Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, scenarios and policy implications

This paper presents the first comprehensive Energy Outlook for Mozambique, a country that since long is one of the poorest nations of the world but since recently also developing into a leading energy producer. We present projections until 2030, based on a newly developed integrated long-run scenario model, new national and regional energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. Our analysis shows an emerging ‘energy-dichotomy’ in Mozambique. On the one hand, the energy sector is characterized by a rapid and huge expansion. Until 2030, exploitation of the country’s reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower is likely to increase primary energy production at least six-fold and probably much more, most of which is destined for export. We show that, as a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets; it may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. On the other hand, our analysis shows that households continue to account for the major part of total energy consumption, with the majority of the population still being deprived from access to modern energy fuels by 2030. Hence, despite the spectacular rise of the extractive industry sector, population growth continues to be a key driver of energy consumption growth in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss the major challenges these findings pose for energy policy in Mozambique

Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, scenarios and policy implications

This paper presents the first comprehensive Energy Outlook for Mozambique, a country that since long is one of the poorest nations of the world but since recently also developing into a leading energy producer. We present projections until 2030, based on a newly developed integrated long-run scenario model, new national and regional energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. Our analysis shows an emerging ‘energy-dichotomy’ in Mozambique. On the one hand, the energy sector is characterized by a rapid and huge expansion. Until 2030, exploitation of the country’s reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower is likely to increase primary energy production at least six-fold and probably much more, most of which is destined for export. We show that, as a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets; it may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. On the other hand, our analysis shows that households continue to account for the major part of total energy consumption, with the majority of the population still being deprived from access to modern energy fuels by 2030. Hence, despite the spectacular rise of the extractive industry sector, population growth continues to be a key driver of energy consumption growth in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss the major challenges these findings pose for energy policy in Mozambique

Assessing the greenhouse gas impact of a renewable energy feed-in tariff policy in mozambique:Towards ndc ambition and recommendations to effectively measure, report, and verify its implementation

Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA) have agreed on the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to well below 2◦C and are pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5◦C. Countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) comprise the main framework used to achieve this. In this context, Mozambique’s NDC includes, amongst other actions, increased renewable energy (RE) generation. This article presents the results of the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of the Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff (REFIT), using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system model, in order to determine its potential contribution to Mozambique’s NDC’s goals and RE targets. Results from this study show that the REFIT regulation can be expected to contribute to reducing 0.34 MtCO2eq (0.6% of the NDC target for the electricity sector) by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. However, the NDC ambition could be enhanced through the REFIT and contribute to reducing 2.54 MtCO2eq (4.3% of the NDC target for the electricity sector) by 2030. The article further discusses the requirements for a robust measuring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system for climate policies, using REFIT as a case study, to facilitate effective tracking of NDC progress and achievement and transparent reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Analysis of high ozone events over Africa using aircraft data.

Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2002.Previous research has shown that there is considerable enhancement of tropospheric ozone over the African continent. The role of biomass burning as a source of ozone precursor gases and the atmospheric circulation, in particular the anticyclonic gyres over southern Africa, are known to be important in the accumulation of ozone over the subcontinent. In addition, the injection of ozone-rich air from the stratosphere is known to account for the occurrence of ozone peaks in the upper troposphere. This thesis is aimed at investigating the occurrence of high ozone events, defined as 2::100 ppbv, over Africa. Their variability in time (seasonal distribution) and space (latitudinal distribution) is quantified for the upper tropospheric region (~l 0 - 12 km) from 35°N to approximately 35°S . The data used are part of the MOZAIC (Measurement of OZone and wAter vapour by Airbus In-service airCraft) database. Ozone, water vapour. and temperature are measured at cruise altitude by these in-service aircraft, and this study explores data gathered on flights between Europe and Africa over the period January 1996 to December 1998. Complementary data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and satellite images are used to investigate case studies for selected flights in order to determine the origin of ozone episodes. Backward trajectory modeling is used to determine the source of air masses possibly related to ozone episodes. Correspondence with high potential vorticity and low water vapour content are used as stratospheric tracers and are indicative of stratospheric-tropospheric injection. Marked seasonal and latitudinal differences in the frequency and nature of ozone episodes are noted between the northern and southern latitudes. The seasonal variation of ozone episodes is more prominent in the extratropics than in the tropics. The highest frequencies are observed in the Northern Hemisphere to the north of 200N in spring and summer, and in the Southern Hemisphere to the south of 30°8 in winter and spring . Between these latitudes the distribution of peaks is sparse. An exception is observed during the austral spring when a relatively high number of peaks south of the equator is evident. The spring frequency peak is common to both hemispheres and is likely to result from a biomass burning influence, and stratospheric ozone injection into the troposphere during this season. Ozone peaks north of 15°N are greater in magnitude (up to 350 ppbv) than those in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere, where peaks do not exceed 200 ppbv. The horizontal extent of the ozone events ranged from a few tens of kilometers to over 1000 km in the boreal spring, although they seldom exceeded 100 km in the tropics. Two case studies were examined in detail. In the first case study, ozone peaks up to 180 ppbv were observed at approximately 12° S in the summer. They ranged between 3.5 and 21 km in horizontal extent and were accompanied by increased relative humidity and evidence of uplift. They were attributed to localized biomass burning and subsequent convective uplift to the upper troposphere. The possibility of enhancement due to convective uplift and lightning production was discussed. The second case study, in which an ozone peak of 287 ppbv was observed at approximately 31°S in springtime, had a horizontal extent of 840 km and was accompanied by low relative humidity values and high potential vorticity, indicative of air of stratospheric origin

Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique

Mozambique is rapidly emerging as one of the leading energy producers in Africa. We develop a comprehensive scenario analysis to review the energy revolution in Mozambique. Like much of Africa, Mozambique features a competition between development of its vast reserves of renewable energy and fossil fuels. We assess the implied energy and emissions transitions as well as the potential impact of a range of sustainable policy options. Our analysis reveals an emerging ‘energy dichotomy’, where a spectacular expansion of energy production goes together with an only gradual energy consumption transition. We find that over time the share of modern renewable energy sources tends to marginalize in the energy production mix while remaining stable in the energy consumption mix. About one-third of the GHG emissions associated with energy production can be linked to energy export. Also, we find that sustainable energy policies at the supply side lead to far higher cumulative emission reductions than demand-side policies. Finally, we show that even in the long run, a complete ban on thermal electricity generation capacity in Mozambique would by no means lead to shortages in the domestic electricity market but only slightly limit potential electricity export

Bayoloji. Fasalka Labaad 2. Dugsiga sare

Buuggaani waxaa loogu talagalay inuu ardayda fikrad ka siiyo Bayoolojiya, gaar ahaan sida taddawurku u dhaco iyada oo sal looga dhigayo aragtidii taddawurka ee Darwin._-_Questo libro è incentrato in modo particolare sull’evoluzionismo prendendo come base le teorie darwiniane._-_A book on Darwinian evolution

A solar energy resources assessment in Mozambique

Just as with other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces severe, interrelated problems of energy and environment linked, with massive consumption of fuel wood biomass. The conventional power grid provides less than 7% of the energy needs for the country's 17 million inhabitants, and about 83% of the energy consumed in the country comes from biomass. Renewable energy resources can play an important role in the process of development of the country. From the vast renewable energy resources available in the country, solar energy represents one of those with the highest potential. Thus, the evaluation of the potential of solar energy systems in small-scale applications suitable for villages is a strategically good starting point for promotion of sustainable rural development. One of the major impediments In carrying out such studies is the fact that the exact behaviour of solar energy resources throughout the country has not been well studied. In this paper a general characterisation of the global, diffuse and direct solar radiation fields in Mozambique Is presented. The study Is based on experimental data measured by the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) In the period 1970-2000. For these analyses global, diffuse and direct solar radiation data from three stations along the coast line and three stations in the interior of the country have been used. The six stations were representative of the three main regions of the country, namely south, centre and north. Furthermore, sunshine hours data of one selected station was analysed

General characterisation of the solar radiation components in Mozambique

Just as with the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces severe and interrelated problems of energy and environment linked with the massive consumption of fuel wood biomass. The conventional power grid provides less than 7% of the energy needs for the country's 17 million inhabitants, and about 83% of the energy consumed in the country comes from biomass. Areas around the major urban centres and along the main development corridors are the most affected by energy shortages. This hinders the country's economic and social development as it is generally acknowledged that no development can be sustainable without linking it to energy planning and environmental management. Renewable energy resources can play an important role in the process of development of the country. From the vast renewable energy resources available in the country, solar energy represents one of those with the highest potential. Thus the evaluation of the potential of solar energy systems in small-scale applications suitable for villages is a strategically good starting point for promotion of a sustainable rural development. One of the major impediments in carrying out such studies is the fact that the exact behaviour of solar energy resources throughout the country has not been well studied yet. In this paper a general characterisation of the global, diffuse and direct solar radiation fields in Mozambique is presented. The study is based on experimental data measured by the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) in the period 1970-2000. Data from 11 stations recording global solar radiation, from 6 stations measuring diffuse solar radiation, as well as data from 80 sunshine hours stations have been used for this work. For this purpose the country has been divided into four main climate zones. The northern and coastal regions, representing 60% of the total surface of the country, have a tropical rain savanna climate. The inland parts of the central and southern edimentary terrains, with a share of 28%, have a dry savanna climate. A small area around the border crossing of the Limpopo River, representing 2% of the country's surface, has a dry desert climate, whereas the upland areas, with a share of 10%, have a humid temperate climate. Results of the present work reveal that the country has substantial solar energy resources for a variety of solar energy technologies. Areas with the dry savanna and dry desert climates, representing in total around 30% of the country's surface are particularly appropriate for dense placement of solar energy technologies