The effect of horizontal resolution on the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

The sensitivity of the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle to horizontal resolution is compared in three Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the Met Office Unified Model-Global Atmosphere 3.0 (MetUM-GA3), the Meteorological Research Institute AGCM3 (MRI-AGCM3) and Global High Resolution AGCM from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-HiRAM). For each model, we use two horizontal resolution configurations for the period 1998–2008. Increasing resolution consistently improves simulated precipitation and low-level circulation of the annual mean and the first two annual cycle modes, as measured by pattern correlation coefficient and Equitable Threat Score. Improvements in simulating the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal are region-dependent. No consistent response to resolution is found in simulating summer monsoon retreat. Regionally, increased resolution reduces the positive bias in simulated annual mean precipitation, the two annual-cycle modes over the West African monsoon and Northwestern Pacific monsoon. An overestimation of the solstitial mode and an underestimation of the equinoctial asymmetric mode of the East Asian monsoon are reduced in all high-resolution configurations. Systematic errors exist in lower-resolution models for simulating the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Higher resolution models consistently improve the early summer monsoon onset over East Asia and West Africa, but substantial differences exist in the responses over Indian monsoon region, where biases differ across the three low-resolution AGCMs. This study demonstrates the importance of a multi-model comparison when examining the added value of resolution and the importance of model physical parameterizations for the Indian monsoon simulation

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of 9 climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) over the 1985-2012 period

Exome-wide association study of pancreatic cancer risk

We conducted a case-control exome-wide association study to discover germline variants in coding regions that affect risk for pancreatic cancer, combining data from 5 studies. We analyzed exome and genome sequencing data from 437 patients with pancreatic cancer (cases) and 1922 individuals not known to have cancer (controls). In the primary analysis, BRCA2 had the strongest enrichment for rare inactivating variants (17/437 cases vs 3/1922 controls) (P=3.27x10(-6); exome-wide statistical significance threshold P<2.5x10(-6)). Cases had more rare inactivating variants in DNA repair genes than controls, even after excluding 13 genes known to predispose to pancreatic cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35, P=.045). At the suggestive threshold (P<.001), 6 genes were enriched for rare damaging variants (UHMK1, AP1G2, DNTA, CHST6, FGFR3, and EPHA1) and 7 genes had associations with pancreatic cancer risk, based on the sequence-kernel association test. We confirmed variants in BRCA2 as the most common high-penetrant genetic factor associated with pancreatic cancer and we also identified candidate pancreatic cancer genes. Large collaborations and novel approaches are needed to overcome the genetic heterogeneity of pancreatic cancer predisposition

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered

Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13-year present-day and future ($\sim$2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32\% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45\%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60\%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models

The social cognition of medical knowledge, with special reference to childhood epilepsy

This paper arose out of an engagement in medical communication courses at a Gulf university. It deploys a theoretical framework derived from a (critical) sociocognitive approach to discourse analysis in order to investigate three aspects of medical discourse relating to childhood epilepsy: the cognitive processes that are entailed in relating different types of medical knowledge to their communicative context; the types of medical knowledge that are constituted in the three different text types analysed; and the relationship between these different types of medical knowledge and the discursive features of each text type. The paper argues that there is a cognitive dimension to the human experience of understanding and talking about one specialized from of medical knowledge. It recommends that texts be studied in medical communication courses not just in terms of their discrete formal features but also critically, in terms of the knowledge which they produce, transmit and reproduce

High resolution global climate modelling; the UPSCALE project, a large simulation campaign

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3) atmosphere only global climate simulations over the period 1985–2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km), N216 (60 km) and N96 (130 km) as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a timeslice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century. These simulations were primarily performed using a 144 million core hour, single year grant of computing time from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) in 2012, with additional resources supplied by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the Met Office. Almost 400 terabytes of simulation data were generated on the HERMIT supercomputer at the High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart (HLRS), and transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster provided by the Science and Technology Facilities Council Centre for Data Archival (STFC CEDA) for analysis and storage. In this paper we describe the implementation of the project, present the technical challenges in terms of optimisation, data output, transfer and storage that such a project involves and include details of the model configuration and the composition of the UPSCALE data set. This data set is available for scientific analysis to allow assessment of the value of model resolution in both present and potential future climate conditions

Resolving and parameterising the ocean mesoscale in earth system models

Purpose of Review. Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. Recent Findings. The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth Systemmodels (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are alsomodels submitted toCMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Summary. Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity