The asymmetric unemployment response of natives and foreigners to migration shocks

This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of net migration shocks in Germany. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2019 and a variety of identification strategies in a structural vector autoregressive model, we show that migration shocks are expansionary. Net migration increases persistently industrial production, per capita net exports and tax revenue. In the labor market, migration boosts persistently job openings and, after a year and a half, hourly wages in manufacturing. Total unemployment declines but the response is asymmetric between natives and foreigners. Unemployment falls persistently for natives while it rises a year after the shock for foreigners as the newly settled migrants enter the labor market gradually. Using also quarterly data in a mixed-frequency SVAR, we shed light on the employment and participation responses for natives and foreigners. We also show that migration shocks increase per capita GDP, investment, and hourly wages of the aggregate economy. Taken together, our results highlight a job-creation effect for natives and a job-competition effect for foreigners

Simulations of the Microwave Sky and of its ``Observations''

Here follows a preliminary report on the construction of fake millimeter and sub-millimeter skies, as observed by virtual instruments, e.g. the COBRA/SAMBA mission, using theoretical modeling and data extrapolations. Our goal is to create maps as realistic as possible of the relevant physical contributions which may contribute to the detected signals. This astrophysical modeling is followed by simulations of the measurement process itself by a given instrumental configuration. This will enable a precise determination of what can and cannot be achieved with a particular experimental configuration, and provide a feedback on how to improve the overall design. It is a key step on the way to define procedures for the separation of the different physical processes in the future observed maps. Note that this tool will also prove useful in preparing and analyzing current (\eg\ balloon borne) Microwave Background experiments. Keywords: Cosmology -- Microwave Background Anisotropies.Comment: 6 pages of uuencoded compressed postscript (1.2 Mb uncompressed), to appear in the proceedings of the meeting "Far Infrared and Sub-millimeter Space Missions in the Next Decade'', Paris, France, Eds. M. Sauvage, Space Science Revie

Nonlinear Transmission of Financial Shocks: Some New Evidence

Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial shocks have become more important for economic fluctuations after 2000 and have contributed substantially to deepening the recessions of 2001 and 2008. The evidence is obtained using a new econometric procedure based on a Vector Moving Average representation that includes a nonlinear function of the financial shock. This method is a contribution of the present work

Simulations for single-dish intensity mapping experiments

HI intensity mapping is an emerging tool to probe dark energy. Observations of the redshifted HI signal will be contaminated by instrumental noise, atmospheric and Galactic foregrounds. The latter is expected to be four orders of magnitude brighter than the HI emission we wish to detect. We present a simulation of single-dish observations including an instrumental noise model with 1/f and white noise, and sky emission with a diffuse Galactic foreground and HI emission. We consider two foreground cleaning methods: spectral parametric fitting and principal component analysis. For a smooth frequency spectrum of the foreground and instrumental effects, we find that the parametric fitting method provides residuals that are still contaminated by foreground and 1/f noise, but the principal component analysis can remove this contamination down to the thermal noise level. This method is robust for a range of different models of foreground and noise, and so constitutes a promising way to recover the HI signal from the data. However, it induces a leakage of the cosmological signal into the subtracted foreground of around 5%. The efficiency of the component separation methods depends heavily on the smoothness of the frequency spectrum of the foreground and the 1/f noise. We find that as, long as the spectral variations over the band are slow compared to the channel width, the foreground cleaning method still works.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to MNRA

HI intensity mapping with FAST

We discuss the detectability of large-scale HI intensity fluctuations using the FAST telescope. We present forecasts for the accuracy of measuring the Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations and constraining the properties of dark energy. The FAST $19$-beam L-band receivers ($1.05$--$1.45$ GHz) can provide constraints on the matter power spectrum and dark energy equation of state parameters ($w_{0},w_{a}$) that are comparable to the BINGO and CHIME experiments. For one year of integration time we find that the optimal survey area is $6000\,{\rm deg}^2$. However, observing with larger frequency coverage at higher redshift ($0.95$--$1.35$ GHz) improves the projected errorbars on the HI power spectrum by more than $2~\sigma$ confidence level. The combined constraints from FAST, CHIME, BINGO and Planck CMB observations can provide reliable, stringent constraints on the dark energy equation of state.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, submitted to "Frontiers in Radio Astronomy and FAST Early Sciences Symposium 2015" conference proceedin

Vasomotor symptoms in menopause: a biomarker of cardiovascular disease risk and other chronic diseases?

Menopausal disorders may include shorter-term symptoms, such as hot flushes and night sweats (vasomotor symptoms, VMS) and longer-term chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD), osteoporosis, and cognitive impairment. Initially, no clear link between the shorter-term symptoms and longer-term chronic conditions was evident and these disorders seemed to occur independently from each other. However, there is a growing body of evidence demonstrating that VMS may be a biomarker for chronic disease. In this review, the association between VMS and a range of chronic postmenopausal conditions including CVD, osteoporosis, and cognitive decline is discussed. Prevention of CVD in women, as for men, should be started early, and effective management of chronic disease in postmenopausal women has to start with the awareness that VMS during menopause are harbingers of things to come and should be treated accordingly

Fundamental mechanisms of energy exchanges in autonomous measurements based on dispersive qubit-light interaction

Measuring an observable that does not commute with the system's Hamiltonian usually leads to a variation of its energy. Unveiling the first link of the von Neumann chain, the quantum meter has to account for this energy change. Here, we consider an autonomous meter-system dynamics: a qubit interacting dispersively with a light pulse propagating in a one-dimensional waveguide. The light pulse (the meter) measures the qubit's state along the $z$-axis while the qubit's Hamiltonian is oriented along another direction. As the interaction is dispersive, photon number is conserved so that energy balance has to be attained by spectral deformations of the light pulse. An accurate and repeatable measurement can be achieved only by employing short pulses, where their spectral deformation is practically undetectable. Increasing the pulse's duration, the measurement's quality drops and the spectral deformation of the scattered field becomes visible. Building on analytical and numerical solutions, we reveal the mechanism underlying this spectral deformation and display how it compensates for the qubit's energy change. We explain the formation of a three-peak structure of the output spectrum and we provide the conditions under which this is observable.Comment: 9 pages plus appendices, 9 figure