Argentina 2019: Broken Economy, Strengthened Democracy

On 27 October 2019, the Peronist presidential ticket of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner obtained victory in the first round of national elections, with 8 per cent more votes than President Mauricio Macri, who was seeking reelection. After a brief interregnum of Macri's four-year term, the Peronists - who had previously been in government for 12 consecutive years - will return to power in December. This time they will govern within a severely constraining situation, far away from the commodities boom that boosted redistribution policies during the "pink tide." Macri failed to deliver on his economic promises, and the coming government will face imminent debt services, in a context of high inflation. However, the elected and ruling presidents initiated the political transition with a cooperative attitude, facilitated by a calmed dollar after the adoption of strong controls to the exchange rate. Despite unsuccessful economics, Macri was able to retain more than 40 per cent of the vote. He won in six provinces, four of which are among the most populous and economically dynamic. The more modern and better-off portions of the electorate, which were less affected by the crisis, also voted in support of a balanced distribution of power and checks on the executive. Of the four governorships that renewed concurrently with the national elections, Macri retained just the City of Buenos Aires. He lost to the Frente de Todos the populous Buenos Aires province. The Peronists will govern in 14 provinces, of which 11 reelected their governors in spread elections throughout 2019. A crucial factor is how President-elect Fernández will deal with internal rivalries, especially with his vice-president. It is likely that the internal opposition will check the president as much as the external one, which is a recurrent feature in Peronist governments. Argentina has a long history of political instability, being particularly vulnerable under critical socioeconomic conditions. When stability is not a systemic feature, actors' strategies make the difference, and governing in hard times may be challenging, even for the party that has been used to deliver the longest spells in power. In 2019, the prospect of party alternation has helped to keep discontent away from the streets, but a slow (or non-existent) economic recovery will clash with impatient demands and expectations. Argentines may decide for party alternations in the midterm. In the short term, the maintenance of political cooperation seems crucial

Geografia eleitoral e manutenção do poder : a importância das bases eleitorais para a reeleição do executivo estadual

Monografia (graduação)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciência Política, 2013.No Brasil, país com uma democracia competitiva em todos os níveis de governo, a compreensão da dinâmica da reeleição em termos geográficos é um componente importante para o entendimento das estratégias políticas usadas pelos candidatos e do comportamento do eleitorado. Assim, o objetivo principal do estudo aqui realizado é verificar se há estabilidade geográfica da votação dos distritos informais quando ocorre a reeleição do grupo que está no poder e em qual cenário essa estabilidade é mais propensa, considerando quando é o candidato ou o partido que tentam se reeleger ou ainda quando o partido tenta se manter no poder, não encabeçando uma eleição, mas por meio da sua inserção em uma coligação partidária. Essas situações de reeleição serão analisadas a partir dos seguintes pares de eleições: 1998 e 2002, 2002 e 2006 e 2006 e 2010. O estudo se justifica por contribuir, mesmo que minimamente, com a literatura existente na análise dos determinantes para a reeleição do executivo estadual. ___________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTIn Brazil, a country with a competitive democracy at all levels of government, understanding the dynamics of re-election in geographical terms is important for understanding the political strategies used by the candidates and the electorate's behavior component. Thus, the main objective of the study carried out here is to check for geographic stability of informal voting districts reelection when the group is in power and that stability which scenario is more likely, considering when the candidate or party that attempt occurs reelection or where the party is trying to remain in power, not heading an election, but through their inclusion in a party coalition. Those situations reelection will be analyze from the following pairs of elections: 1998 and 2002, 2002 and 2006 and 2006 and 2010. The study is warranted to contribute, even if minimally, with the existing literature on the analysis of the determinants for the reelection of the state executive

Subnational Politics: An Emerging Research Agenda

All politics is local. This is the title of the book that describes the political trajectory of Democrat Tip O'Neill, the only US politician to serve consecutively during five legislatures (1977-1987) as Speaker of the US House. In his political biography, O'Neill says he heard from his father, "All politics is local. Don't forget that." when he lost the first election he ran for. His father could not have been more correct. Political participation and influence, as well as coming to power, exercising, and maintaining it depend on articulations and human relationships established at the local level, whether represented by a house, an office, a family, a neighborhood, or a city.Toda política é local. Esse é o nome do livro que conta a trajetória política do democrata Tip O’Neill, único político estadunidense a servir consecutivamente durante cinco legislaturas (1977-1987) como presidente da Câmara dos EUA. Na sua biografia política, O'Neill conta que ouviu do pai: "Toda política é local. Não se esqueça disso", quando ele perdeu a primeira eleição a que concorreu. Seu pai não poderia estar mais certo. A participação e influência política, bem como a chegada ao poder, o exercício e a manutenção dele dependem de articulações e relações humanas estabelecidas no nível local, seja o local representado por uma casa, um gabinete, uma família, seja por uma vizinhança, um bairro, uma cidade

Participação eleitoral e candidaturas independentes nas eleições autárquicas

Em ano de eleições autárquicas, apresentamos uma breve reflexão sobre duas dinâmicas eleitorais com implicações no desempenho da democracia local: a contínua fraca taxa de participação eleitoral e o crescendo de candidaturas de Grupos de Cidadãos Eleitores (GCE).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Identificação partidária e atitudes perante o passado autoritário: os casos do Brasil, do Chile e de Espanha

Os processos de democratização desencadeiam, de forma mais ou menos imediata, a adoção de medidas de justiça de transição, tais como a condenação dos responsáveis pela repressão cometida durante o regime autoritário, a criação de comissões de verdade e reconciliação, ou a reparação e o reconhecimento das vítimas da repressão. Essas medidas, por sua vez, expressam a forma como as democracias se relacionam com seu passado autoritário.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

No tan distintos: reformas y tensiones multinivel en la selección de candidaturas subnacionales en Argentina y Brasil

Argentina y Brasil ilustran cómo distintos diseños electorales impactan en la selección de candidaturas para cargos electivos subnacionales. En Argentina, la autonomía de las provincias para establecer sus propias normas electorales se extiende a la selección de candidaturas, pues es opcional la adhesión a la ley nacional. En Brasil, si bien la legislación electoral es común para todos los estados, las reglas al elegir candidaturas, ya sea a nivel nacional o subnacional, son establecidas por cada partido. En este artículo se analiza cómo las reformas políticas llevadas a cabo en ambas naciones han tenido efectos sobre la selección de candidaturas subnacionales. Utilizando el abordaje top-down para el análisis multinivel, argumentamos que las reformas políticas en estos dos países han planteado tensiones multinivel con impactos en sus sistemas electorales y partidarios que afectaron el grado de pluralidad y la transparencia de la oferta electoral. En Argentina, el proceso fallido de homogeneización vertical de la selección de candidaturas a través de las primarias, abiertas, simultáneas y obligatorias (PASO) ha impactado en las reformas electorales subnacionales y en las prácticas de los actores políticos provinciales. En el caso brasileño, la jurisprudencia y las reformas nacionales surgen para fomentar la coordinación entre los partidos en ambos niveles de gobierno. Los dos casos muestran una tendencia a las nominaciones de candidaturas cerradas y verticalistas.Argentina and Brazil illustrate how distinctive electoral designs impact candidate selection for subnational elective offices. In Argentina, the provinces' autonomy to establish their own electoral rules extends to the selection of candidates. Their adherence to the national law is optional. In Brazil, although all states share the same electoral legislation, the rules for choosing candidates are established by each political party, whether at the national or subnational level. This study analyzes how the political reforms carried out in both countries in recent years have affected the selection of subnational candidates. By applying a top-down approach for a multilevel analysis, we argue that political reforms driven from the national level in both countries have posed multilevel tensions that have had various effects on these electoral and party systems, impacting the degree of plurality and the transparency of the elections. In Argentina, the failed process of vertical homogenization of candidate selection through open, simultaneous, and obligatory primaries (PASO) has impacted subnational electoral reforms and practices among provincial political actors. In the Brazilian case, national jurisprudence and reforms have emerged to foster coordination between parties at both levels of government. Both cases show a tendency towards nominations of closed and vertical candidacies as a result of multilevel tensions

Between Renewal and Stability: Party System Change from a Multi-Level Perspective in Brazil (1998-2018)

The growth of the far right and election results in Brazil are often associated with national or large-scale events. The multi-level features of these developments, namely party competition at the sub-national level, are overlooked in the literature. This article argues that changes in the Brazilian national party system - those observed from Bolsonaro's election, mainly - are rooted in sub-national political dynamics. Through a comparative and longitudinal analysis of multi-level executive and legislative elections, we find that, although there are distinct patterns of competition between the national-sub-national and within-country levels, this difference is not evident in volatility