On the question of parameters reconstruction accuracy for linear dynamic models with discrete time

Modern methods of analysis of social and economic processes suggest the application of economic and mathematical models among which dynamic models with discrete time are widely spread. The accuracy of these models identification significantly impacts the analysis results validity and decisions made on these results basis. The opportunity and conditions to get guaranteed estimations of reconstruction accuracy of parameters of linear dynamic models with discrete time are discussed in the article. The study is based on the observation results of a trajectory including random errors with different nature (measurement errors, model specification errors, external disturbances). Particular attention is paid to an opportunity of obtaining guaranteed estimates of accuracy of an approximate parameters reconstruction of linear systems with discrete time and random but finite memory. An overview of known approaches and techniques for construction of parameter estimates of vector autoregression models is presented in the study. All options of estimates of construction methods are based on relatively strong theories about the nature of random errors and disturbances (strict exogenity, orthogonality, non-correlatedness, normal distribution, etc.) in the framework of an econometric method. In this case, only interval estimates for unknown parameters and confident intervals corresponding to a given significance level can be constructed. The works that potentially estimate system parameter reconstruction accuracy have been revealed among the results referring to the research of the given task from the view point of the theory of linear difference systems with discrete time. However, we have revealed that all studies in this field are characterized by one concept that suggests the estimates to be made during complex computational task. This fact significantly complicates the derivation of evident guaranteed estimates of accuracy expressed in the frameworks of general restrictions with regard to observation errors. An original mathematically substantiated approach to the task at minimum of assumptions regarding observation errors is the novelty of the study. Corresponding theory about parameters reconstruction accuracy estimation has been suggested and proven in the frameworks of the approach. An algorithm and illustrating case study have also been described in the framework of the approach. The method and algorithm allow us solving the task of parameter reconstruction of dynamic models on the basis of observation results over the simulation process with an accuracy that exceeds of a commonly used procedure of the least square method and its generalizations. However, the significant distinction from the well-known results is that in the terms of the proven theory the accuracy of parameter estimates is guaranteed in a strictly deterministic sense. Further studies in this field will consider the application of the developed tools for obtaining guaranteed estimates to the analysis of dynamic models with discrete and continuous time (hybrid models) including in the system both difference equations with discrete time and equations with continuous time in a form of autonomous functional differential equations. This task solution will allow us to achieve new results in the field of consequence effect identification during simulation of real social and economic processes

ON ATTAINING THE PRESCRIBED QUALITY OF A CONTROLLED FOURTH ORDER SYSTEM

In this paper, we discuss a method of auxiliary controlled models and its application to solving some robust control problems for a system described by differential equations. As an illustration, a system of nonlinear differential equations of the fourth order is used. A solution algorithm, which is stable with respect to informational noise and computational errors, is presented. The algorithm is based on a combination of online state/input reconstruction and feedback control methods

Effects of compost and bio-fungicide application on organic potato yields in northwestern Russia

Organische landwirtschaftliche Methoden erleben heute eine rasante Entwicklung in Russland, es fehlt dabei aber an Empfehlungen zur Anwendung moderner Bio- Landbautechnologien, was besonders in der Region Nordwest für Schwierigkeiten sorgt, da die lokalen klimatischen Bedingungen für einige landwirtschaftliche Pflanzen wenig günstig sind. Ziel der Forschung ist es, marktfähige Technologien für den organischen Pflanzenbau zu entwickeln, einschließlich einer populären Kultur wie Kartoffeln. Die Arbeit begann mit einer Reihe von Feldversuchen, in denen die Wirkung verschiedener Kompostarten und biologischer Schutzmittel auf die Kulturpflanzen und ihre Qualität untersucht wurde. 2016 startete der organische Anbau von Kulturpflanzen in einer Sechsfelderfolge auf einer drei ha großen Versuchsstation des Institutes. Anbaumethoden von Feld- und Hackkulturen sind Schwerpunkt der Forschung. Nach zwei Jahren wurde in einheimischen Kartoffelsorten ein Ertrag von 24 bis 26 Tonnen pro Hektar mit hoher Produktqualität auch bei ungünstigen Wetterbedingungen erreicht, was die Wirksamkeit der Komposte, der biologischen Pflanzenschutzmittel und der relevanten technischen Maßnahmen deutlich zeigt

Geological and isotope-geochemical criteria of evident presence of ancient continental crust in Primorye basement

The totality of structural-tectonic, lithologic-mineralogical, isotope-geochemical data on the geology of Primorye and adjacent territories of Northeast China and the Amur Region allows us to justify the criterions for the existence of an ancient sialic crust in its foundation. The main of them are the following. 1. Mesozoic terrigenous rocks of the Sikhote-Alin folded formations are characterized by the Proterozoic model age, with more ancient for arkoses - to 2460 Ma (TNdDM2). They are composed mainly of granite-metamorphic mineral association and have zircons reaching the age of up to 2500 Ma. The terrigenous flysch is arkose-dominant. 2. Тhe territory of South-Western Primorye, is covered by Cenozoic basalts with Proterozoic model ages and anomalously low isotope ratios of lead [Pb206/Pb204], analogous to basalts developed on the ancient AR-PR1 lithospheric blocks. 3. Structural deformation tectonic plan reflects presence of a single ancient rigid foundation of the territory with conformly react to a change of the compression-tension regimes in long time cycles. 4. The abundance of potassium- and barium-rich magmatism with geochemical characteristics of kimberlites-lamproites very spread within Primorye and Amur Region. A similar type of magmatism is not typical for areas with juvenile crust and reflects the presence of the mature continental lithosphere. Since the late Proterozoic, the sialic crust of Primorye has been consistently degraded as a result of delamination and basification processes

Substantiation of the potential of dry grape wines of Russian origin as an anti-aging factor

Biochemical engineering is a new field of scientific research, the roots of which go back to chemical engineering (the development of economical commercial processes for converting raw materials into useful products) and biological engineering (the creation of useful, economically feasible products). Biochemical engineering uses the results obtained by biochemists in scientific typos to commercialize them. This comment fully reveals our research, revealing the potential of Russian grape wines in antiaging connotation. The main results are presented by resveratrol concentrations in samples of dry grape wines from various regions of viticulture and winemaking

On analysis of some factors of the sustainability of corporate business in the conditions of the covid-19 pandemic

The presented article aims to identify the key factors that can influence the success of sustainable management of corporate structures in a pandemic and post-pandemic state of the business environment. In the practical sphere, the authors set tasks to develop practical methods that can increase the efficiency of cost management in the strategic horizon and form a system of key performance indicators that allows to adequately assess the results of the corporation's activities. According to the authors, this should be done in advance and consider the lessons learned from cost management in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results were obtained while testing the hypothesis about the relationship between the strategic cost management system and the quality of corporate business. This hypothesis is rejected by the external approach to business quality but confirmed by the internal approach to business quality

Modeling of the Plasma 3D Deposition of Wire Materials

The numerical modeling of the physical process of manufacturing parts using additive technologies is complex and needs to consider a variety of thermomechanical behavior. This is connected with the extensive use of the finite element computer simulation by means of specialized software packages that implement mathematical models of the processes. The algorithm of calculation of nonstationary temperature fields and stress-strain state of the structure during the process of 3D deposition of wire materials developed and implemented in ANSYS is considered in the paper. The verification of the developed numerical algorithm for solving three-dimensional problem of the production of metal products using arc 3D deposition of wire materials with the results of the experiment is carried out. The data obtained from calculations on the developed numerical model are in good agreement with the experiment

Game Modeling of the Organization's Management Strategy and Training in Strategic Thinking Based on Game Analogies - Discussion

The article examines the problems arising in modern economic conditions in organizations of various sectors of the national economy in the implementation of strategically-oriented management systems. Despite the prevalence of such systems, there are great diffi culties in their modeling and development of strategic thinking among managers and entrepreneurs

CCL5/RANTES Gene Polymorphisms in Slavonic Patients with Myocardial Infarction

Coronary artery inflammation is a critical process in the pathogenesis of myocardial infarction (MI). The chemokine CCL5/RANTES (regulated upon activation, normal T cells expressed and secreted) is expressed in advanced atherosclerotic lesions. Functional polymorphisms of the RANTES gene can, therefore, be involved in the pathogenesis of coronary artery disease. We examined the association of polymorphisms in the RANTES gene with myocardial infarction in Slavonic populations of Czech and Russian origin. A total of 467 post-MI patients and 337 control subjects were genotyped for RANTES promoter G-403A (rs2107538) and intron 1.1 T/C (rs2280789) variants by PCR-SSP. Both RANTES genotypes and allele frequencies did not differ between case and control groups. Haplotype-based analysis also failed to reveal an association between MI and investigated markers. Strong linkage disequilibrium was detected between particular RANTES alleles. The data do not support an association between RANTES G-403A polymorphism and MI, as reported previously

EXAFS study of the Fex/ZrO2 composite nanomaterials obtained by sol-gel synthesis

The local Zr and Fe arrangements in the nanocomposite system Fex/ZrO2 (x=0-0.2) obtained by sol-gel method were studied by EXAFS. The phase composition was found to vary significantly on iron loading. For the samples calcined at 500 or 600°C, at x≤0.01, the formed ZrO2 is a mixture of monoclinic and tetragonal structures. Only tetragonal structure is revealed at x≥0.05 with the exception of Fe0.2/ZrO2, calcined at 500°C, where new non-typically short Zr-Zr distances (3.29, 3.43Å) were observed. At low iron loading (less than one monolayer) Fe3+ ions were found to localize within the pre-surface layers of ZrO2 nanoparticles showing property of isolated ions. For greater Fe loading, iron exhibits either two-dimensional layer structure or two-phase system.OTAN ENVIR.LG 971292Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) 00-03-32407