Statistical learning techniques applied to epidemiology: a simulated case-control comparison study with logistic regression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>When investigating covariate interactions and group associations with standard regression analyses, the relationship between the response variable and exposure may be difficult to characterize. When the relationship is nonlinear, linear modeling techniques do not capture the nonlinear information content. Statistical learning (SL) techniques with kernels are capable of addressing nonlinear problems without making parametric assumptions. However, these techniques do not produce findings relevant for epidemiologic interpretations. A simulated case-control study was used to contrast the information embedding characteristics and separation boundaries produced by a specific SL technique with logistic regression (LR) modeling representing a parametric approach. The SL technique was comprised of a kernel mapping in combination with a perceptron neural network. Because the LR model has an important epidemiologic interpretation, the SL method was modified to produce the analogous interpretation and generate odds ratios for comparison.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The SL approach is capable of generating odds ratios for main effects and risk factor interactions that better capture nonlinear relationships between exposure variables and outcome in comparison with LR.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The integration of SL methods in epidemiology may improve both the understanding and interpretation of complex exposure/disease relationships.</p

Evaluation of a joint Bioinformatics and Medical Informatics international course in Peru

Background: New technologies that emerge at the interface of computational and biomedical science could drive new advances in global health, therefore more training in technology is needed among health care workers. To assess the potential for informatics training using an approach designed to foster interaction at this interface, the University of Washington and the Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia developed and assessed a one-week course that included a new Bioinformatics (BIO) track along with an established Medical/Public Health Informatics track (MI) for participants in Peru. Methods: We assessed the background of the participants, and measured the knowledge gained by track-specific (MI or BIO) 30-minute pre- and post-tests. Participants' attitudes were evaluated both by daily evaluations and by an end-course evaluation. Results: Forty-three participants enrolled in the course - 20 in the MI track and 23 in the BIO track. Of 20 questions, the mean % score for the MI track increased from 49.7 pre-test (standard deviation or SD = 17.0) to 59.7 (SD = 15.2) for the post-test (P = 0.002, n = 18). The BIO track mean score increased from 33.6 pre-test to 51.2 post-test (P less than 0.001, n = 21). Most comments (76%) about any aspect of the course were positive. The main perceived strength of the course was the quality of the speakers, and the main perceived weakness was the short duration of the course. Overall, the course acceptability was very good to excellent with a rating of 4.1 (scale 1-5), and the usefulness of the course was rated as very good. Most participants (62.9%) expressed a positive opinion about having had the BIO and MI tracks come together for some of the lectures. Conclusion: Pre- and post-test results and the positive evaluations by the participants indicate that this first joint Bioinformatics and Medical/Public Health Informatics (MI and BIO) course was a success.The University of Washington AMAUTA Global Training in Health Informatics, a Fogarty International Center/NIH funded grant (5D43TW007551), and the AMAUTA Research Practica Program, a Puget Sound Partners for Global Health-funded grant

Oral Antimicrobial Peptides and Biological Control of Caries

The presence of antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) in saliva may be a biological factor that contributes to susceptibility or resistance to caries. This manuscript will review AMPs in saliva, consider their antimicrobial and immunomodulatory functions, and evaluate their potential role in the oral cavity for protection of the tooth surface as well as the oral mucosa. These AMPs are made in salivary gland and duct cells and have broad antimicrobial activity. Alpha-defensins and LL37 are also released by neutrophils into the gingival crevicular fluid. Both sources may account for their presence in saliva. A recent study in middle school children aimed to determine a possible correlation between caries prevalence in children and salivary concentrations of the antimicrobial peptides human beta-defensin-3 (hBD-3), the cathelicidin, LL37, and the alpha-defensins. The levels of these AMPs were highly variable in the population. While levels of LL37 and hBD-3 did not correlate with caries experience, the mean alpha-defensin level was significantly higher in children with no caries than in children with caries (p < 0.005). We conclude that several types of AMPs that may have a role in oral health are present in unstimulated saliva. Low salivary levels of alpha-defensin may represent a biological factor that contributes to caries susceptibility. Our observation could lead to new ways to prevent caries and to a new tool for caries risk assessment

Recent and Projected Increases in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Can Enhance Gene Flow between Wild and Genetically Altered Rice (Oryza sativa)

Although recent and projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide can alter plant phenological development, these changes have not been quantified in terms of floral outcrossing rates or gene transfer. Could differential phenological development in response to rising CO2 between genetically modified crops and wild, weedy relatives increase the spread of novel genes, potentially altering evolutionary fitness? Here we show that increasing CO2 from an early 20th century concentration (300 µmol mol−1) to current (400 µmol mol−1) and projected, mid-21st century (600 µmol mol−1) values, enhanced the flow of genes from wild, weedy rice to the genetically altered, herbicide resistant, cultivated population, with outcrossing increasing from 0.22% to 0.71% from 300 to 600 µmol mol−1. The increase in outcrossing and gene transfer was associated with differential increases in plant height, as well as greater tiller and panicle production in the wild, relative to the cultivated population. In addition, increasing CO2 also resulted in a greater synchronicity in flowering times between the two populations. The observed changes reported here resulted in a subsequent increase in rice dedomestication and a greater number of weedy, herbicide-resistant hybrid progeny. Overall, these data suggest that differential phenological responses to rising atmospheric CO2 could result in enhanced flow of novel genes and greater success of feral plant species in agroecosystems

Anaesthesia and airway management in mucopolysaccharidosis

Abstract This paper provides a detailed overview and dis-cussion of anaesthesia in patients with mucopolysacchari-dosis (MPS), the evaluation of risk factors in these patients and their anaesthetic management, including emergency airway issues. MPS represents a group of rare lysosomal storage disorders associated with an array of clinical mani-festations. The high prevalence of airway obstruction and restrictive pulmonary disease in combination with cardio-vascular manifestations poses a high anaesthetic risk to these patients. Typical anaesthetic problems include airway obstruction after induction or extubation, intubation diffi-culties or failure [can’t intubate, can’t ventilate (CICV)], possible emergency tracheostomy and cardiovascular and cervical spine issues. Because of the high anaesthetic risk, the benefits of a procedure in patients with MPS shoul

Amino Acid Availability Controls TRB3 Transcription in Liver through the GCN2/eIF2α/ATF4 Pathway

In mammals, plasma amino acid concentrations are markedly affected by dietary or pathological conditions. It has been well established that amino acids are involved in the control of gene expression. Up to now, all the information concerning the molecular mechanisms involved in the regulation of gene transcription by amino acid availability has been obtained in cultured cell lines. The present study aims to investigate the mechanisms involved in transcriptional activation of the TRB3 gene following amino acid limitation in mice liver. The results show that TRB3 is up-regulated in the liver of mice fed a leucine-deficient diet and that this induction is quickly reversible. Using transient transfection and chromatin immunoprecipitation approaches in hepatoma cells, we report the characterization of a functional Amino Acid Response Element (AARE) in the TRB3 promoter and the binding of ATF4, ATF2 and C/EBPβ to this AARE sequence. We also provide evidence that only the binding of ATF4 to the AARE plays a crucial role in the amino acid-regulated transcription of TRB3. In mouse liver, we demonstrate that the GCN2/eIF2α/ATF4 pathway is essential for the induction of the TRB3 gene transcription in response to a leucine-deficient diet. Therefore, this work establishes for the first time that the molecular mechanisms involved in the regulation of gene transcription by amino acid availability are functional in mouse liver

What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy

We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Euro-zone and the Rest of the World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference; the resulting model passes the Wald test only on outputs in the two countries. We then extract the model's implied residuals on unfiltered data to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. Banking shocks worsen the crisis but 'traditional' shocks explain the bulk of the crisis; the non-stationarity of the productivity shocks plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a 'run' of bad shocks; based on this sample Great Recessions occur on average once every quarter century. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises - provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample

Large-scale, prospective, observational studies in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis: A systematic and critical review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Observational studies, if conducted appropriately, play an important role in the decision-making process providing invaluable information on effectiveness, patient-reported outcomes and costs in a real-world environment. We conducted a systematic review of large-scale, prospective, cohort studies with the aim of (a) summarising design characteristics, the interventions or aspects of the disease studied and the outcomes measured and (b) investigating methodological quality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included prospective, cohort studies which included at least 100 adults with psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis. Studies were identified through searches in electronic databases (Pubmed, Medline, Cochrane library, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination). Information on study characteristics were extracted and tabulated and quality assessment, using a checklist of 18 questions, was conducted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty five papers covering 16 cohorts met the inclusion criteria. There were ten treatment-related studies, only two of which provided a comparison between treatments, and six non-treatment studies which examined a number of characteristics of the disease including mortality, morbidity, cost of illness and health-related quality of life. All studies included a clinical outcome measure and 11 included patient-reported outcomes, however only two studies reported information on patient utilities and two on costs. The quality of the assessed studies varied widely. Studies did well on a number of quality assessment questions including having clear objectives, documenting selection criteria, providing a representative sample, defining interventions/characteristics under study, defining and using appropriate outcomes, describing results clearly and using appropriate statistical tests. The quality assessment criteria least adhered to involved questions regarding sample size calculations, describing potential selection bias, defining and adjusting for confounders and losses to follow-up, and defining and describing a comparison group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The review highlights the need for well designed prospective observational studies on the effectiveness, patient-reported outcomes and economic impact of treatment regimes for patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis in a real-world environment.</p

Honesty above all else? Expectations and perceptions of political conduct in three established democracies

The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the ESRC (grant number RES-000-22-3459) and British Academy (grant numbers SG-101785 and SG-52322). They would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions