The 2008 Presidential Primaries through the Lens of Prediction Markets

To explore the influence of primary and caucus results during the 2008 nomination process we leverage a previously unused methodology---the analysis of prediction market contracts. The unique structure of prediction markets allows us to address two questions. First, we analyze whether primary and caucus results affect candidates' chances in the general election, as candidates who take extreme positions during the nomination contest may be unable to easily appeal to centrist voters in the general election. We also assess whether states with early primaries, such as Iowa and New Hampshire, have a disproportionate effect on the nominating process. We show that the length of the primary process has a minimal impact of the electability of candidates in the general election, and that some states have a disproportionate impact on the nominating process. However, the states that have the largest impact are not necessarily New Hampshire and Iowa, the two that have often been assumed to be the most influential because of their early position on the primary calendar

Text Messages as Mobilization Tools: The Conditional Effect of Habitual Voting and Election Salience

Dale and Strauss’s (DS) noticeable reminder theory (NRT) of voter mobilization posits that mobilization efforts that are highly noticeable and salient to potential voters, even if impersonal, can be successful. In an innovative experimental design, DS show that text messages substantially boost turnout, challenging previous claims that social connectedness is the key to increasing participation. We replicate DS’s research design and extend it in two key ways. First, whereas the treatment in DS’s experiment was a “warm” text message combined with contact, we test NRT more cleanly by examining the effect of “cold” text messages that are completely devoid of auxiliary interaction. Second, we test an implication of NRT that habitual voters should exhibit the largest treatment effects in lower salience elections whereas casual voters should exhibit the largest treatment effects in higher salience elections. Via these two extensions, we find support for NRT

Comparison of 12-Month Outcomes with Zotarolimus- and Paclitaxel-Eluting Stents: A Meta-Analysis

Revascularization after myocardial infarction is often achieved via percutaneous coronary intervention, which often entails stenting. Drug-eluting stents have shown benefits over bare metal stents in this setting, and a variety of drug-eluting stents are now available, including sirolimus-, paclitaxel-, and zotarolimus-eluting stents. There are studies that have compared the various drug-eluting stents and this meta-analysis pools data comparing 12-month clinical outcomes of zotarolimus- and paclitaxel-eluting stents. End points studied were myocardial infarction, major adverse cardiac events, cardiac death, all-cause death, stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularization, and target lesion revascularization.There was a statistically significant reduction in risk of myocardial infarction (odds ratio, 0.250, confidence interval, 0.160 to 0.392) and statistically insignificant reductions in major adverse cardiac events (odds ratio, 0.813, confidence interval, 0.656 to 1.007), cardiac death (odds ratio, 0.817, confidence interval, 0.359 to 1.857), all cause death (odds ratio, 0.820, confidence interval, 0.443 to 1.516), and target lesion revascularization (odds ratio, 0.936, confidence interval 0.702 to 1.247). There was a statistically significant increase in target vessel revascularization (odds ratio, 1.336, confidence interval, 1.003 to 1.778) and a statistically insignificant increase in stent thrombosis (odds ratio, 1.174, confidence interval, 0.604 to 2.280). These findings are similar to the individual studies although other studies have noted increased late loss with zotarolimus-eluting stents and this current data associated with late loss should be kept in mind when makimg clinical decisions regarding sent selection

How America's politics influence how we do business and who we want to work for

In the wake of the 2016 presidential election, America's partisan divide has become even more apparent, with more and more people feeling that they actively dislike members of the opposite party. In new research, Christopher McConnell, Yotam Margalit, Neil Malhotra and Matthew Levendusky find that this negativity also extends to work and other business relationships. Not only are people willing to accept less pay from an employer who shares their party affiliation, they are also more likely to buy from sellers who are similar

Determining false positives requires considering the totality of evidence

WORD COUNT: 498 Fowler and Montagnes (henceforth FM) independently replicate one finding in Healy, Malhotra, and Mo (henceforth HMM) that college football wins increase incumbent vote share (1, 2). While we interpret this result as evidence of irrelevant events impacting voters' decisions, which is consistent with established theory in the psychological and decision sciences literatures, FM conclude that chance is responsible. False positives can occur. Consequently, we performed several tests to address that possibility, but FM surprisingly ignore these analyses. While replication and re-analysis are important to scientific discovery, one cannot selectively consider pieces of evidence when evaluating past research. Our consideration of the totality of evidence (the full results in HMM and the new results in FM) leads us to conclude that college football games influence elections. Point 1: FM entirely ignore the most important analyses of the football data in HMM, the ones utilizing betting spreads to isolate surprise outcomes. The finding reported in the abstract of HMM (a 1.61 percentage point effect) comes from analyses comparing the actual outcomes of the games to what was projected beforehand by betting markets. This creates a quasi-experiment that isolates the surprise component of game outcomes. These "surprise wins" identify variation that has nothing to do with how good a team is in a given year altogether. This is the same approach use

Impact of the 2016 American College of Surgeons Guideline Revision on Overlapping Lumbar Fusion Cases at a Large Academic Medical Center

OBJECTIVE: The American College of Surgeons (ACS) u pdated its guidelines on overlapping surgery in 2016. The objective was to examine differences in postoperative outcomes after overlapping surgery either pre-ACS guide-line revision or post-guideline revision, in a coarsened exact matching sample. -METHODS: A total of 3327 consecutive adult patients u ndergoing single-level posterior lumbar fusion from 2013 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were separated into a pre-ACS guideline revision cohort (surgery before April 2016) or a post-guideline revision cohort (surgery after October 2016) for comparison. The primary outcomes were proportion of cases performed with any degree of overlap, and adverse events including 30-day and 90-day rates of readmission, reoperation, emergency department visit, morbidity, and mortality. Subsequently, coarsened exact matching was used among overlapping surgery patients only to assess the impact of the ACS guideline revision on overlapping outcomes, and control-ling for attending surgeon and key patient characteristics known to affect surgical outcomes. -RESULTS: After the implementation of the ACS guide-lines, fewer cases were performed with overlap (22.0% vs. 53.7%; P \u3c 0.001). Patients in the post-ACS guideline revi-sion cohort experienced improved rates of readmission and reoperation within 30 and 90 days. However, when limited to overlapping cases only, no differences were observed in overlap outcomes pre-ACS versus post-ACS guideline revision. Similarly, when exact matched on risk-associated patient characteristics and attending surgeon, overlapping surgery patients pre-ACS and post-ACS guideline revision experienced similar rates of 30-day and 90-day outcomes. -CONCLUSIONS: After the ACS guideline revision, no discernable impact was observed on postoperative out-comes after lumbar fusion performed with overlap

The Impact of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage on Operative Outcomes after Single-Level Lumbar Fusion

INTRODUCTION: The relationship between socioeconomic status and neurosurgical outcomes has been investigated with respect to insurance status or median household income, but few studies have considered more comprehensive measures of socioeconomic status. This study examines the relationship between Area Deprivation Index (ADI), a comprehensive measure of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage, and short-term postoperative outcomes after lumbar fusion surgery. METHODS: 1861 adult patients undergoing single-level, posterior-only lumbar fusion at a single, multihospital academic medical center were retrospectively enrolled. An ADI matching protocol was used to identify each patient\u27s 9-digit zip code and the zip code-associated ADI data. Primary outcomes included 30- and 90-day readmission, emergency department visits, reoperation, and surgical complication. Coarsened exact matching was used to match patients on key demographic and baseline characteristics known to independently affect neurosurgical outcomes. Odds ratios (ORs) were computed to compare patients in the top 10% of ADI versus lowest 40% of ADI.RESULTS: After matching (n = 212), patients in the highest 10% of ADI (compared to the lowest 40% of ADI) had significantly increased odds of 30- and 90-day readmission (OR = 5.00, P \u3c 0.001 and OR = 4.50, P \u3c 0.001), ED visits (OR = 3.00, P = 0.027 and OR = 2.88, P = 0.007), and reoperation (OR = 4.50, P = 0.039 and OR = 5.50, P = 0.013). There was no significant association with surgical complication (OR = 0.50, P = 0.63).CONCLUSIONS: Among otherwise similar patients, neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage (measured by ADI) was associated with worse short-term outcomes after single-level, posterior-only lumbar fusion. There was no significant association between ADI and surgical complications, suggesting that perioperative complications do not explain the socioeconomic disparities in outcomes

ALMA 1.3 Millimeter Map of the HD 95086 System

Planets and minor bodies such as asteroids, Kuiper-belt objects and comets are integral components of a planetary system. Interactions among them leave clues about the formation process of a planetary system. The signature of such interactions is most prominent through observations of its debris disk at millimeter wavelengths where emission is dominated by the population of large grains that stay close to their parent bodies. Here we present ALMA 1.3 mm observations of HD 95086, a young early-type star that hosts a directly imaged giant planet b and a massive debris disk with both asteroid- and Kuiper-belt analogs. The location of the Kuiper-belt analog is resolved for the first time. The system can be depicted as a broad ($\Delta R/R \sim$0.84), inclined (30\arcdeg$\pm$3\arcdeg) ring with millimeter emission peaked at 200$\pm$6 au from the star. The 1.3 mm disk emission is consistent with a broad disk with sharp boundaries from 106$\pm$6 to 320$\pm$20 au with a surface density distribution described by a power law with an index of --0.5$\pm$0.2. Our deep ALMA map also reveals a bright source located near the edge of the ring, whose brightness at 1.3 mm and potential spectral energy distribution are consistent with it being a luminous star-forming galaxy at high redshift. We set constraints on the orbital properties of planet b assuming co-planarity with the observed disk.Comment: accepted for publication in A