Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks

In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two "traditional", rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments. © 2014 Reid et al

Prognostic significance of fascin expression in advanced colorectal cancer: an immunohistochemical study of colorectal adenomas and adenocarcinomas

BACKGROUND: Fascin is an actin bundling protein with roles in the formation of cell protrusions and motility of mesenchymal and neuronal cells. Fascin is normally low or absent from epithelia, but is upregulated in several epithelial neoplasms where it may contribute to an invasive phenotype. Here, we report on the prevalence and potential clinical significance of fascin expression in relation to the progression of colorectal adenocarcinoma and to tumor cell proliferation as measured by Ki67 index. METHODS: Conventional tissue sections of 107 colorectal adenomas and 35 adenocarcinomas were analyzed by immunohistochemistry for fascin and Ki67 expression. Fascin expression and Ki67 proliferation index were also investigated by use of a tissue microarray containing cores from a further 158 colorectal adenocarcinomas and 15 adenomas linked to a CCF, IRB-approved database with a mean of 38 months of clinical follow-up. Survival analysis was carried out by the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods. RESULTS: Fascin was not expressed by the normal colonic epithelium. In conventional sections, 16% of adenomas and 26% of adenocarcinomas showed fascin expression in greater than 10% of the tumor cells. In the clinically-annotated tumors, fascin immunoreactivity was more common in tumors located in the proximal colon (p = 0.009), but was not associated with age, gender, or TNM stage. Patients with stage III/IV adenocarcinomas (n = 62) with strong fascin immunoreactivity had a worse prognosis than patients with low or absent fascin, (3-year overall survival of 11% versus 43% for fascin-negative patients; p = 0.023). In adenomas, fascin and Ki67 tended to be inversely correlated at the cellular level; this trend was less apparent in adenocarcinomas. CONCLUSION: Fascin is upregulated in a proportion of adenomas, where its expression is often focal. Strong and diffuse expression was seen in a subset of advanced colorectal adenocarcinomas that correlated with shorter survival in stage III and IV patients. Fascin may have prognostic value as an early biomarker for more aggressive colorectal adenocarcinomas

Virology Experts in the Boundary Zone Between Science, Policy and the Public: A Biographical Analysis

This article aims to open up the biographical black box of three experts working in the boundary zone between science, policy and public debate. A biographical-narrative approach is used to analyse the roles played by the virologists Albert Osterhaus, Roel Coutinho and Jaap Goudsmit in policy and public debate. These figures were among the few leading virologists visibly active in the Netherlands during the revival of infectious diseases in the 1980s. Osterhaus and Coutinho in particular are still the key figures today, as demonstrated during the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1). This article studies the various political and communicative challenges and dilemmas encountered by these three virologists, and discusses the way in which, strategically or not, they handled those challenges and dilemmas during the various stages of the field’s recent history. Important in this respect is their pursuit of a public role that is both effective and credible. We will conclude with a reflection on the H1N1 pandemic, and the historical and biographical ties between emerging governance arrangements and the experts involved in the development of such arrangements

Biological versus chronological ovarian age:implications for assisted reproductive technology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Women have been able to delay childbearing since effective contraception became available in the 1960s. However, fertility decreases with increasing maternal age. A slow but steady decrease in fertility is observed in women aged between 30 and 35 years, which is followed by an accelerated decline among women aged over 35 years. A combination of delayed childbearing and reduced fecundity with increasing age has resulted in an increased number and proportion of women of greater than or equal to 35 years of age seeking assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Literature searches supplemented with the authors' knowledge.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Despite major advances in medical technology, there is currently no ART treatment strategy that can fully compensate for the natural decline in fertility with increasing female age. Although chronological age is the most important predictor of ovarian response to follicle-stimulating hormone, the rate of reproductive ageing and ovarian sensitivity to gonadotrophins varies considerably among individuals. Both environmental and genetic factors contribute to depletion of the ovarian oocyte pool and reduction in oocyte quality. Thus, biological and chronological ovarian age are not always equivalent. Furthermore, biological age is more important than chronological age in predicting the outcome of ART. As older patients present increasingly for ART treatment, it will become more important to critically assess prognosis, counsel appropriately and optimize treatment strategies. Several genetic markers and biomarkers (such as anti-Müllerian hormone and the antral follicle count) are emerging that can identify women with accelerated biological ovarian ageing. Potential strategies for improving ovarian response include the use of luteinizing hormone (LH) and growth hormone (GH). When endogenous LH levels are heavily suppressed by gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogues, LH supplementation may help to optimize treatment outcomes for women with biologically older ovaries. Exogenous GH may improve oocyte development and counteract the age-related decline of oocyte quality. The effects of GH may be mediated by insulin-like growth factor-I, which works synergistically with follicle-stimulating hormone on granulosa and theca cells.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients with biologically older ovaries may benefit from a tailored approach based on individual patient characteristics. Among the most promising adjuvant therapies for improving ART outcomes in women of advanced reproductive age are the administration of exogenous LH or GH.</p