On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity

Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability, written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity. One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16 writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Weblog patterns and human dynamics with decreasing interest

Weblog is the fourth way of network exchange after Email, BBS and MSN. Most bloggers begin to write blogs with great interest, and then their interests gradually achieve a balance with the passage of time. In order to describe the phenomenon that people's interest in something gradually decreases until it reaches a balance, we first propose the model that describes the attenuation of interest and reflects the fact that people's interest becomes more stable after a long time. We give a rigorous analysis on this model by non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Our analysis indicates that the interval distribution of arrival-time is a mixed distribution with exponential and power-law feature, that is, it is a power law with an exponential cutoff. Second, we collect blogs in ScienceNet.cn and carry on empirical studies on the interarrival time distribution. The empirical results agree well with the analytical result, obeying a special power law with the exponential cutoff, that is, a special kind of Gamma distribution. These empirical results verify the model, providing an evidence for a new class of phenomena in human dynamics. In human dynamics there are other distributions, besides power-law distributions. These findings demonstrate the variety of human behavior dynamics.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure

Timing interactions in social simulations: The voter model

The recent availability of huge high resolution datasets on human activities has revealed the heavy-tailed nature of the interevent time distributions. In social simulations of interacting agents the standard approach has been to use Poisson processes to update the state of the agents, which gives rise to very homogeneous activity patterns with a well defined characteristic interevent time. As a paradigmatic opinion model we investigate the voter model and review the standard update rules and propose two new update rules which are able to account for heterogeneous activity patterns. For the new update rules each node gets updated with a probability that depends on the time since the last event of the node, where an event can be an update attempt (exogenous update) or a change of state (endogenous update). We find that both update rules can give rise to power law interevent time distributions, although the endogenous one more robustly. Apart from that for the exogenous update rule and the standard update rules the voter model does not reach consensus in the infinite size limit, while for the endogenous update there exist a coarsening process that drives the system toward consensus configurations.Comment: Book Chapter, 23 pages, 9 figures, 5 table

Statistical mixing and aggregation in Feller diffusion

We consider Feller mean-reverting square-root diffusion, which has been applied to model a wide variety of processes with linearly state-dependent diffusion, such as stochastic volatility and interest rates in finance, and neuronal and populations dynamics in natural sciences. We focus on the statistical mixing (or superstatistical) process in which the parameter related to the mean value can fluctuate - a plausible mechanism for the emergence of heavy-tailed distributions. We obtain analytical results for the associated probability density function (both stationary and time dependent), its correlation structure and aggregation properties. Our results are applied to explain the statistics of stock traded volume at different aggregation scales.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures. To be published in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experimen

A Poissonian explanation for heavy-tails in e-mail communication

Patterns of deliberate human activity and behavior are of utmost importance in areas as diverse as disease spread, resource allocation, and emergency response. Because of its widespread availability and use, e-mail correspondence provides an attractive proxy for studying human activity. Recently, it was reported that the probability density for the inter-event time $\tau$ between consecutively sent e-mails decays asymptotically as $\tau^{-\alpha}$, with $\alpha \approx 1$. The slower than exponential decay of the inter-event time distribution suggests that deliberate human activity is inherently non-Poissonian. Here, we demonstrate that the approximate power-law scaling of the inter-event time distribution is a consequence of circadian and weekly cycles of human activity. We propose a cascading non-homogeneous Poisson process which explicitly integrates these periodic patterns in activity with an individual's tendency to continue participating in an activity. Using standard statistical techniques, we show that our model is consistent with the empirical data. Our findings may also provide insight into the origins of heavy-tailed distributions in other complex systems.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

The aggregation of cytochrome C may be linked to its flexibility during refolding

Large-scale expression of biopharmaceutical proteins in cellular hosts results in production of large insoluble mass aggregates. In order to generate functional product, these aggregates require further processing through refolding with denaturant, a process in itself that can result in aggregation. Using a model folding protein, cytochrome C, we show how an increase in final denaturant concentration decreases the propensity of the protein to aggregate during refolding. Using polarised fluorescence anisotropy, we show how reduced levels of aggregation can be achieved by increasing the period of time the protein remains flexible during refolding, mediated through dilution ratios. This highlights the relationship between the flexibility of a protein and its propensity to aggregate. We attribute this behaviour to the preferential urea-residue interaction, over self-association between molecules

Early risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour: an Australian longitudinal study

Objective: This investigation utilizes data from an Australian longitudinal study to identify early risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour. Method: Analyses are based on data from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy, an on-going longitudinal investigation of women’s and children’s health and development involving over 8000 participants. Five types of risk factors (child characteristics, perinatal factors, maternal/familial characteristics, maternal pre- and post-natal substance use and parenting practices) were included in analyses and were based on maternal reports, child assessments and medical records. Adolescent antisocial behaviour was measured when children were 14 years old, using the delinquency subscale of the Child Behaviour Checklist. Results: Based on a series of logistic regression models, significant risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour included children’s prior problem behaviour (i.e. aggression and attention/restlessness problems at age 5 years) and marital instability, which doubled or tripled the odds of antisocial behaviour. Perinatal factors, maternal substance use, and parenting practices were relatively poor predictors of antisocial behaviour. Conclusions: Few studies have assessed early predictors of antisocial behaviour in Australia and the current results can be used to inform prevention programs that target risk factors likely to lead to problem outcomes for Australian youth

Emotional persistence in online chatting communities

How do users behave in online chatrooms, where they instantaneously read and write posts? We analyzed about 2.5 million posts covering various topics in Internet relay channels, and found that user activity patterns follow known power-law and stretched exponential distributions, indicating that online chat activity is not different from other forms of communication. Analysing the emotional expressions (positive, negative, neutral) of users, we revealed a remarkable persistence both for individual users and channels. I.e. despite their anonymity, users tend to follow social norms in repeated interactions in online chats, which results in a specific emotional "tone" of the channels. We provide an agent-based model of emotional interaction, which recovers qualitatively both the activity patterns in chatrooms and the emotional persistence of users and channels. While our assumptions about agent's emotional expressions are rooted in psychology, the model allows to test different hypothesis regarding their emotional impact in online communication.Comment: 34 pages, 4 main and 12 supplementary figure

Who is the best player ever? A complex network analysis of the history of professional tennis

We consider all matches played by professional tennis players between 1968 and 2010, and, on the basis of this data set, construct a directed and weighted network of contacts. The resulting graph shows complex features, typical of many real networked systems studied in literature. We develop a diffusion algorithm and apply it to the tennis contact network in order to rank professional players. Jimmy Connors is identified as the best player of the history of tennis according to our ranking procedure. We perform a complete analysis by determining the best players on specific playing surfaces as well as the best ones in each of the years covered by the data set. The results of our technique are compared to those of two other well established methods. In general, we observe that our ranking method performs better: it has a higher predictive power and does not require the arbitrary introduction of external criteria for the correct assessment of the quality of players. The present work provides a novel evidence of the utility of tools and methods of network theory in real applications.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 4 table