Geography Rules Too! Economic Development and the Geography of Institutions

To explain cross-country income differences, research has recently focused on the so-called deep determinants of economic development, notably institutions and geography. This paper sheds a different light on these determinants. We use spatial econometrics to analyse the importance of the geography of institutions. We show that it is not only absolute geography, in terms of for instance climate, but also relative geography, the spatial linkages between countries, that matters for a country’s gdp per capita. Apart from a country’s own institutions, institutions in neighboring countries turn out to be relevant as well. This finding is robust to various alternative specifications.

Trade Costs, Market Access and Economic Geography: Why the Empirical Specification of Trade Costs Matters

Trade costs are a crucial in new economic geography (NEG) models. The unavailability of actual trade costs data requires the approximation of trade costs. Most NEG studies do not deal with the ramifications of the particular trade costs specification used. This paper shows that the specification of trade costs matters. Estimations of a NEG wage equation for a sample of 80 countries show how the relevance of the key NEG variable, market access, depends upon the trade costs specification. Our conclusion is that NEG needs to (re-)examine the sensitivity of its empirical findings to the handling of trade costs.

Economic Geography and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

The physical or absolute geography of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is often blamed for its poor economic performance. A country’s location however not only determines its absolute geography, it also pins down its relative position on the globe vis-à-vis other countries. This paper assesses the importance of relative geography, and access to foreign markets in particular, in explaining the substantial income differences between SSA countries. We base our empirical analysis on a new economic geography model. We first construct a measure of each SSA country’s market access based on bilateral trade flows and then assess the relevance of market access for economic development. In doing so, we explicitly distinguish between the importance of access to other SSA markets and to the rest of world respectively. We find that market access, and notably intra-SSA market access, has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita. This indicates that improving SSA market access (e.g. by investing in intra- SSA infrastructure or through increased SSA integration) will have substantial positive effects on its future economic development.Sub Saharan Africa, economic development, economic geography, market access

Looking for Multiple Equilibria when Geography Matters: German City Growth and the WWII Shock

Many modern trade and growth models are characterized by multiple equilibria. In theory the analysis of multiple equilibria is possible, but in practice it is difficult to test for the presence of multiple equilibria. Based on the methodology developed by Davis and Weinstein (2004) for the case of Japanese cities and WWII, we look for multiple equilibria in a model of German city growth. The strategic bombing of Germany during WWII enables us to assess the empirical relevance of multiple equilibria in a model of city-growth. In doing so, and in addition to the Davis and Weinstein framework, we look at the spatial inter-dependencies between cities. The main findings are twofold. First, multiple equilibria seem to be present in German city growth. Our evidence supports a model with 2 stable equilibria. Second, the explicit inclusion of geography matters. Evidence for multiple equilibria is weaker when spatial interdependencies are not taken into account.

Adding Geography to the New Economic Geography

For reasons of analytical tractability, new economic geography (NEG) models treat geography in a very simple way: attention is either confined to a simple 2-region or to an equidistant multi-region world. As a result, the main predictions regarding the impact of e.g. diminishing trade costs are based on these simple models. When doing empirical or policy work these simplifying assumptions become problematic and it may very well be that the conclusions from the simple models do not carry over to the heterogeneous geographical setting faced by the empirical researcher or policy maker. This paper tries to fill this gap by adding more realistic geography structures to the Puga (1999) model that encompasses several benchmark NEG models. By using extensive simulations we show that many, although not all, conclusions from the simple models do carry over to our multi-region setting with more realistic geography structures. Given these results, we then simulate the impact of increased EU integration on the spatial distribution of regional economic activity for a sample of 194-NUTSII regions and find that further integration will most likely be accompanied by higher levels of agglomeration.

A Century of Shocks: The Evolution of the German City Size Distribution 1925 – 1999

The empirical literature on city size distributions has mainly focused on the USA. The first major contribution of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the evolution and structure of the West-German city size distribution. Using a unique annual data set that covers most of the 20th century for 62 of West-Germany's largest cities, we look at the evolution of both the city size distribution as a whole and each city separately. The West-German case is of particular interest as it has undergone major shocks, most notably WWII. Our data set allows us to identify these shocks and provide evidence on the effects of these `quasi-natural experiments' on the city size distribution. The second major contribution of this paper is that we perform unit-root tests on individual German city sizes using a substantial number of observations to analyze the evolution of the individual cities that make up the German city size distribution. Our main findings are twofold. First, WWII has had a major and lasting impact on the city size distribution. Second, the overall city size distribution does not adhere to Zipf's Law. This second finding is largely based on the results of unit root tests for individual cities to test for Gibrat's Law, the latter being a requirement for Zipf's Law to hold for the overall city-size distribution. Together these two findings are consistent with theories emphasizing increasing returns to scale in city growth.

Relaxing Hukou - Increased Labor Mobility and China’s Economic Geography

China’s Hukou system poses severe restrictions on labor mobility. This paper assesses the consequences of relaxing these restrictions for China’s internal economic geography. We base our analysis on a new economic geography model. First, we obtain estimates of the important model parameters on the basis of information on 264 of China’s prefecture cities over the period 1999-2005. Second, and by using our estimation results as input, we simulate various long-run scenarios of China’s internal economic geography that differ in their degree of interregional labor mobility. We find that increased labor mobility will lead to more pronounced core-periphery outcomes. Interestingly, these agglomerations are not necessarily along the coastal regions. Given the increased importance of China’s internal market, firms agglomerate in the populous heartland of China. China’s internal demand will be the most important determinant of its future economic geography.Empirical and Theoretical Methods

Ice(berg) transport costs

Iceberg transport costs are a key ingredient of modern trade and economic geography models. Using detailed information on Boston’s nineteenth-century global ice trade, we show that the cost of shipping the only good that truly melts in transit is not well-proxied by this assumption. Additive cost components account for the largest part of per unit ice(berg) transport costs in practice. Moreover, the physics of the melt process and the practice of insulating the ice in transit meant that shipping ice is subject to economies of scale. This finding supports, from an unexpected historical angle, recent efforts to incorporate more realistic features of the transportation sector in trade and economic geography models

Adding geography to the new economic geography

An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the RePEc website: www.RePEc.org • from the CESifo website: Twww.CESifo-group.deT CESifo Working Paper No. 203