The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors

Larval development of the intertidal barnacles Chthamalus stellatus and Chthamalus montagui

Two recently-distinguished species of Chthamalus (Cirripedia) are found on rocky shores in the north-eastern Atlantic: C. stellatus predominant on islands and headlands and C. montagui more abundant in bays. Larvae of the two species were produced in laboratory cultures to describe and compare the morphology and to allow identification in plankton samples. Nauplius larvae of C. stellatus are up to 30% larger than those of C. montagui. Differences in setation are minor. The two species are easily distinguishable from the size and shape of the cephalic shield. Chthamalus stellatus has a subcircular shield with longer body processes in later stages while C. montagui is more ovoid. The former develop more slowly in culture than the latter. Chthamalus stellatus larvae in a culture at 19 °C reached stage VI in 16 d compared to 11 d for larvae of C. montagui at the same temperature. The morphology and longer development time of C. stellatus larvae suggests adaptation to a more oceanic lifestyle and wider dispersal to reach more fragmented habitats than larvae of C. montagui. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shoreline sentinels of global change show the consequences of extreme events

Anthropogenic climate change along with the more frequent extreme weather it prompts, are having direct and indirect effects on distributions and abundance of species with consequence for community structure—especially if habitat providers are lost. Rocky shores have long been recognized as tractable experimental arenas for ecology contributing to theory. They have also emerged as important sentinel systems for tracking climate change responses of marine biodiversity and ecosystems, capitalizing on both historic broadscale surveys and time series. Combining these twin traditions is a powerful approach for better understanding and forecasting climate change impacts. Sustained observing allows extreme events to be detected and explored by in-parallel experimentation

Impacts of Pervasive Climate Change and Extreme Events on Rocky Intertidal Communities: Evidence From Long-Term Data

Annual surveys of the abundance of intertidal invertebrates and macroalgae have been made at between 70 and 100 rocky intertidal time-series sites around the United Kingdom coastline since 2002 under the MarClim project. The data provide a unique opportunity to investigate the impacts of both pervasive climate change and their punctuation by extreme events on intertidal species. After the extreme storm events in the 2013/2014 winter season and the record heatwaves in the summers of 2018 and 2020, MarClim surveys recorded both physical and biological changes to rocky shore habitats. Subsequent surveys reassessed the effects on community structure via analysis of those species that resisted storm damage, those species that returned after the extreme storm events, and species that opportunistically occupied vacant habitat after storm-induced species loss. In addition, biannual storm damage surveys documenting communities recovery were carried out in the spring and winter of each year from 2014 to 2020 at three MarClim sites in north Cornwall (Crackington Haven, Trevone, and St. Ives), which experienced different types of abiotic and biotic damage resulting from these storms. Impacts of heatwaves and cold spells on the abundance of species were determined by regression on frequencies of event per year. Species of invertebrates and macroalgae generally declined in years of more frequent winter cold spells and summer heatwaves, while winter heatwaves and summer cold spells had similar numbers of positive and negative effects across species. Winter warm spells tended to have a more negative effect on cold-affinity species than on warm-affinity species. No abrupt shift was recorded after the 2013/2014 storms. Whilst a short-term change in some species was recorded in quantitative quadrat surveys, the biological communities returned to the long-term species composition and abundance within 2 years. The heatwave events caused sublethal heat damage in macroalgae, evidenced as dried areas of tissue on many individuals, with mortality-induced reductions in the abundance of only a few invertebrate species, recorded in Scotland and southwest England after the heatwave events in 2018 and 2020. MarClim and storm-damage surveys indicate that there have been no sustained impacts from either extreme thermal or storm events across the rocky intertidal communities, and biodiversity has not been significantly altered as a result. The abundance and biogeographical distributions of rocky intertidal species and communities around the United Kingdom are being driven by longer-term, large scale, pervasive change in environmental conditions, with a gradual shift towards dominance of Lusitanian species from the early 2000s in responses to warming of the marine climate

Global‐scale species distributions predict temperature‐related changes in species composition of rocky shore communities in Britain

Changes in rocky shore community composition as responses to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic warming can be shown by changes in average species thermal affinities. In this study, we derived thermal affinities for European Atlantic rocky intertidal species by matching their known distributions to patterns in average annual sea surface temperature. Average thermal affinities (the Community Temperature Index, CTI) tracked patterns in sea surface temperature from Portugal to Norway, but CTI for communities of macroalgae and plant species changed less than those composed of animal species. This reduced response was in line with the expectation that communities with a smaller range of thermal affinities among species would change less in composition along thermal gradients and over time. Local‐scale patterns in CTI over wave exposure gradients suggested that canopy macroalgae allow species with ranges centred in cooler than local temperatures (‘cold‐affinity’) to persist in otherwise too‐warm conditions. In annual surveys of rocky shores, communities of animal species in Shetland showed a shift in dominance towards warm‐affinity species (‘thermophilization’) with local warming from 1980 to 2018 but the community of plant and macroalgal species did not. From 2002 to 2018, communities in southwest Britain showed the reverse trend in CTI: declining average thermal affinities over a period of modest temperature decline. Despite the cooling, trends in species abundance were in line with the general mechanism of direction and magnitude of long‐term trends depending on the difference between species thermal affinities and local temperatures. Cold‐affinity species increased during cooling and warm‐affinity ones decreased. The consistency of responses across different communities and with general expectations based on species thermal characteristics suggests strong predictive accuracy of responses of community composition to anthropogenic warming

Phase 3 Multicenter Study of Revusiran in Patients with Hereditary Transthyretin-Mediated (hATTR) Amyloidosis with Cardiomyopathy (ENDEAVOUR)

PURPOSE: The Phase 3 ENDEAVOUR study evaluated revusiran, an investigational RNA interference therapeutic targeting hepatic transthyretin (TTR) production, for treating cardiomyopathy caused by hereditary transthyretin-mediated (hATTR) amyloidosis. / METHODS: Patients with hATTR amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy were randomized 2:1 to receive subcutaneous daily revusiran 500 mg (n = 140) or placebo (n = 66) for 5 days over a week followed by weekly doses. Co-primary endpoints were 6-min walk test distance and serum TTR reduction. / RESULTS: Revusiran treatment was stopped after a median of 6.71 months; the study Sponsor prematurely discontinued dosing due to an observed mortality imbalance between treatment arms. Eighteen (12.9%) patients on revusiran and 2 (3.0%) on placebo died during the on-treatment period. Most deaths in both treatment arms were adjudicated as cardiovascular due to heart failure (HF), consistent with the natural history of the disease. A post hoc safety investigation of patients treated with revusiran found that, at baseline, a greater proportion of those who died were ≥ 75 years and showed clinical evidence of more advanced HF compared with those who were alive throughout treatment. Revusiran pharmacokinetic exposures and TTR lowering did not show meaningful differences between patients who died and who were alive. Revusiran did not deleteriously affect echocardiographic parameters, cardiac biomarkers, or frequency of cardiovascular and HF hospitalization events. / CONCLUSIONS: Causes for the observed mortality imbalance associated with revusiran were thoroughly investigated and no clear causative mechanism could be identified. Although the results suggest similar progression of cardiac parameters in both treatment arms, a role for revusiran cannot be excluded. / CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02319005

Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

Time of emergence, which characterizes when significant signals of climate change will emerge from existing variability, is a useful and increasingly common metric. However, a more useful metric for understanding future climate change in the context of past experience may be the ratio of climate signal to noise (S/N)—a measure of the amplitude of change expressed in terms of units of existing variability. Here, we present S/N projections in the context of emergent climates (termed ‘unusual’, ‘unfamiliar’ and ‘unknown’ by reference to an individual’s lifetime), highlighting sensitivity to future emissions scenarios and geographical and human groupings. We show how for large sections of the world’s population, and for several geopolitical international groupings, mitigation can delay the onset of ‘unknown’ or ‘unfamiliar’ climates by decades, and perhaps even beyond 2100. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of mitigation accumulate over several decades, a key metric of which is reducing S/N, or keeping climate as familiar as possible. A relationship is also identified between cumulative emissions and patterns of emergent climate signals. Timely mitigation will therefore provide the greatest benefits to those facing the earliest impacts, many of whom are alive now