Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intensive anti-malaria campaigns targeting the <it>Anopheles </it>population have demonstrated substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Understanding the population dynamics of <it>Anopheles </it>mosquitoes throughout their whole lifecycle is important to assess the likely impact of vector control interventions alone and in combination as well as to aid the design of novel interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An ecological model of <it>Anopheles gambiae sensu lato </it>populations incorporating a rainfall-dependent carrying capacity and density-dependent regulation of mosquito larvae in breeding sites is developed. The model is fitted to adult mosquito catch and rainfall data from 8 villages in the Garki District of Nigeria (the 'Garki Project') using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and prior estimates of parameters derived from the literature. The model is used to compare the impact of vector control interventions directed against adult mosquito stages - long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS) - and directed against aquatic mosquito stages, alone and in combination on adult mosquito density.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A model in which density-dependent regulation occurs in the larval stages via a linear association between larval density and larval death rates provided a good fit to seasonal adult mosquito catches. The effective mosquito reproduction number in the presence of density-dependent regulation is dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns and peaks at the start of the rainy season. In addition to killing adult mosquitoes during the extrinsic incubation period, LLINs and IRS also result in less eggs being oviposited in breeding sites leading to further reductions in adult mosquito density. Combining interventions such as the application of larvicidal or pupacidal agents that target the aquatic stages of the mosquito lifecycle with LLINs or IRS can lead to substantial reductions in adult mosquito density.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Density-dependent regulation of anopheline larvae in breeding sites ensures robust, stable mosquito populations that can persist in the face of intensive vector control interventions. Selecting combinations of interventions that target different stages in the vector's lifecycle will result in maximum reductions in mosquito density.</p

Combinatorial microRNA target predictions

MicroRNAs are small noncoding RNAs that recognize and bind to partially complementary sites in the 3′ untranslated regions of target genes in animals and, by unknown mechanisms, regulate protein production of the target transcript1,2,3. Different combinations of microRNAs are expressed in different cell types and may coordinately regulate cell-specific target genes. Here, we present PicTar, a computational method for identifying common targets of microRNAs. Statistical tests using genome-wide alignments of eight vertebrate genomes, PicTar's ability to specifically recover published microRNA targets, and experimental validation of seven predicted targets suggest that PicTar has an excellent success rate in predicting targets for single microRNAs and for combinations of microRNAs. We find that vertebrate microRNAs target, on average, roughly 200 transcripts each. Furthermore, our results suggest widespread coordinate control executed by microRNAs. In particular, we experimentally validate common regulation of Mtpn by miR-375, miR-124 and let-7b and thus provide evidence for coordinate microRNA control in mammals