Carbon stable isotope analysis of cereal remains as a way to reconstruct water availability: preliminary results

Reconstructing past water availability, both as rainfall and irrigation, is important to answer questions about the way society reacts to climate and its changes and the role of irrigation in the development of social complexity. Carbon stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains is a potentially valuable method for reconstructing water availability. To further define the relationship between water availability and plant carbon isotope composition and to set up baseline values for the Southern Levant, grains of experimentally grown barley and sorghum were studied. The cereal crops were grown at three stations under five different irrigation regimes in Jordan. Results indicate that a positive but weak relationship exists between irrigation regime and total water input of barley grains, but no relationship was found for sorghum. The relationship for barley is site-specific and inter-annual variation was present at Deir ‘Alla, but not at Ramtha and Khirbet as-Samra

Contextualising seasonal climate forecasts by integrating local knowledge on drought in Malawi

Droughts and changing rainfall patterns due to natural climate variability and climate change, threaten the livelihoods of Malawi’s smallholder farmers, who constitute 80% of the population. Provision of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) is one means to potentially increase the resilience of rainfed farming to drought by informing farmers in their agricultural decisions. Local knowledge can play an important role in improving the value of SCFs, by making the forecast better-suited to the local environment and decision-making. This study explores whether the contextual relevance of the information provided in SCFs can be improved through the integration of farmers’ local knowledge in three districts in central and southern Malawi. A forecast threshold model is established that uses meteorological indicators before the rainy season as predictors of dry conditions during that season. Local knowledge informs our selection of the meteorological indicators as potential predictors. Verification of forecasts made with this model shows that meteorological indicators based on local knowledge have a predictive value for forecasting dry conditions in the rainy season. The forecast skill differs per location, with increased skill in the Southern Highlands climate zone. In addition, the local knowledge indicators show increased predictive value in forecasting locally relevant dry conditions, in comparison to the currently-used El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators. We argue that the inclusion of local knowledge in the current drought information system of Malawi may improve the SCFs for farmers. We show that it is possible to capture local knowledge using observed station and climate reanalysis data. Our approach could benefit National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the development of relevant climate services and support drought-risk reduction by humanitarian actors

Structuring properties of irrigation systems: Understanding relations between humans and hydraulics through modeling

Irrigation systems were clearly important in ancient times in supplying crops with water. This requires physical distribution facilities and socio-political arrangements to coordinate between actors. Resulting systems are highly diverse, and are being studied extensively within archeology and history. Whether initiated by a central authority or emerging from small-scale initiatives, irrigation systems are shaped through activities of individuals, households, and small groups into patterns and landscapes. This article discusses how hydraulic modeling techniques are powerful methodologies to study such irrigation development. Modeling daily interactions by agents and water fluxes will build better understanding of irrigation systems as anthropogenic landscapes. Three case studies will be used to illustrate this argument. A current irrigation system in Arequipa, Peru, shows that one can relate irrigation infrastructure and social action. A second case from Peru on a pre-Colombian irrigation system suggests that one can link irrigation system, water flows, and settlement. In the third case in the Jordan Valley, this possible link between irrigation and settlement is further studied.Water ManagementCivil Engineering and Geoscience

A remote sensing-based irrigation performance assessment: A case study of the Office du Niger in Mali

The irrigation performance of the Office du Niger in Mali, a large-scale rice-based irrigation scheme, was analysed with the use of remote sensing technology. The major advantage of remote sensing derived data over field measured data is that it provides system-wide, spatially distributed and objective information. Four irrigation performance indicators, entirely based on remote sensing, were applied at different organisational levels of the system. The surface energy balance algorithm for land model was applied to high-resolution Landsat images to calculate rice production and water consumption spatially. These maps were used to analyse the productivity of water, the uniformity of water consumption and head-/tail-enders issues at the level of the system, the five administrative zones and smaller management units (casiers). The sustainability of the system was assessed using a long-term time series of the normalised difference vegetation index. The results were discussed and interpreted with the irrigation managers of the Office du Niger. The analysis provided new insights in the performance of the system such as existing head–tail patterns in water consumption and rice yields.WatermanagementCivil Engineering and Geoscience