Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

HIV-Specific T-Cells Accumulate in the Liver in HCV/HIV Co-Infection

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV)-related liver disease progresses more rapidly in individuals co-infected with Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 (HIV), although the underlying immunologic mechanisms are unknown. We examined whether HIV-specific T-cells are identified in the liver of HCV/HIV co-infected individuals and promote liver inflammation through bystander immune responses. METHODS: Ex-vivo intra-hepatic lymphocytes from HCV mono-infected and HCV/HIV co-infected individuals were assessed for immune responses to HIV and HCV antigens by polychromatic flow cytometry. RESULTS: HCV/HIV liver biopsies had similar frequencies of lymphocytes but lower percentages of CD4+ T-cells compared to HCV biopsies. In co-infection, intra-hepatic HIV-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T-cells producing IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha were detected and were comparable in frequency to those that were HCV-specific. In co-infected individuals, viral-specific CD8+ T-cells produced more of the fibrogenic cytokine, TNF-alpha. In both mono- and co-infected individuals, intra-hepatic HCV-specific T-cells were poorly functional compared to HIV-specific T-cells. In co-infection, HAART was not associated with a reconstitution of intra-hepatic CD4+ T-cells and was associated with reduction in both HIV and HCV-specific intra-hepatic cytokine responses. CONCLUSION: The accumulation of functional HIV-specific T-cells in the liver during HCV/HIV co-infection may represent a bystander role for HIV in inducing faster progression of liver disease

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society

External costs: Myth or rationale for state intervention?

The paper considers the extent to which problems of environmental pollution can be left to the market system. The concept of external cost is used to establish the presumption that market forces will lead to excessive pollution. The performance criterion, that of Pareto efficiency, leading to this presumption is discussed. It is shown that for significant problems of pollution it is not possible to limit the role of the state to that of re-defining property rights. What is necessary is state intervention by way of the taxing, or regulation, of discharges into the environment: where external effects are undepletable, markets cannot meet the requirements of Pareto efficiency. Government intervention to meet such requirements requires that the government has information which is, in practice, either unavailable or very costly. Intervention towards more restricted goals is discussed. It is shown that arguments to the effect that the role of the state can be restricted to defining private property rights are based on assumptions which are irrelevant to significant problems. In particular, it is argued that a recent publication by the Institute of Economic Affairs does not, as claimed, show either that external costs do not exist, or that they exist but imply a minor role for the state in the protection of the natural environment.

Respondents to contingent valuation surveys: Consumers or citizens? Reply

The fundamental assumption of the contingent valuation method (CVM) is that responses to CV questionnaires may be interpreted as expressions of consumer preferences. The consumer preference interpretation has been challenged in recent papers arguing that willingness to pay for wildlife preservation is generated, at least in part, by ethical concerns, rather than by a view that wildlife preservation will yield any benefit to individual respondents. Some further evidence bearing upon these questions is derived from a study of forest management in Australia undertaken by the Resource Assessment Commission (RAC). The evidence supports the interpretation that respondents are acting primarily as citizens

Biodiversity, natural resource accounting and ecological monitoring

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