Genetic and phenotypic spectrum associated with IFIH1 gain-of-function

IFIH1 gain‐of‐function has been reported as a cause of a type I interferonopathy encompassing a spectrum of autoinflammatory phenotypes including Aicardi–Goutières syndrome and Singleton Merten syndrome. Ascertaining patients through a European and North American collaboration, we set out to describe the molecular, clinical and interferon status of a cohort of individuals with pathogenic heterozygous mutations in IFIH1. We identified 74 individuals from 51 families segregating a total of 27 likely pathogenic mutations in IFIH1. Ten adult individuals, 13.5% of all mutation carriers, were clinically asymptomatic (with seven of these aged over 50 years). All mutations were associated with enhanced type I interferon signaling, including six variants (22%) which were predicted as benign according to multiple in silico pathogenicity programs. The identified mutations cluster close to the ATP binding region of the protein. These data confirm variable expression and nonpenetrance as important characteristics of the IFIH1 genotype, a consistent association with enhanced type I interferon signaling, and a common mutational mechanism involving increased RNA binding affinity or decreased efficiency of ATP hydrolysis and filament disassembly rate

Multivariate meta-analysis of individual participant data helped externally validate the performance and implementation of a prediction model

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to improve meta-analysis methods for summarizing a prediction model's performance when individual participant data are available from multiple studies for external validation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We suggest multivariate meta-analysis for jointly synthesizing calibration and discrimination performance, while accounting for their correlation. The approach estimates a prediction model's average performance, the heterogeneity in performance across populations, and the probability of "good" performance in new populations. This allows different implementation strategies (e.g., recalibration) to be compared. Application is made to a diagnostic model for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and a prognostic model for breast cancer mortality. RESULTS: In both examples, multivariate meta-analysis reveals that calibration performance is excellent on average but highly heterogeneous across populations unless the model's intercept (baseline hazard) is recalibrated. For the cancer model, the probability of "good" performance (defined by C statistic ≥0.7 and calibration slope between 0.9 and 1.1) in a new population was 0.67 with recalibration but 0.22 without recalibration. For the DVT model, even with recalibration, there was only a 0.03 probability of "good" performance. CONCLUSION: Multivariate meta-analysis can be used to externally validate a prediction model's calibration and discrimination performance across multiple populations and to evaluate different implementation strategies

SERPINA1 Z allele is associated with cystic fibrosis liver disease

International audienc

Individual participant data meta-analysis for external validation, recalibration, and updating of a flexible parametric prognostic model

Individual participant data (IPD) from multiple sources allows external validation of a prognostic model across multiple populations. Often this reveals poor calibration, potentially causing poor predictive performance in some populations. However, rather than discarding the model outright, it may be possible to modify the model to improve performance using recalibration techniques. We use IPD meta-analysis to identify the simplest method to achieve good model performance. We examine four options for recalibrating an existing time-to-event model across multiple populations: (i) shifting the baseline hazard by a constant, (ii) re-estimating the shape of the baseline hazard, (iii) adjusting the prognostic index as a whole, and (iv) adjusting individual predictor effects. For each strategy, IPD meta-analysis examines (heterogeneity in) model performance across populations. Additionally, the probability of achieving good performance in a new population can be calculated allowing ranking of recalibration methods. In an applied example, IPD meta-analysis reveals that the existing model had poor calibration in some populations, and large heterogeneity across populations. However, re-estimation of the intercept substantially improved the expected calibration in new populations, and reduced between-population heterogeneity. Comparing recalibration strategies showed that re-estimating both the magnitude and shape of the baseline hazard gave the highest predicted probability of good performance in a new population. In conclusion, IPD meta-analysis allows a prognostic model to be externally validated in multiple settings, and enables recalibration strategies to be compared and ranked to decide on the least aggressive recalibration strategy to achieve acceptable external model performance without discarding existing model information

Probabilistic Resource Analysis by Program Transformation

The aim of a probabilistic resource analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible resource usage for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present an automated multi- phase rewriting based method to analyze programs written in a subset of C. It generates a probability distribution of the resource usage as a possibly uncomputable expression and then transforms it into a closed form expression using over-approximations. We present the technique, outline the implementation and show results from experiments with the system