Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran’s Lake Urmia basin

Abstract Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful

Economic Costs and Adaptations for Alternative Regulations of California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Stacy K. Tanaka, Christina R. Connell–Buck, Kaveh Madani, Josue Medellín-Azuara, Jay R. Lund, and Ellen Hanakdoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2014v9iss2art4Water exports from California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are an environmental concern because they reduce net outflows of fresh water from the Delta, and can entrain fish and disrupt flows within the Delta. If exports were no longer pumped from within the Delta, the regulatory issue becomes one of maintaining appropriate flows into and out of the Delta. This paper presents the results of two sets of hydro-economic optimization modeling runs, which were developed to represent a range of modified Delta operations and their economic and operational effects on California’s water supply system. The first set of runs represents decreasing export capacity from the Delta. The second set increases minimum net Delta outflow (MNDO) requirements. The hydro-economic model seeks the least–cost statewide water management scheme for water supply, including a wide range of resources and water management options. Results show that reducing exports or increasing MNDO requirements increase annual average statewide water scarcity, scarcity costs, and operating costs (from greater use of desalination, wastewater recycling, water treatment, and pumping). Effects of reduced exports are especially concentrated in agricultural communities in the southern Central Valley because of their loss of access to overall water supply exports and their ability to transfer remaining water to southern California. Increased outflow requirements increase water scarcity and associated costs throughout California. For an equivalent amount of average Delta outflows, statewide costs increase more rapidly when exports alone are reduced than when minimum outflow requirements are increased and effects are more widely distributed statewide.</p

Economic Costs and Adaptations for Alternative Regulations of California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Water exports from California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are an environmental concern because they reduce net outflows of fresh water from the Delta, and can entrain fish and disrupt flows within the Delta. If exports were no longer pumped from within the Delta, the regulatory issue becomes one of maintaining appropriate flows into and out of the Delta. This paper presents the results of two sets of hydro-economic optimization modeling runs, which were developed to represent a range of modified Delta operations and their economic and operational effects on California’s water supply system. The first set of runs represents decreasing export capacity from the Delta. The second set increases minimum net Delta outflow (MNDO) requirements. The hydro-economic model seeks the least–cost statewide water management scheme for water supply, including a wide range of resources and water management options. Results show that reducing exports or increasing MNDO requirements increase annual average statewide water scarcity, scarcity costs, and operating costs (from greater use of desalination, wastewater recycling, water treatment, and pumping). Effects of reduced exports are especially concentrated in agricultural communities in the southern Central Valley because of their loss of access to overall water supply exports and their ability to transfer remaining water to southern California. Increased outflow requirements increase water scarcity and associated costs throughout California. For an equivalent amount of average Delta outflows, statewide costs increase more rapidly when exports alone are reduced than when minimum outflow requirements are increased and effects are more widely distributed statewide

Economic Costs and Adaptations for Alternative Regulations of California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Water exports from California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are an environmental concern because they reduce net outflows of fresh water from the Delta, and can entrain fish and disrupt flows within the Delta. If exports were no longer pumped from within the Delta, the regulatory issue becomes one of maintaining appropriate flows into and out of the Delta. This paper presents the results of two sets of hydro-economic optimization modeling runs, which were developed to represent a range of modified Delta operations and their economic and operational effects on California’s water supply system. The first set of runs represents decreasing export capacity from the Delta. The second set increases minimum net Delta outflow (MNDO) requirements. The hydro-economic model seeks the least–cost statewide water management scheme for water supply, including a wide range of resources and water management options. Results show that reducing exports or increasing MNDO requirements increase annual average statewide water scarcity, scarcity costs, and operating costs (from greater use of desalination, wastewater recycling, water treatment, and pumping). Effects of reduced exports are especially concentrated in agricultural communities in the southern Central Valley because of their loss of access to overall water supply exports and their ability to transfer remaining water to southern California. Increased outflow requirements increase water scarcity and associated costs throughout California. For an equivalent amount of average Delta outflows, statewide costs increase more rapidly when exports alone are reduced than when minimum outflow requirements are increased and effects are more widely distributed statewide

Battling water limits to growth:lessons from water trends in the central plateau of Iran

Abstract The Zayandeh-Rud River Basin in the central plateau of Iran continues to grapple with water shortages due to a water-intensive development path made possible by a primarily supply-oriented water management approach to battle the water limits to growth. Despite inter-basin water transfers and increasing groundwater supply, recurring water shortages and associated tensions among stakeholders underscore key weaknesses in the current water management paradigm. There was an alarming trend of groundwater depletion in the basin’s four main aquifers in the 1993–2016 period as indicated by the results of the Mann-Kendall3 (MK3) test and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) of groundwater volume. The basin’s water resources declined by more than 6 BCM in 2016 compared to 2005 based on the equivalent water height (EWH) derived from monthly data (2002–2016) from the GRACE. The extensive groundwater depletion is an unequivocal evidence of reduced water availability in the face of growing basin-wide demand, necessitating water saving in all water use sectors. Implementing an integrated water resources management plan that accounts for evolving water supply priorities, growing demand and scarcity, and institutional changes is an urgent step to alleviate the growing tensions and preempt future water insecurity problems that are bound to occur if demand management approaches are delayed

Caspian Sea is eutrophying:the alarming message of satellite data

Abstract The competition over extracting the energy resources of the Caspian Sea together with the major anthropogenic changes in the coastal zones have resulted in increased pollution and environmental degradation of the sea. We provide the first evaluation of the spatiotemporal variation of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) across the Caspian Sea. Using remotely sensed data from 2003 to 2017, we found that the Caspian Sea has suffered from a growing increase in Chl-a, especially in warmer months. The shallow parts of the sea, near Russia and Kazakhstan, especially where the Volga and Terek rivers discharge large nutrient loads (nitrogen- and phosphorus-rich compounds) into the sea, have experienced the highest variations in Chl-a. The Carlson's trophic state index showed that during the study period, on average, about 12%, 26%, and 62% of the Caspian Sea's area was eutrophic, mesotrophic, and oligotrophic, respectively. The identified trends reflect an increasing rate of environmental degradation in the Caspian Sea, which has been the subject of conflict among its littoral states that since the collapse of the Soviet Union have remained unable to agree on a legal regime for governing the sea and its resources

Estimated impacts of climate warming on California’s high-elevation hydropower

California’s hydropower system is composed of high and low elevation power plants. There are more than 150 high-elevation power plants, at elevations above 1,000 feet (300 m). Most have modest reservoir storage capacities, but supply roughly 74% of California’s in-state hydropower. The expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter due to climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and increased snowmelt, might have important effects on power generation and revenues in California. The large storage capacities at low-elevation power plants provide flexibility to operations of these units under climate warming. However, with climate warming, the adaptability of the high-elevation hydropower system is in question as this system was designed to take advantage of snowpack, a natural reservoir. With so many high-elevation hydropower plants in California, estimation of climate warming effects by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. An Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) was developed to facilitate practical climate change and other low-resolution system-wide hydropower studies, based on the historical generation data of 137 high-elevation hydropower plants for which the data were complete for 14 years. Employing recent historical hourly energy prices, the model was used to explore energy generation in California for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. The system is sensitive to the quantity and timing of inflows. While dry warming and warming-only climate changes reduce average hydropower revenues, wet warming could increase revenue. Re-operation of available storage and generation capacities help compensate for snowpack losses to some extent. Storage capacity expansion and to a lesser extent generation capacity expansion both increase revenues, although such expansions might not be cost-effective

Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9355-z Adaptability and adaptations of California’s water supply system to dry climate warming

Abstract Economically optimal operational changes and adaptations for California’s water supply system are examined for a dry form of climate warming (GFDL CM2.1 A2) with year 2050 water demands and land use. Economically adaptive water management for this climate scenario is compared to a similar scenario with the historical climate. The effects of population growth and land use alone are developed for comparison. Compared with the historic hydrology, optimized operations for the dry climate warming scenario raise water scarcity and total operation costs by $490 million/year with year 2050 demands. Actual costs might be somewhat higher where non-economic objectives prevail in water management. The paper examines the economical mix of adaptation, technologies, policies, and operational changes available to keep water supply impacts to such modest levels. Results from this screening model suggest promising alternatives and likely responses and impacts. Optimized operations of ground and surface water storage change significantly with climate. Dry-warm climate change increases the seasonal storage range of surface reservoirs and aquifers. Surface reservoir peak storage usually occurs about a month earlier under dry-warm climate change.