Measures and models for causal inference in cross-sectional studies: arguments for the appropriateness of the prevalence odds ratio and related logistic regression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several papers have discussed which effect measures are appropriate to capture the contrast between exposure groups in cross-sectional studies, and which related multivariate models are suitable. Although some have favored the Prevalence Ratio over the Prevalence Odds Ratio -- thus suggesting the use of log-binomial or robust Poisson instead of the logistic regression models -- this debate is still far from settled and requires close scrutiny.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In order to evaluate how accurately true causal parameters such as Incidence Density Ratio (IDR) or the Cumulative Incidence Ratio (CIR) are effectively estimated, this paper presents a series of scenarios in which a researcher happens to find a preset ratio of prevalences in a given cross-sectional study. Results show that, provided essential and non-waivable conditions for causal inference are met, the CIR is most often inestimable whether through the Prevalence Ratio or the Prevalence Odds Ratio, and that the latter is the measure that consistently yields an appropriate measure of the Incidence Density Ratio.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Multivariate regression models should be avoided when assumptions for causal inference from cross-sectional data do not hold. Nevertheless, if these assumptions are met, it is the logistic regression model that is best suited for this task as it provides a suitable estimate of the Incidence Density Ratio.</p

Computed Tomography Imaging of Primary Lung Cancer in Mice Using a Liposomal-Iodinated Contrast Agent

To investigate the utility of a liposomal-iodinated nanoparticle contrast agent and computed tomography (CT) imaging for characterization of primary nodules in genetically engineered mouse models of non-small cell lung cancer.Primary lung cancers with mutations in K-ras alone (Kras(LA1)) or in combination with p53 (LSL-Kras(G12D);p53(FL/FL)) were generated. A liposomal-iodine contrast agent containing 120 mg Iodine/mL was administered systemically at a dose of 16 µl/gm body weight. Longitudinal micro-CT imaging with cardio-respiratory gating was performed pre-contrast and at 0 hr, day 3, and day 7 post-contrast administration. CT-derived nodule sizes were used to assess tumor growth. Signal attenuation was measured in individual nodules to study dynamic enhancement of lung nodules.A good correlation was seen between volume and diameter-based assessment of nodules (R(2)>0.8) for both lung cancer models. The LSL-Kras(G12D);p53(FL/FL) model showed rapid growth as demonstrated by systemically higher volume changes compared to the lung nodules in Kras(LA1) mice (p<0.05). Early phase imaging using the nanoparticle contrast agent enabled visualization of nodule blood supply. Delayed-phase imaging demonstrated significant differential signal enhancement in the lung nodules of LSL-Kras(G12D);p53(FL/FL) mice compared to nodules in Kras(LA1) mice (p<0.05) indicating higher uptake and accumulation of the nanoparticle contrast agent in rapidly growing nodules.The nanoparticle iodinated contrast agent enabled visualization of blood supply to the nodules during the early-phase imaging. Delayed-phase imaging enabled characterization of slow growing and rapidly growing nodules based on signal enhancement. The use of this agent could facilitate early detection and diagnosis of pulmonary lesions as well as have implications on treatment response and monitoring

Reported frequency of physical activity in a large epidemiological study: relationship to specific activities and repeatability over time

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>How overall physical activity relates to specific activities and how reported activity changes over time may influence interpretation of observed associations between physical activity and health. We examine the relationships between various physical activities self-reported at different times in a large cohort study of middle-aged UK women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>At recruitment, Million Women Study participants completed a baseline questionnaire including questions on frequency of strenuous and of any physical activity. About 3 years later 589,896 women also completed a follow-up questionnaire reporting the hours they spent on a range of specific activities. Time spent on each activity was used to estimate the associated excess metabolic equivalent hours (MET-hours) and this value was compared across categories of physical activity reported at recruitment. Additionally, 18,655 women completed the baseline questionnaire twice, at intervals of up to 4 years; repeatability over time was assessed using the weighted kappa coefficient (κ_weighted) and absolute percentage agreement.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average number of hours per week women reported doing specific activities was 14.0 for housework, 4.5 for walking, 3.0 for gardening, 0.2 for cycling, and 1.4 for all strenuous activity. Time spent and the estimated excess MET-hours associated with each activity increased with increasing frequency of any or strenuous physical activity reported at baseline (tests for trend, P < 0.003), although the associations for housework were by far the weakest (Spearman correlations, 0.01 and -0.03 respectively for housework, and 0.11-0.37 for all other activities). Repeatability of responses to physical activity questions on the baseline questionnaire declined significantly over time. For strenuous activity, absolute agreement was 64% (κ_weighted= 0.71) for questionnaires administered less than 6 months apart, and 52% (κ_weighted= 0.51) for questionnaires more than 2 years apart. Corresponding values for any physical activity were 57% (κ_weighted= 0.67) and 47% (κ_weighted= 0.58).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this cohort, responses to simple questions on the frequency of any physical activity and of strenuous activity asked at baseline were associated with hours spent on specific activities and the associated estimated excess MET-hours expended, reported 3 years later. The weakest associations were with housework. Agreement for identical questions asked on two occasions about the frequency of physical activity decreased over time.</p

The Association of Left Ventricular Hypertrophy with Metabolic Syndrome is Dependent on Body Mass Index in Hypertensive Overweight or Obese Patients

Overweight (Ow) and obesity (Ob) influence blood pressure (BP) and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). It is unclear whether the presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) independently affects echocardiographic parameters in hypertension.380 Ow/Ob essential hypertensive patients (age ≤ 65 years) presenting for referred BP control-related problems. MetS was defined according to NCEP III/ATP with AHA modifications and LVH as LVM/h(2.7) ≥ 49.2 g/m(2.7) in males and ≥ 46.7 g/m(2.7) in females. Treatment intensity score (TIS) was used to control for BP treatment as previously reported.Hypertensive patients with MetS had significantly higher BMI, systolic and mean BP, interventricular septum and relative wall thickness and lower ejection fraction than those without MetS. LVM/h(2.7) was significantly higher in MetS patients (59.14 ± 14.97 vs. 55.33 ± 14.69 g/m(2.7); p = 0.022). Hypertensive patients with MetS had a 2.3-fold higher risk to have LVH/h(2.7) after adjustment for age, SBP and TIS (OR 2.34; 95%CI 1.40-3.92; p = 0.001), but MetS lost its independent relationship with LVH when BMI was included in the model.In Ow/Ob hypertensive patients MetS maintains its role of risk factor for LVH independently of age, SBP, and TIS, resulting in a useful predictor of target organ damage in clinical practice. However, MetS loses its independent relationship when BMI is taken into account, suggesting that the effects on MetS on LV parameters are mainly driven by the degree of adiposity

Diet, body size and menarche in a multiethnic cohort

A multiethnic cohort of 1378 Southern California school girls aged 8–13 years was followed for 4 years to evaluate factors predicting age at menarche, a risk factor for breast cancer. Height and weight were measured and dietary intake was assessed using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Of 939 girls providing data on menarcheal status, 767 were premenarcheal at the start of the study; 679 girls provided acceptable dietary data and were included in the analyses. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relationship between diet, body size, ethnicity and age at menarche. Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Island and African-American girls were more likely to experience early menarche than non-Hispanic white girls. Tall (> 148.6 cm) versus short (< 135.9 cm) girls experienced earlier menarche (relative hazard (RH) = 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1–4.1) as did those with high Quetelet's index (QI, kg m−2) (> 20.7) versus low QI (< 16.1) (RH = 2.2, 95% CI 1.7–2.9). Of all the dietary variables analysed, only energy intake was related to age at menarche. High versus low energy intake (> 12013 kJ vs < 7004 kJ) was associated with a delay in menarche (RH = 0.7, 95% CI 0.5–0.9); this finding was limited to a subset of heavy Hispanic girls who appeared to underreport their dietary intake. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

A digital pathway for genetic testing in UK NHS cancer patients: BRCA-DIRECT randomised study internal pilot

Background Germline genetic testing affords multiple opportunities for women with breast cancer, however, current UK NHS models for delivery of germline genetic testing are clinician-intensive and only a minority of breast cancer cases access testing. Methods We designed a rapid, digital pathway, supported by a genetics specialist hotline, for delivery of germline testing of BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 (BRCA-testing), integrated into routine UK NHS breast cancer care. We piloted the pathway, as part of the larger BRCA-DIRECT study, in 130 unselected breast cancer patients and gathered preliminary data from a randomised comparison of delivery of pre-test information digitally (fully-digital pathway) or via telephone consultation with a genetics professional (partially-digital pathway). Results Uptake of genetic testing was 98.4%, with good satisfaction reported for both the fully- and partially-digital pathways. Similar outcomes were observed in both arms regarding patient knowledge score and anxiety, with <5% of patients contacting the genetics specialist hotline. All progression criteria established for continuation of the study were met. Conclusion Pilot data indicates preliminary demonstration of feasibility and acceptability of a fully digital pathway for BRCA-testing and support proceeding to a full powered study for evaluation of non-inferiority of the fully-digital pathway, detailed quantitative assessment of outcomes, and operational economic analyses

Is blood pressure reduction a valid surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention? an analysis incorporating a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, a by-trial weighted errors-in-variables regression, the surrogate threshold effect (STE) and the biomarker-surrogacy (BioSurrogate) evaluation schema (BSES)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Blood pressure is considered to be a leading example of a valid surrogate endpoint. The aims of this study were to (i) formally evaluate systolic and diastolic blood pressure reduction as a surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention and (ii) determine what blood pressure reduction would predict a stroke benefit.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We identified randomised trials of at least six months duration comparing any pharmacologic anti-hypertensive treatment to placebo or no treatment, and reporting baseline blood pressure, on-trial blood pressure, and fatal and non-fatal stroke. Trials with fewer than five strokes in at least one arm were excluded. Errors-in-variables weighted least squares regression modelled the reduction in stroke as a function of systolic blood pressure reduction and diastolic blood pressure reduction respectively. The lower 95% prediction band was used to determine the minimum systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure difference, the surrogate threshold effect (STE), below which there would be no predicted stroke benefit. The STE was used to generate the surrogate threshold effect proportion (STEP), a surrogacy metric, which with the R-squared trial-level association was used to evaluate blood pressure as a surrogate endpoint for stroke using the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 18 qualifying trials representing all pharmacologic drug classes of antihypertensives, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, the surrogate threshold effect for a stroke benefit was 7.1 mmHg for systolic blood pressure and 2.4 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure. The trial-level association was 0.41 and 0.64 and the STEP was 66% and 78% for systolic and diastolic blood pressure respectively. The STE and STEP were more robust to measurement error in the independent variable than R-squared trial-level associations. Using the BSES3, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, systolic blood pressure was a B + grade and diastolic blood pressure was an A grade surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention. In comparison, using the same stroke data sets, no STEs could be estimated for cardiovascular (CV) mortality or all-cause mortality reduction, although the STE for CV mortality approached 25 mmHg for systolic blood pressure.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this report we provide the first surrogate threshold effect (STE) values for systolic and diastolic blood pressure. We suggest the STEs have face and content validity, evidenced by the inclusivity of trial populations, subject populations and pharmacologic intervention populations in their calculation. We propose that the STE and STEP metrics offer another method of evaluating the evidence supporting surrogate endpoints. We demonstrate how surrogacy evaluations are strengthened if formally evaluated within specific-context evaluation frameworks using the Biomarker- Surrogate Evaluation Schema (BSES3), and we discuss the implications of our evaluation of blood pressure on other biomarkers and patient-reported instruments in relation to surrogacy metrics and trial design.</p

Benign external hydrocephalus: a review, with emphasis on management

Benign external hydrocephalus in infants, characterized by macrocephaly and typical neuroimaging findings, is considered as a self-limiting condition and is therefore rarely treated. This review concerns all aspects of this condition: etiology, neuroimaging, symptoms and clinical findings, treatment, and outcome, with emphasis on management. The review is based on a systematic search in the Pubmed and Web of Science databases. The search covered various forms of hydrocephalus, extracerebral fluid, and macrocephaly. Studies reporting small children with idiopathic external hydrocephalus were included, mostly focusing on the studies reporting a long-term outcome. A total of 147 studies are included, the majority however with a limited methodological quality. Several theories regarding pathophysiology and various symptoms, signs, and clinical findings underscore the heterogeneity of the condition. Neuroimaging is important in the differentiation between external hydrocephalus and similar conditions. A transient delay of psychomotor development is commonly seen during childhood. A long-term outcome is scarcely reported, and the results are varying. Although most children with external hydrocephalus seem to do well both initially and in the long term, a substantial number of patients show temporary or permanent psychomotor delay. To verify that this truly is a benign condition, we suggest that future research on external hydrocephalus should focus on the long-term effects of surgical treatment as opposed to conservative management