Observed Reductions in Schistosoma mansoni Transmission from Large-Scale Administration of Praziquantel in Uganda: A Mathematical Modelling Study

To date schistosomiasis control programmes based on chemotherapy have largely aimed at controlling morbidity in treated individuals rather than at suppressing transmission. In this study, a mathematical modelling approach was used to estimate reductions in the rate of Schistosoma mansoni reinfection following annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Uganda over four years (2003-2006). In doing this we aim to elucidate the benefits of MDA in reducing community transmission.Age-structured models were fitted to a longitudinal cohort followed up across successive rounds of annual treatment for four years (Baseline: 2003, TREATMENT: 2004-2006; n = 1,764). Instead of modelling contamination, infection and immunity processes separately, these functions were combined in order to estimate a composite force of infection (FOI), i.e., the rate of parasite acquisition by hosts.MDA achieved substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI following one round of treatment in areas of low baseline infection intensity, and following two rounds in areas with high and medium intensities. In all areas, the FOI remained suppressed following a third round of treatment.This study represents one of the first attempts to monitor reductions in the FOI within a large-scale MDA schistosomiasis morbidity control programme in sub-Saharan Africa. The results indicate that the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, as a model for other MDA programmes, is likely exerting a significant ancillary impact on reducing transmission within the community, and may provide health benefits to those who do not receive treatment. The results obtained will have implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control programmes and the design of monitoring and evaluation approaches in general

Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

Decolorization of synthetic melanoidins-containing wastewater by a bacterial consortium

The presence of melanoidins in molasses wastewater leads to water pollution both due to its dark brown color and its COD contents. In this study, a bacterial consortium isolated from waterfall sediment was tested for its decolorization. The identification of culturable bacteria by 16S rDNA based approach showed that the consortium composed of Klebsiella oxytoca, Serratia mercescens, Citrobacter sp. and unknown bacterium. In the context of academic study, prevention on the difficulties of providing effluent as well as its variations in compositions, several synthetic media prepared with respect to color and COD contents based on analysis of molasses wastewater, i.e., Viandox sauce (13.5% v/v), caramel (30% w/v), beet molasses wastewater (41.5% v/v) and sugarcane molasses wastewater (20% v/v) were used for decolorization using consortium with color removal 9.5, 1.13, 8.02 and 17.5%, respectively, within 2 days. However, Viandox sauce was retained for further study. The effect of initial pH and Viandox concentration on decolorization and growth of bacterial consortium were further determined. The highest decolorization of 18.3% was achieved at pH 4 after 2 day of incubation. Experiments on fresh or used medium and used or fresh bacterial cells, led to conclusion that the limitation of decolorization was due to nutritional deficiency. The effect of aeration on decolorization was also carried out in 2 L laboratory-scale suspended cell bioreactor. The maximum decolorization was 19.3% with aeration at KLa = 2.5836 h-1 (0.1 vvm)

Estimation of changes in the force of infection for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis in countries with Schistosomiasis Control Initiative-assisted programmes

The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI)

Distributed Fine-Grained Traffic Speed Prediction for Large-Scale Transportation Networks based on Automatic LSTM Customization and Sharing

Short-term traffic speed prediction has been an important research topic in the past decade, and many approaches have been introduced. However, providing fine-grained, accurate, and efficient traffic-speed prediction for large-scale transportation networks where numerous traffic detectors are deployed has not been well studied. In this paper, we propose DistPre, which is a distributed fine-grained traffic speed prediction scheme for large-scale transportation networks. To achieve fine-grained and accurate traffic-speed prediction, DistPre customizes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model with an appropriate hyperparameter configuration for a detector. To make such customization process efficient and applicable for large-scale transportation networks, DistPre conducts LSTM customization on a cluster of computation nodes and allows any trained LSTM model to be shared between different detectors. If a detector observes a similar traffic pattern to another one, DistPre directly shares the existing LSTM model between the two detectors rather than customizing an LSTM model per detector. Experiments based on traffic data collected from freeway I5-N in California are conducted to evaluate the performance of DistPre. The results demonstrate that DistPre provides time-efficient LSTM customization and accurate fine-grained traffic-speed prediction for large-scale transportation networks.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, Euro-par 2020 conferenc

Multi-locus Test Conditional on Confirmed Effects Leads to Increased Power in Genome-wide Association Studies

Complex diseases or phenotypes may involve multiple genetic variants and interactions between genetic, environmental and other factors. Current genome-wide association studies (GWAS) mostly used single-locus analysis and had identified genetic effects with multiple confirmations. Such confirmed single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects were likely to be true genetic effects and ignoring this information in testing new effects of the same phenotype results in decreased statistical power due to increased residual variance that has a component of the omitted effects. In this study, a multi-locus association test (MLT) was proposed for GWAS analysis conditional on SNPs with confirmed effects to improve statistical power. Analytical formulae for statistical power were derived and were verified by simulation for MLT accounting for confirmed SNPs and for single-locus test (SLT) without accounting for confirmed SNPs. Statistical power of the two methods was compared by case studies with simulated and the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) GWAS data. Results showed that the MLT method had increased statistical power over SLT. In the GWAS case study on four cholesterol phenotypes and serum metabolites, the MLT method improved statistical power by 5% to 38% depending on the number and effect sizes of the conditional SNPs. For the analysis of HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) and total cholesterol (TC) of the FHS data, the MLT method conditional on confirmed SNPs from GWAS catalog and NCBI had considerably more significant results than SLT

Optimizing the diagnostic power with gastric emptying scintigraphy at multiple time points

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gastric Emptying Scintigraphy (GES) at intervals over 4 hours after a standardized radio-labeled meal is commonly regarded as the gold standard for diagnosing gastroparesis. The objectives of this study were: 1) to investigate the best time point and the best combination of multiple time points for diagnosing gastroparesis with repeated GES measures, and 2) to contrast and cross-validate Fisher's Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), a rank based Distribution Free (DF) approach, and the Classification And Regression Tree (CART) model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 320 patients with GES measures at 1, 2, 3, and 4 hour (h) after a standard meal using a standardized method were retrospectively collected. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the rate of false classification through jackknife cross-validation were used for model comparison.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Due to strong correlation and an abnormality in data distribution, no substantial improvement in diagnostic power was found with the best linear combination by LDA approach even with data transformation. With DF method, the linear combination of 4-h and 3-h increased the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and decreased the number of false classifications (0.87; 15.0%) over individual time points (0.83, 0.82; 15.6%, 25.3%, for 4-h and 3-h, respectively) at a higher sensitivity level (sensitivity = 0.9). The CART model using 4 hourly GES measurements along with patient's age was the most accurate diagnostic tool (AUC = 0.88, false classification = 13.8%). Patients having a 4-h gastric retention value >10% were 5 times more likely to have gastroparesis (179/207 = 86.5%) than those with ≤10% (18/113 = 15.9%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>With a mixed group of patients either referred with suspected gastroparesis or investigated for other reasons, the CART model is more robust than the LDA and DF approaches, capable of accommodating covariate effects and can be generalized for cross institutional applications, but could be unstable if sample size is limited.</p

Neutralino versus axion/axino cold dark matter in the 19 parameter SUGRA model

We calculate the relic abundance of thermally produced neutralino cold dark matter in the general 19 parameter supergravity (SUGRA-19) model. A scan over GUT scale parameters reveals that models with a bino-like neutralino typically give rise to a dark matter density \Omega_{\tz_1}h^2\sim 1-1000, i.e. between 1 and 4 orders of magnitude higher than the measured value. Models with higgsino or wino cold dark matter can yield the correct relic density, but mainly for neutralino masses around 700-1300 GeV. Models with mixed bino-wino or bino-higgsino CDM, or models with dominant co-annihilation or A-resonance annihilation can yield the correct abundance, but such cases are extremely hard to generate using a general scan over GUT scale parameters; this is indicative of high fine-tuning of the relic abundance in these cases. Requiring that m_{\tz_1}\alt 500 GeV (as a rough naturalness requirement) gives rise to a minimal probably dip in parameter space at the measured CDM abundance. For comparison, we also scan over mSUGRA space with four free parameters. Finally, we investigate the Peccei-Quinn augmented MSSM with mixed axion/axino cold dark matter. In this case, the relic abundance agrees more naturally with the measured value. In light of our cumulative results, we conclude that future axion searches should probe much more broadly in axion mass, and deeper into the axion coupling.Comment: 23 pages including 17 .eps figure