Interaction of ENSO-driven Flood Variability and Anthropogenic Changes in Driving Channel Evolution: Corryong/ Nariel Creek, Australia

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Australian Geographer on 03/09/2015, available online: 10.1080/00049182.2015.1048595Understanding the relative contributions of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of channel change are important to inform river management, especially in the context of environmental change. This global debate is especially pertinent in Australia as catchments have been severely altered since recent European settlement, and there is also strong evidence of cyclical climate variability controlling environmental systems. Corryong/Nariel Creek is an ideal setting to further study the interaction between climate and anthropogenic changes on channel evolution as it has experienced both significant periods of flood and drought, controlled by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extensive anthropogenic changes. Since European settlement the floodplain has been completely cleared, the riparian zone almost entirely invaded by willows, and every reach of the channel has experienced some form of direct channel modification. Through the combined analysis of channel evolution, climate changes and anthropogenic history of the river it was found that both the ENSO-driven climate and anthropogenic drivers are significant, although at different scales of channel change. Significant straightening in response to land clearing in the early twentieth century occurred before any records of direct channel modifications. Following this, most river management works were in response to instabilities created in the clearing period, or to instabilities created by flooding triggering a new phase of instability in reaches which had already undergone stabilisation works. Overall, human activities triggered channel instability via land clearing, and management works since then generally exacerbated erosion during high flows that are driven by climate fluctuations. This research raises the interesting question of whether rivers in Australia have become more responsive to the ENSO cycle since the clearing of catchment and riparian vegetation, or whether the past response to climate variability was different

Climatic significance of the marginalization of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) c. 2500 BC at White Moss, south Cheshire, UK

Subfossil wood from White Moss, south Cheshire, has become the focus of palaeoenvironmental research employing not only conventional coring, pollen analysis, radiocarbon dating and dendrochronology on pine and oak, but also the exhumation of in situ peat areas and dendroecology of the pine ring-width records. Initial dendrochronological research at the site yielded five pine chronologies dating from 3520 to 2462 cal. BC. These and other data indicate three episodes of pine colonization of the mire in the period between 3643 and 1740 cal. BC. Comparison of the pollen and spore records suggest that pine became marginalized at the site c. 2500 cal. BC after successive episodes of increased wetness, and this may represent a staged response to climatic deterioration. Two oak chronologies were dated by reference to the Belfast and to English oak master chronologies to 3228-2898 BC and 2190-1891 BC, respectively, showing the possible co-existence of pine and oak on the mire for part of the time. Further dendrochronological work on subfossil pine at the site resulted in a chronology (WM4) that was cross-matched with pine from elsewhere in England, and subsequently dated absolutely to 2881-2559 BC. Detailed dendroecological information, such as fire episodes and periods of environmental stress indicated in the tree-ring records, have been assigned, precisely and accurately, to calendar years in prehistory. The detailed data show the potential for both dendroecological and wider palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental information that may become available from prehistoric bog-pine chronologies, which might then permit precise correlation and comparisons of proxy-climate data between sites

A simplified (modified) Duke Activity Status Index (M-DASI) to characterise functional capacity: A secondary analysis of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study

Background Accurate assessment of functional capacity, a predictor of postoperative morbidity and mortality, is essential to improving surgical planning and outcomes. We assessed if all 12 items of the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were equally important in reflecting exercise capacity. Methods In this secondary cross-sectional analysis of the international, multicentre Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study, we assessed cardiopulmonary exercise testing and DASI data from 1455 participants. Multivariable regression analyses were used to revise the DASI model in predicting an anaerobic threshold (AT) >11 ml kg −1 min −1 and peak oxygen consumption (VO 2 peak) >16 ml kg −1 min −1, cut-points that represent a reduced risk of postoperative complications. Results Five questions were identified to have dominance in predicting AT>11 ml kg −1 min −1 and VO 2 peak>16 ml.kg −1min −1. These items were included in the M-DASI-5Q and retained utility in predicting AT>11 ml.kg −1.min −1 (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic [AUROC]-AT: M-DASI-5Q=0.67 vs original 12-question DASI=0.66) and VO 2 peak (AUROC-VO2 peak: M-DASI-5Q 0.73 vs original 12-question DASI 0.71). Conversely, in a sensitivity analysis we removed one potentially sensitive question related to the ability to have sexual relations, and the ability of the remaining four questions (M-DASI-4Q) to predict an adequate functional threshold remained no worse than the original 12-question DASI model. Adding a dynamic component to the M-DASI-4Q by assessing the chronotropic response to exercise improved its ability to discriminate between those with VO 2 peak>16 ml.kg −1.min −1 and VO 2 peak<16 ml.kg −1.min −1. Conclusions The M-DASI provides a simple screening tool for further preoperative evaluation, including with cardiopulmonary exercise testing, to guide perioperative management