknuti paralelan proces širenja osnove zajedničkih regionalnih interesa i afirmacije politike kooperacije kao pretpostavke za očuvanje i unapređivanje regionalne sigurnosti.Kosovo and the problem of how to determine Kosovo\u27s future status are factors further burdened by confronted requirements, interests and approaches of all the actors involved (Kosovo Albanians, Serbs and international community) regarding the direction, substance and dynamics in the settlement of open issues as well as the determining of the status of Kosovo in the end. In such a situation Kosovo is still the focal point and poses a threat to regional security. Kosovo Albanians insist on Kosovo\u27s independence and urge that a process is facilitated in that direction. Serbs and Serbia, with a lack of common political unity, insist on Kosovo being an integral part of Serbia and the State Uni on of Serbia and Montenegro. The international community, facing a continuous latent crisis, altered towards building up the democratic processes in Kosovo and facilitating a process of status determination. In order to reach a decision on Kosovo\u27s final status and its implementation that does not pose a threat to existing regional stability, a parallel process of strengthening the basis of common regional interests and the affirmation of a policy of cooperation should be promoted as the hypothesis to maintain and strengthen regional security

Comparative Analysis of Communication Strategies for Accession to the EU – Lessons for Kosovo

On the grounds of the application for European Union membership, in its two sessions, the government of the Republic of Croatia adopted Communication Strategies for informing the Croatian public about the EU and preparations for membership. The implementation of the strategy remains among the priorities of the coalition government which was formed after the elections held on 25 November 2007. Taking into consideration great expectations of the Government and the public, the authors analyze the strategy of the Government of the Republic of Croatia, and its specific entirety and compare it with the strategies of Slovenia, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Latvia. By comparing specified strategies through objectives, target public, techniques and channels of communication, the authors indicate specific shortcomings and recommend possible steps to make the Strategy more applicable and more efficient, and thus accomplish the proclaimed objectives. Theoretical observations defined in that way are given as an empirical model for defining of the communication strategy for Kosovo