Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960

BACKGROUND: Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime

Optimal strategies for a game on amenable semigroups

The semigroup game is a two-person zero-sum game defined on a semigroup S as follows: Players 1 and 2 choose elements x and y in S, respectively, and player 1 receives a payoff f(xy) defined by a function f from S to [-1,1]. If the semigroup is amenable in the sense of Day and von Neumann, one can extend the set of classical strategies, namely countably additive probability measures on S, to include some finitely additive measures in a natural way. This extended game has a value and the players have optimal strategies. This theorem extends previous results for the multiplication game on a compact group or on the positive integers with a specific payoff. We also prove that the procedure of extending the set of allowed strategies preserves classical solutions: if a semigroup game has a classical solution, this solution solves also the extended game.Comment: 17 pages. To appear in International Journal of Game Theor

Typhoidal Salmonella human challenge studies: ethical and practical challenges and considerations for low-resource settings

Typhoidal Salmonella is a major global problem affecting more than 12 million people annually. Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) in high-resource settings have had an important role in accelerating the development of conjugate vaccines against Salmonella Typhi. The typhoidal Salmonella model has an established safety profile in over 2000 volunteers in high-income settings, and trial protocols, with modification, could be readily transferred to new study sites. To date, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM has not been conducted in a low-resource setting, although it is being considered. Our article describes the challenges posed by a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in the high-resource setting of Oxford and explores considerations for an endemic setting. Development of CHIMs in endemic settings is scientifically justifiable as it remains unclear whether findings from challenge studies performed in high-resource non-endemic settings can be extrapolated to endemic settings, where the burden of invasive Salmonella is highest. Volunteers are likely to differ across a range of important variables such as previous Salmonella exposure, diet, intestinal microbiota, and genetic profile. CHIMs in endemic settings arguably are ethically justifiable as affected communities are more likely to gain benefit from the study. Local training and research capacity may be bolstered. Safety was of primary importance in the Oxford model. Risk of harm to the individual was mitigated by careful inclusion and exclusion criteria; close monitoring with online diary and daily visits; 24/7 on-call staffing; and access to appropriate hospital facilities with capacity for in-patient admission. Risk of harm to the community was mitigated by exclusion of participants with contact with vulnerable persons; stringent hygiene and sanitation precautions; and demonstration of clearance of Salmonella infection from stool following antibiotic treatment. Safety measures should be more stringent in settings where health systems, transport networks, and sanitation are less robust. We compare the following issues between high- and low-resource settings: scientific justification, risk of harm to the individual and community, benefits to the individual and community, participant understanding, compensation, and regulatory requirements. We conclude that, with careful consideration of country-specific ethical and practical issues, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in an endemic setting is possible

Idempotent convexity and algebras for the capacity monad and its submonads

Idempotent analogues of convexity are introduced. It is proved that the category of algebras for the capacity monad in the category of compacta is isomorphic to the category of $(\max,\min)$-idempotent biconvex compacta and their biaffine maps. It is also shown that the category of algebras for the monad of sup-measures ($(\max,\min)$-idempotent measures) is isomorphic to the category of $(\max,\min)$-idempotent convex compacta and their affine maps

Modifying one’s hand’s trajectory when a moving target’s orientation changes

The path that the hand takes to intercept an elongated moving target depends on the target’s orientation. How quickly do people respond to changes in the moving target’s orientation? In the present study, participants were asked to intercept moving targets that sometimes abruptly changed orientation shortly after they started moving. It took the participants slightly more than 150 ms to adjust their hands’ paths to a change in target orientation. This is about 50 ms longer than it took them to respond to a 5-mm jump in the moving target’s position. It is only slightly shorter than it took them to initiate the movement. We propose that responses to changes in visually perceived orientation are not exceptionally fast, because there is no relationship between target orientation and direction of hand movement that is sufficiently general in everyday life for one to risk making an inappropriate response in order to respond faster

Confronting Standard Models of Proto–Planetary Disks With New Mid–Infrared Sizes from the Keck Interferometer

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Astronomical Society via the DOI in this record.The accepted author manuscript is in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/21611We present near- and mid-infrared (MIR) interferometric observations made with the Keck Interferometer Nuller and near-contemporaneous spectro-photometry from the infrared telescope facilities (IRTFs) of 11 well-known young stellar objects, several of which were observed for the first time in these spectral and spatial resolution regimes. With au-level spatial resolution, we first establish characteristic sizes of the infrared emission using a simple geometrical model consisting of a hot inner rim and MIR disk emission. We find a high degree of correlation between the stellar luminosity and the MIR disk sizes after using near-infrared data to remove the contribution from the inner rim. We then use a semi-analytical physical model to also find that the very widely used "star + inner dust rim + flared disk" class of models strongly fails to reproduce the spectral energy distribution (SED) and spatially resolved MIR data simultaneously; specifically a more compact source of MIR emission is required than results from the standard flared disk model. We explore the viability of a modification to the model whereby a second dust rim containing smaller dust grains is added, and find that the 2-rim model leads to significantly improved fits in most cases. This complexity is largely missed when carrying out SED modeling alone, although detailed silicate feature fitting by McClure et al. recently came to a similar conclusion. As has been suggested recently by Menu et al., the difficulty in predicting MIR sizes from the SED alone might hint at "transition disk"-like gaps in the inner au; however, the relatively high correlation found in our MIR disk size versus stellar luminosity relation favors layered disk morphologies and points to missing disk model ingredients instead.M.S. was supported by NASA ADAP grant NNX09AC73G. R.W.R. was supported by the IR&D program of The Aerospace Corporation

Comparison of the CDC Backpack aspirator and the Prokopack aspirator for sampling indoor- and outdoor-resting mosquitoes in southern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Resting mosquitoes can easily be collected using an aspirating device. The most commonly used mechanical aspirator is the CDC Backpack aspirator. Recently, a simple, and low-cost aspirator called the Prokopack has been devised and proved to have comparable performance. The following study evaluates the Prokopack aspirator compared to the CDC backpack aspirator when sampling resting mosquitoes in rural Tanzania.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud Mosquitoes were sampled in- and outdoors of 48 typical rural African households using both aspirators. The aspirators were rotated between collectors and households in a randomized, Latin Square design. Outdoor collections were performed using artificial resting places (large barrel and car tyre), underneath the outdoor kitchen (kibanda) roof and from a drop-net. Data were analysed with generalized linear models.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud The number of mosquitoes collected using the CDC Backpack and the Prokopack aspirator were not significantly different both in- and outdoors (indoors p = 0.735; large barrel p = 0.867; car tyre p = 0.418; kibanda p = 0.519). The Prokopack was superior for sampling of drop-nets due to its smaller size. The number mosquitoes collected per technician was more consistent when using the Prokopack aspirator. The Prokopack was more user-friendly: technicians preferred using the it over the CDC backpack aspirator as it weighs considerably less, retains its charge for longer and is easier to manoeuvre.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud \ud The Prokopack proved in the field to be more advantageous than the CDC Backpack aspirator. It can be self assembled using simple, low-cost and easily attainable materials. This device is a useful tool for researchers or vector-control surveillance programs operating in rural Africa, as it is far simpler and quicker than traditional means of sampling resting mosquitoes. Further longitudinal evaluations of the Prokopack aspirator versus the gold standard pyrethrum spray catch for indoor resting catches are recommended

Denitrification and nitrous oxide emissions from riparian forests soils exposed to prolonged nitrogen runoff

Compared to upland forests, riparian forest soils have greater potential to remove nitrate (NO3) from agricultural run-off through denitrification. It is unclear, however, whether prolonged exposure of riparian soils to nitrogen (N) loading will affect the rate of denitrification and its end products. This research assesses the rate of denitrification and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from riparian forest soils exposed to prolonged nutrient run-off from plant nurseries and compares these to similar forest soils not exposed to nutrient run-off. Nursery run-off also contains high levels of phosphate (PO4). Since there are conflicting reports on the impact of PO4 on the activity of denitrifying microbes, the impact of PO4 on such activity was also investigated. Bulk and intact soil cores were collected from N-exposed and non-exposed forests to determine denitrification and N2O emission rates, whereas denitrification potential was determined using soil slurries. Compared to the non-amended treatment, denitrification rate increased 2.7- and 3.4-fold when soil cores collected from both N-exposed and non-exposed sites were amended with 30 and 60 μg NO3-N g-1 soil, respectively. Net N2O emissions were 1.5 and 1.7 times higher from the N-exposed sites compared to the non-exposed sites at 30 and 60 μg NO3-N g-1 soil amendment rates, respectively. Similarly, denitrification potential increased 17 times in response to addition of 15 μg NO3-N g-1 in soil slurries. The addition of PO4 (5 μg PO4–P g-1) to soil slurries and intact cores did not affect denitrification rates. These observations suggest that prolonged N loading did not affect the denitrification potential of the riparian forest soils; however, it did result in higher N2O emissions compared to emission rates from non-exposed forests