Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers

The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911-2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081°C per decade before 1981 to 0.334°C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44ms-1 before 1994 to 3.74ms-1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (-1.4°C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911-1980, 1981-1993, and 1994-2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997-1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994-2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate

The GstLAL Search Analysis Methods for Compact Binary Mergers in Advanced LIGO's Second and Advanced Virgo's First Observing Runs

After their successful first observing run (September 12, 2015 - January 12, 2016), the Advanced LIGO detectors were upgraded to increase their sensitivity for the second observing run (November 30, 2016 - August 26, 2017). The Advanced Virgo detector joined the second observing run on August 1, 2017. We discuss the updates that happened during this period in the GstLAL-based inspiral pipeline, which is used to detect gravitational waves from the coalescence of compact binaries both in low latency and an offline configuration. These updates include deployment of a zero-latency whitening filter to reduce the over-all latency of the pipeline by up to 32 seconds, incorporation of the Virgo data stream in the analysis, introduction of a single-detector search to analyze data from the periods when only one of the detectors is running, addition of new parameters to the likelihood ratio ranking statistic, increase in the parameter space of the search, and introduction of a template mass-dependent glitch-excision thresholding method.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, to be submitted to Phys. Rev. D, comments welcom

The GstLAL template bank for spinning compact binary mergers in the second observation run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo

We describe the methods used to construct the aligned-spin template bank of gravitational waveforms used by the GstLAL-based inspiral pipeline to analyze data from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo. The bank expands upon the parameter space covered during the first observing run, including coverage for merging compact binary systems with total mass between 2 $\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ and 400 $\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ and mass ratios between 1 and 97.989. Thus the systems targeted include merging neutron star-neutron star systems, neutron star-black hole binaries, and black hole-black hole binaries expanding into the intermediate-mass range. Component masses less than 2 $\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ have allowed (anti-)aligned spins between $\pm0.05$ while component masses greater than 2 $\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ have allowed (anti-)aligned between $\pm0.999$. The bank placement technique combines a stochastic method with a new grid-bank method to better isolate noisy templates, resulting in a total of 677,000 templates.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figure

Reimagining large river management using the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework in the Upper Mississippi River

Background: Large-river decision-makers are charged with maintaining diverse ecosystem services through unprecedented social-ecological transformations as climate change and other global stressors intensify. The interconnected, dendritic habitats of rivers, which often demarcate jurisdictional boundaries, generate complex management challenges. Here, we explore how the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework may enhance large-river management by promoting coordinated and deliberate responses to social-ecological trajectories of change. The RAD framework identifies the full decision space of potential management approaches, wherein managers may resist change to maintain historical conditions, accept change toward different conditions, or direct change to a specified future with novel conditions. In the Upper Mississippi River System, managers are facing social-ecological transformations from more frequent and extreme high-water events. We illustrate how RAD-informed basin-, reach-, and site-scale decisions could: (1) provide cross-spatial scale framing; (2) open the entire decision space of potential management approaches; and (3) enhance coordinated inter-jurisdictional management in response to the trajectory of the Upper Mississippi River hydrograph. Results: The RAD framework helps identify plausible long-term trajectories in different reaches (or subbasins) of the river and how the associated social-ecological transformations could be managed by altering site-scale conditions. Strategic reach-scale objectives may reprioritize how, where, and when site conditions could be altered to contribute to the basin goal, given the basin’s plausible trajectories of change (e.g., by coordinating action across sites to alter habitat connectivity, diversity, and redundancy in the river mosaic). Conclusions: When faced with long-term systemic transformations (e.g., \u3e 50 years), the RAD framework helps explicitly consider whether or when the basin vision or goals may no longer be achievable, and direct options may open yet unconsidered potential for the basin. Embedding the RAD framework in hierarchical decision-making clarifies that the selection of actions in space and time should be derived from basin-wide goals and reach-scale objectives to ensure that site-scale actions contribute effectively to the larger river habitat mosaic. Embedding the RAD framework in large-river decisions can provide the necessary conduit to link flexibility and innovation at the site scale with stability at larger scales for adaptive governance of changing social-ecological systems

A binary tree approach to template placement for searches for gravitational waves from compact binary mergers

We demonstrate a new geometric method for fast template placement for searches for gravitational waves from the inspiral, merger and ringdown of compact binaries. The method is based on a binary tree decomposition of the template bank parameter space into non-overlapping hypercubes. We use a numerical approximation of the signal overlap metric at the center of each hypercube to estimate the number of templates required to cover the hypercube and determine whether to further split the hypercube. As long as the expected number of templates in a given cube is greater than a given threshold, we split the cube along its longest edge according to the metric. When the expected number of templates in a given hypercube drops below this threshold, the splitting stops and a template is placed at the center of the hypercube. Using this method, we generate aligned-spin template banks covering the mass range suitable for a search of Advanced LIGO data. The aligned-spin bank required ~24 CPU-hours and produced 2 million templates. In general, we find that other methods, namely stochastic placement, produces a more strictly bounded loss in match between waveforms, with the same minimal match between waveforms requiring about twice as many templates with our proposed algorithm. Though we note that the average match is higher, which would lead to a higher detection efficiency. Our primary motivation is not to strictly minimize the number of templates with this algorithm, but rather to produce a bank with useful geometric properties in the physical parameter space coordinates. Such properties are useful for population modeling and parameter estimation