Special Features of the World System Long-Term Economic Dynamics: Analysis of the Statistical Data

On the basis of available data analysis of the world economy development in the industrial era is carried out. The countries are grouped according to their economic dynamics. A model describing countries co-evolutional eco-nomic development processes in the framework of the world system is proposed. A conclusion is made about inevitabil-ity of «phase transition» in the world economic dynamicsMacroeconomic dynamics; mathematical simulation; nonlinear regression; co-evolution; hyperbolic growth

Studies on liquid penetration into softwood chips : experiments, models and applications

Latest developments in chemical pulping have been mainly driven by advances in pulping chemistry, disregarding the phenomena that take place at the front-end of cooking. In spite of the existence of several concepts and theories, some aspects still remain unclear and more research is needed to achieve a complete understanding of the process of liquid penetration into wood chips. The objectives of the present thesis were to provide more knowledge on the process of liquid penetration into softwood chips and the factors affecting it, to develop a model of penetration process and to evaluate the efficiency of chip presteaming. It was found that the nature of the liquid and its properties play an important role in determining the efficiency of penetration. By optimizing the process conditions and applying certain "penetration aid" techniques, such as presteaming, it is possible to significantly improve the efficiency of penetration and to achieve a higher final penetration degree. Based on experimental data, a mathematical model was developed for the process of water penetration into softwood chips under isothermal conditions. The model was found to predict accurately the course and final level of penetration of water and fresh cooking liquor (white liquor) into the chips under defined conditions. However, the suggested model cannot be used as a general model for predicting the penetration of spent cooking liquor (black liquor). Chip presteaming was examined from the viewpoint of the chip heating and air escape processes. A three-dimensional model was proposed to estimate the efficiency of heating the single chip by saturated steam. It was shown that the time required to heat the single chip with steam was very short, only a few minutes. However, the process of air removal proceeds considerable slower than chip heating process. Achieving a high degree of air removal may require quite long steaming times, up to an hour, especially with heartwood chips. Complete removal of air, however, may be difficult to achieve, even by applying optimal steaming conditions and long steaming times. The knowledge acquired about the efficiency of penetration and presteaming processes was applied to examine contemporary cooking technology. Presteaming of the chips and application of a higher-pressure profile at the front-end of kraft displacement batch cooking resulted in reductions in the amount of rejects and the kappa number of the bulk pulp as well as improved uniformity of delignification.reviewe

Verification of Photometric Parallaxes with Gaia DR2 Data

Results of comparison of Gaia DR2 parallaxes with data derived from a combined analysis of 2MASS (Two Micron All-Sky Survey), SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey), GALEX (Galaxy Evolution Explorer), and UKIDSS (UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey) surveys in four selected high-latitude $|b|>48^{\circ}$ sky areas are presented. It is shown that multicolor photometric data from large modern surveys can be used for parameterization of stars closer than 4400 pc and brighter than $g_{SDSS} = 19.^m6$, including estimation of parallax and interstellar extinction value. However, the stellar luminosity class should be properly determined.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Mathematical model for analyzing the interrelation between monetary circulation and economic growth in developing countries

Objective to develop a basic mathematical model to assess the impact of foreign trade on the national economy and the impact of the national currency on economic growth in relation to developing countries. Methods methods of mathematical dynamic modeling are used in the development of the model. Results one of the most acute and unresolved problems for the Russian economy is the development of such currencymonetary policy that would provide opportunities for economic growth. One of the reasons for the ongoing disputes is the lack of a qualitative mathematical model that allows assessing its impact on economic processes. Mathematical models proposed by representatives of different economic scientifc schools and describing the impact of monetization on the economy are considered. It is determined that the previously developed models are not applicable to the economies of developing countries. The characteristic is given of the dynamic mathematical model earlier developed by the authors describing cash flows in the Russian economy. The importance of models for developing economies is analyzed in terms of growth of the money supply and changes in the exchange rate of the national currency. As a result it is determined that the constructed model which is an aggregate version of the model of switching reproduction takes into account the openness of the national economy and inflation processes. The model is tested on the example of currencymonetary policy of the USA and Russia. Scientific novelty the model differs from analogues in that it is based on the modeling of cash flows in accordance with the methodology of modeling of switching reproduction which allows analyzing the interaction of fnancial and real sectors of economy in developing countries. Practical significance the model allows estimating the consequences of decisions in the feld of currencymonetary policy in developing countries

On the evolution of the model of shifting mode of reproduction

Objective to analyze the evolution of shifting mode of reproduction SMR models to construct the SMR3 model. Methods abstractlogical method methods of modelling the economic dynamics in relation to the switching regime of reproduction of fixed capital. Results despite the fact that fixed capital is necessarily taken into account both in reproduction schemes and in models of economic growth the peculiarities of economy functioning arising from the coexistence of different generations of fixed capital have remained outside both the economic mainstream and heterodox studies. The article briefly describes the theory of switching reproduction regime SMR which fills this gap. Several types of SMR models SMR1 SMR2 SMR3 are considered which differ from each other in the degree of the monetary mechanism development that serves the reproduction processes occurring in the real sector of the economy. By the example of determining the degree of influence of the fixed capital investments structure on the key macro indicators in the Russian Federation the possibilities of the most advanced SMR3 model are demonstrated. On this basis the scenario was simulated of the Russian economy transition from the typical for 2014 financing structure 46 ndash own funds 30 ndash funds of budget and higher organizations 24 ndash other borrowed funds loans to the new structure where own funds are equal to 50 funds of budget and higher organizations ndash 20 other borrowed funds ndash 30 . It is established that this transition contributes to the growth of profitability and GDP. nbsp Scientific novelty the model SMR3 is constructed which allows to take into account the functioning of the banking system and the budget mechanism based on the effect of ergodicity and the fact that the funds coming from all subsystems to the updated subsystem are not only credit resources but also the socalled intracompany funds flowing into the updated subsystem at no cost. Practical significance it is shown that the SMR3 model can be used to carry out practical calculations for various scenarios of socioeconomic development

Forecast of the dynamics of world import by commodity groups

Objective to forecast the structure and volume of world imports by commodity groups. Methods statistical processing of global trade data with Big Data methods regression and correlation analysis. Results the Russian economy needs to restructure exports. To solve this problem it is important to assess and forecast the global demand for certain goods. The article presents the results of the analysis of the main trends and forecasts of the development of individual industries as well as their place in the global trade. It is shown that in accordance with the forecasts of analysts there are significant prospects in the coming years in the fields of pharmaceutics automotive industry aircraft production telecommunications etc. UNCTAD data with a sample of product groups for each country were used to model the forecast demand for product groups. As a result of the trends modeling the article identifies the main product categories that will have the greatest growth in the global trade. It is established that the constructed forecasts correspond to the data of economic research and forecasts of analytical companies. The article also determines the relationship between imports of goods by country and various indicators. The indicators that are characterized by the highest level of correlation with the studied product categories are revealed. On the basis of the obtained results the conclusions are formulated about the most promising sectors for Russian exports in order to transit to a nonresource economy. Scientific novelty the technique is developed which enables to make longterm forecasts of trade dynamics of large volumes of data. Practical significance the results of the forecast should be used to determine the priorities of Russiarsquos industrial policy aimed at accelerated transition to a nonresource economy

A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems

The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented