The Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START) to predict Emergency Department Disposition: A derivation and internal validation study using retrospective state-wide data from New South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Disposition decisions are critical to the functioning of Emergency Departments. The objectives of the present study were to derive and internally validate a prediction model for inpatient admission from the Emergency Department to assist with triage, patient flow and clinical decision making. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of State-wide Emergency Department data in New South Wales, Australia. Adult patients (age ≥ 16 years) were included if they presented to a Level five or six (tertiary level) Emergency Department in New South Wales, Australia between 2013 and 2014. The outcome of interest was in-patient admission from the Emergency Department. This included all admissions to short stay and medical assessment units and being transferred out to another hospital. Analyses were performed using logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using area under curve and derived risk scores were plotted to assess calibration. RESULTS: 1,721,294 presentations from twenty three Level five or six hospitals were analysed. Of these 49.38% were male and the mean (sd) age was 49.85 years (22.13). Level 6 hospitals accounted for 47.70% of cases and 40.74% of cases were classified as an in-patient admission based on their mode of separation. The final multivariable model including age, arrival by ambulance, triage category, previous admission and presenting problem had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.82). CONCLUSION: By deriving and internally validating a risk score model to predict the need for in-patient admission based on basic demographic and triage characteristics, patient flow in ED, clinical decision making and overall quality of care may be improved. Further studies are now required to establish clinical effectiveness of this risk score model

Comparing Pandemic to Seasonal Influenza Mortality: Moderate Impact Overall but High Mortality in Young Children

Background: We assessed the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic by comparing pandemic mortality to seasonal influenza mortality. However, reported pandemic deaths were laboratory-confirmed - and thus an underestimation - whereas seasonal influenza mortality is often more inclusively estimated. For a valid comparison, our study used the same statistical methodology and data types to estimate pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality. Methods and Findings: We used data on all-cause mortality (1999-2010, 100% coverage, 16.5 million Dutch population) and influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence (0.8% coverage). Data was aggregated by week and age category. Using generalized estimating equation regression models, we attributed mortality to influenza by associating mortality with ILI-incidence, while adjusting for annual shifts in association. We also adjusted for respiratory syncytial virus, hot/cold weather, other seasonal factors and autocorrelation. For the 2009 pandemic season, we estimated 612 (range 266-958) influenza-attributed deaths; for seasonal influen

The Genome of a Pathogenic Rhodococcus: Cooptive Virulence Underpinned by Key Gene Acquisitions

We report the genome of the facultative intracellular parasite Rhodococcus equi, the only animal pathogen within the biotechnologically important actinobacterial genus Rhodococcus. The 5.0-Mb R. equi 103S genome is significantly smaller than those of environmental rhodococci. This is due to genome expansion in nonpathogenic species, via a linear gain of paralogous genes and an accelerated genetic flux, rather than reductive evolution in R. equi. The 103S genome lacks the extensive catabolic and secondary metabolic complement of environmental rhodococci, and it displays unique adaptations for host colonization and competition in the short-chain fatty acid–rich intestine and manure of herbivores—two main R. equi reservoirs. Except for a few horizontally acquired (HGT) pathogenicity loci, including a cytoadhesive pilus determinant (rpl) and the virulence plasmid vap pathogenicity island (PAI) required for intramacrophage survival, most of the potential virulence-associated genes identified in R. equi are conserved in environmental rhodococci or have homologs in nonpathogenic Actinobacteria. This suggests a mechanism of virulence evolution based on the cooption of existing core actinobacterial traits, triggered by key host niche–adaptive HGT events. We tested this hypothesis by investigating R. equi virulence plasmid-chromosome crosstalk, by global transcription profiling and expression network analysis. Two chromosomal genes conserved in environmental rhodococci, encoding putative chorismate mutase and anthranilate synthase enzymes involved in aromatic amino acid biosynthesis, were strongly coregulated with vap PAI virulence genes and required for optimal proliferation in macrophages. The regulatory integration of chromosomal metabolic genes under the control of the HGT–acquired plasmid PAI is thus an important element in the cooptive virulence of R. equi

Neuropsychological function is related to irritable bowel syndrome in women with premenstrual syndrome and dysmenorrhea

Background There is increasing evidence demonstrating the co-occurrence of primary dysmenorrhea (PD), premenstrual syndrome (PMS), and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) in women. This study aimed to investigate whether women who have symptoms of IBS in addition to PD and PMS also report more severe or frequent menstruation-associated symptoms and psychological complications compared to women with PD and PMS alone. Methods The study group included 182 female University students aged 18–25 years. IBS was diagnosed using the Rome III criteria. The severity of PMS and PD was determined using a 10-point visual analog scale and PSST (Premenstrual Syndrome Screening Tool), respectively. Neuropsychological functions including cognitive function, depression score, anxiety score, stress, insomnia, daytime sleepiness, quality of life and personality were assessed using standard questionnaires. Results Of the 182 young females, 31 (17.0%) had IBS. Average days of bleeding during the menstrual cycle and mean pain severity on the PSST scale were significantly greater in the group with IBS compared to the non-IBS group (p < 0.01). The non-IBS individuals scored more favorably than the women with IBS with respect to severity of depression, insomnia, daytime sleepiness (p < 0.05). The PSST scores were significantly correlated with scores for depression (r = 0.29; p < 0.001), anxiety (r = 0.28; p < 0.001), stress (r = 0.32; p < 0.001), insomnia (r = 0.34; p < 0.001) and daytime sleepiness (r = 0.31; p < 0.001); while, they were negatively correlated with cognitive abilities (r = − 0.20; p = 0.006) and quality of life (r = − 0.42; p < 0.001). Linear regression analysis showed that the PSST scores were possibly significant factors in determining the scores for depression, anxiety, stress, quality of life, insomnia and daytime sleepiness (p < 0.05). Conclusion IBS is related to psychological comorbidities, in particular depression, sleep problems and menstrual-associated disorders. IBS may exacerbate the features of PMS which should be taken into account in the management of PMS

Poly(vinyl alcohol) rehydratable photonic crystal sensor materials

We developed a new photonic crystal hydrogel material based on the biocompatible polymer poly (vinyl alcohol) (PVA), which can be reversibly dehydrated and rehydrated, without the use of additional fillers, while retaining the diffraction and swelling properties of polymerized crystalline colloidal arrays (PCCA). This chemically modified PVA hydrogel photonic crystal efficiently diffracts light from the embedded crystalline colloidal array. This diffraction optically reports on volume changes occurring in the hydrogel by shifts in the wavelength of the diffracted light. We fabricated a pH sensor, which demonstrates a 350 nm wavelength shift between pH values of 3.3 and 8.5. We have also fabricated a Pb+2 sensor, in which pendant crown ether groups bind lead ions. Immobilization of the ions within the hydrogel increases the osmotic pressure due to the formation of a Donnan potential, swelling the hydrogel and shifting the observed diffraction in proportion to the concentration of bound ions. The sensing responses of rehydrated PVA pH and Pb+2 sensors were similar to that before drying. This reversibility of rehydration enables storage of these hydrogel photonic crystal sensors in the dry state, which makes them much more useful for commercial applications. © 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA

Emergency Department demand associated with seasonal influenza, 2010 through 2014, New South Wales, Australia

Introduction: Influenza’s impact on health and health care is underestimated by influenza diagnoses recorded in health-care databases. We aimed to estimate total and non-admitted influenza-attributable hospital Emergency Department (ED) demand in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Methods: We used generalized additive time series models to estimate the association between weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza infections and weekly rates of total and non-admitted respiratory, infection, cardiovascular and all-cause ED visits in NSW, Australia for the period 2010 through 2014. Visit categories were based on the coded ED diagnosis or the free-text presenting problem if no diagnosis was recorded. Results: The estimated all-age, annual influenza-attributable respiratory, infection, cardiovascular and all-cause visit rates/100 000 population/year were, respectively, 120.6 (99.9% confidence interval [CI] 102.3 to 138.8), 79.7 (99.9% CI: 70.6 to 88.9), 14.0 (99.9% CI: 6.8 to 21.3) and 309.0 (99.9% CI: 208.0 to 410.1). Among respiratory visits, influenza-attributable rates were highest among < 5-year-olds and ≥ 85-year-olds. For infection and all-cause visits, rates were highest among children; cardiovascular rates did not vary significantly by age. Annual rates varied substantially by year and age group, and statistically significant associations were absent in several years or age groups. Of the respiratory visits, 73.4% did not require admission. The non-admitted proportion was higher for the other clinical categories. Around 1 in 100 total visits and more than 1 in 10 respiratory or infection visits were associated with influenza. Discussion: Influenza is associated with a substantial and annually varying burden of hospital-attended illness in NSW

Photonic crystal borax competitive binding carbohydrate sensing motif

We developed a photonic crystal sensing method for diol containing species such as carbohydrates based on a poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) hydrogel containing an embedded crystalline colloidal array (CCA). The polymerized CCA (PCCA) diffracts visible light. We show that in the presence of borax the diffraction wavelength shifts as the concentration of glucose changes. The diffraction shifts result from the competitive binding of glucose to borate, which reduces the concentration of borate bound to the PVA diols. © 2009 The Royal Society of Chemistry

Polymerized crystalline colloidal array sensing of high glucose concentrations

We are developing photonic crystal glucose sensing materials to continuously monitor relatively high glucose concentrations, such as found in blood. We modified our synthetic fabrication methodologies in order to increase the glucose concentration range and to increase the reproducibility of our PCCA fabrication. We have also advanced our understanding of the sensing response by developing a mechanical method to independently determine the hydrogel cross-link density. Our investigation of the sensing mechanism indicates that glucose binding depends mainly on the boronic acid concentrations and affinities. We determined the binding constant of 2-fluoro-5-aminophenyl boronic acid for glucose under physiological conditions. We have examined the dependence of glucose sensing upon interferences by other species that ligand to boronic acids, such as lactate and human serum albumin. We examined the stability of our sensors over a period of weeks at room temperature and demonstrated that we could further stabilize our sensing materials by reversibly dehydrating them for storage. © 2009 American Chemical Society

Statewide retrospective study of low acuity emergency presentations in New South Wales, Australia: Who, what, where and why?

Objective: The present study aims to use a statewide population-based registry to assess the prevalence of low acuity emergency department (ED) presentations, describe the trend in presentation rates and to determine whether they were associated with various presentation characteristics such as the type of hospital as well as clinical and demographic variables. Design and setting: This was a retrospective analysis of a population-based registry of ED presentations in New South Wales (NSW). Generalised estimating equations with log links were used to determine factors associated with low acuity presentations to account for repeat presentations and the possibility of clustering of outcomes. Participants: Patients were included in this analysis if they presented to an ED between January 2010 and December 2014. The outcomes of interest were low acuity presentation, defined as those who self-presented (were not transported by ambulance), were assigned a triage category of 4 or 5 (semiurgent or non-urgent) and discharged back to usual residence from ED. Results: There were 10.7 million ED presentations analysed. Of these, 45% were classified as a low acuity presentation. There was no discernible increase in the rate of low acuity presentations across NSW between 2010 and 2014. The strongest predictors of low acuity ED presentation were age <40 years of age (OR 1.77); injury or musculoskeletal administrative and non-urgent procedures (OR 2.96); ear, nose and throat, eye or oral (OR 5.53); skin or allergy-type presenting problems (OR 2.84). Conclusions: Low acuity ED presentations comprise almost half of all ED presentations. Alternative emergency models of care may help meet the needs of these patients

The Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START) to predict Emergency Department Disposition: A derivation and internal validation study using retrospective state-wide data from New South Wales, Australia

Background: Disposition decisions are critical to the functioning of Emergency Departments. The objectives of the present study were to derive and internally validate a prediction model for inpatient admission from the Emergency Department to assist with triage, patient flow and clinical decision making. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of State-wide Emergency Department data in New South Wales, Australia. Adult patients (age ≥ 16 years) were included if they presented to a Level five or six (tertiary level) Emergency Department in New South Wales, Australia between 2013 and 2014. The outcome of interest was in-patient admission from the Emergency Department. This included all admissions to short stay and medical assessment units and being transferred out to another hospital. Analyses were performed using logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using area under curve and derived risk scores were plotted to assess calibration. Results: 1,721,294 presentations from twenty three Level five or six hospitals were analysed. Of these 49.38% were male and the mean (sd) age was 49.85 years (22.13). Level 6 hospitals accounted for 47.70% of cases and 40.74% of cases were classified as an in-patient admission based on their mode of separation. The final multivariable model including age, arrival by ambulance, triage category, previous admission and presenting problem had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.82). Conclusion: By deriving and internally validating a risk score model to predict the need for in-patient admission based on basic demographic and triage characteristics, patient flow in ED, clinical decision making and overall quality of care may be improved. Further studies are now required to establish clinical effectiveness of this risk score model