Quantifying the impact of community quarantine on SARS transmission in Ontario: estimation of secondary case count difference and number needed to quarantine

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Community quarantine is controversial, and the decision to use and prepare for it should be informed by specific quantitative evidence of benefit. Case-study reports on 2002-2004 SARS outbreaks have discussed the role of quarantine in the community in transmission. However, this literature has not yielded quantitative estimates of the reduction in secondary cases attributable to quarantine as would be seen in other areas of health policy and cost-effectiveness analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from the 2003 Ontario, Canada, SARS outbreak, two novel expressions for the impact of quarantine are presented. Secondary Case Count Difference (SCCD) reflects reduction in the average number of transmissions arising from a SARS case in quarantine, relative to not in quarantine, at onset of symptoms. SCCD was estimated using Poisson and negative binomial regression models (with identity link function) comparing the number of secondary cases to each index case for quarantine relative to non-quarantined index cases. The inverse of this statistic is proposed as the number needed to quarantine (NNQ) to prevent one additional secondary transmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our estimated SCCD was 0.133 fewer secondary cases per quarantined versus non-quarantined index case; and a NNQ of 7.5 exposed individuals to be placed in community quarantine to prevent one additional case of transmission in the community. This analysis suggests quarantine can be an effective preventive measure, although these estimates lack statistical precision.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Relative to other health policy areas, literature on quarantine tends to lack in quantitative expressions of effectiveness, or agreement on how best to report differences in outcomes attributable to control measure. We hope to further this discussion through presentation of means to calculate and express the impact of population control measures. The study of quarantine effectiveness presents several methodological and statistical challenges. Further research and discussion are needed to understand the costs and benefits of enacting quarantine, and this includes a discussion of how quantitative benefit should be communicated to decision-makers and the public, and evaluated.</p

Genome-Wide Association Studies in Glioma.

Since the first reports in 2009, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful in identifying germline variants associated with glioma susceptibility. In this review, we describe a chronological history of glioma GWAS, culminating in the most recent study comprising 12,496 cases and 18,190 controls. We additionally summarize associations at the 27 glioma-risk SNPs that have been reported so far. Future efforts are likely to be principally focused on assessing association of germline-risk SNPs with particular molecular subgroups of glioma, as well as investigating the functional basis of the risk loci in tumor formation. These ongoing studies will be important to maximize the impact of research into glioma susceptibility, both in terms of insight into tumor etiology as well as opportunities for clinical translation. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(4); 418-28. ©2018 AACRSee all articles in this CEBP Focus section, "Genome-Wide Association Studies in Cancer.

An infectious aetiology for childhood brain tumours? Evidence from space–time clustering and seasonality analyses

To investigate whether infections or other environmental exposures may be involved in the aetiology of childhood central nervous system tumours, we have analysed for space–time clustering and seasonality using population-based data from the North West of England for the period 1954 to 1998. Knox tests for space–time interactions between cases were applied with fixed thresholds of close in space, <5 km, and close in time, <1 year apart. Addresses at birth and diagnosis were used. Tests were repeated replacing geographical distance with distance to the Nth nearest neighbour. N was chosen such that the mean distance was 5 km. Data were also examined by a second order procedure based on K-functions. Tests for heterogeneity and Edwards' test for sinusoidal variation were applied to examine changes of incidence with month of birth or diagnosis. There was strong evidence of space–time clustering, particularly involving cases of astrocytoma and ependymoma. Analyses of seasonal variation showed excesses of cases born in the late Autumn or Winter. Results are consistent with a role for infections in a proportion of cases from these diagnostic groups. Further studies are needed to identify putative infectious agents

Horizontal DNA transfer mechanisms of bacteria as weapons of intragenomic conflict

Horizontal DNA transfer (HDT) is a pervasive mechanism of diversification in many microbial species, but its primary evolutionary role remains controversial. Much recent research has emphasised the adaptive benefit of acquiring novel DNA, but here we argue instead that intragenomic conflict provides a coherent framework for understanding the evolutionary origins of HDT. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model of a clonally descended bacterial population undergoing HDT through transmission of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and genetic transformation. Including the known bias of transformation toward the acquisition of shorter alleles into the model suggested it could be an effective means of counteracting the spread of MGEs. Both constitutive and transient competence for transformation were found to provide an effective defence against parasitic MGEs; transient competence could also be effective at permitting the selective spread of MGEs conferring a benefit on their host bacterium. The coordination of transient competence with cell-cell killing, observed in multiple species, was found to result in synergistic blocking of MGE transmission through releasing genomic DNA for homologous recombination while simultaneously reducing horizontal MGE spread by lowering the local cell density. To evaluate the feasibility of the functions suggested by the modelling analysis, we analysed genomic data from longitudinal sampling of individuals carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae. This revealed the frequent within-host coexistence of clonally descended cells that differed in their MGE infection status, a necessary condition for the proposed mechanism to operate. Additionally, we found multiple examples of MGEs inhibiting transformation through integrative disruption of genes encoding the competence machinery across many species, providing evidence of an ongoing "arms race." Reduced rates of transformation have also been observed in cells infected by MGEs that reduce the concentration of extracellular DNA through secretion of DNases. Simulations predicted that either mechanism of limiting transformation would benefit individual MGEs, but also that this tactic's effectiveness was limited by competition with other MGEs coinfecting the same cell. A further observed behaviour we hypothesised to reduce elimination by transformation was MGE activation when cells become competent. Our model predicted that this response was effective at counteracting transformation independently of competing MGEs. Therefore, this framework is able to explain both common properties of MGEs, and the seemingly paradoxical bacterial behaviours of transformation and cell-cell killing within clonally related populations, as the consequences of intragenomic conflict between self-replicating chromosomes and parasitic MGEs. The antagonistic nature of the different mechanisms of HDT over short timescales means their contribution to bacterial evolution is likely to be substantially greater than previously appreciated

Residential Radon and Brain Tumour Incidence in a Danish Cohort

BACKGROUND: Increased brain tumour incidence over recent decades may reflect improved diagnostic methods and clinical practice, but remain unexplained. Although estimated doses are low a relationship between radon and brain tumours may exist. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the long-term effect of exposure to residential radon on the risk of primary brain tumour in a prospective Danish cohort. METHODS: During 1993-1997 we recruited 57,053 persons. We followed each cohort member for cancer occurrence from enrolment until 31 December 2009, identifying 121 primary brain tumour cases. We traced residential addresses from 1 January 1971 until 31 December 2009 and calculated radon concentrations at each address using information from central databases regarding geology and house construction. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate incidence rate-ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the risk of primary brain tumours associated with residential radon exposure with adjustment for age, sex, occupation, fruit and vegetable consumption and traffic-related air pollution. Effect modification by air pollution was assessed. RESULTS: Median estimated radon was 40.5 Bq/m(3). The adjusted IRR for primary brain tumour associated with each 100 Bq/m(3) increment in average residential radon levels was 1.96 (95% CI: 1.07; 3.58) and this was exposure-dependently higher over the four radon exposure quartiles. This association was not modified by air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: We found significant associations and exposure-response patterns between long-term residential radon exposure radon in a general population and risk of primary brain tumours, adding new knowledge to this field. This finding could be chance and needs to be challenged in future studies

Familial risks in nervous system tumours: joint Nordic study

Background:Familial nervous system cancers are rare and limited data on familial aspects are available particularly on site-specific tumours.Methods:Data from five Nordic countries were used to analyse familial risks of nervous system tumours. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for offspring of affected relatives compared with offspring of non-affected relatives.Results:The total number of patients with nervous system tumour was 63 307, of whom 32 347 belonged to the offspring generation. Of 851 familial patients (2.6%) in the offspring generation, 42 (4.7%) belonged to the families of a parent and at least two siblings affected. The SIR of brain tumours was 1.7 in offspring of affected parents; it was 2.0 in siblings and 9.4 in families with a parent and sibling affected. For spinal tumours, the SIRs were much higher for offspring of early onset tumours, 14.0 for offspring of affected parents and 22.7 for siblings. The SIRs for peripheral nerve tumours were 16.3 in offspring of affected parents, 27.7 in siblings and 943.9 in multiplex families.Conclusion:The results of this population-based study on medically diagnosed tumours show site-, proband- and age-specific risks for familial tumours, with implications for clinical genetic counselling and identification of the underlying genes.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 25 May 2010; doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6605708 www.bjcancer.com

Assessing risk of breast cancer in an ethnically South-East Asia population (results of a multiple ethnic groups study)

10.1186/1471-2407-12-529BMC Cancer12-BCMA

Lack of association between modifiable exposures and glioma risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Background The etiological basis of glioma is poorly understood. We have used genetic markers in a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to examine if lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and inflammatory factors influence the risk of glioma. This methodology reduces bias from confounding and is not affected by reverse causation.Methods We identified genetic instruments for 37 potentially modifiable risk factors and evaluated their association with glioma risk using data from a genome-wide association study of 12 488 glioma patients and 18 169 controls. We used the estimated odds ratio of glioma associated with each of the genetically defined traits to infer evidence for a causal relationship with the following exposures:Lifestyle and dietary factors-height, plasma insulin-like growth factor 1, blood carnitine, blood methionine, blood selenium, blood zinc, circulating adiponectin, circulating carotenoids, iron status, serum calcium, vitamins (A1, B12, B6, E, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D), fatty acid levels (monounsaturated, omega-3, and omega-6) and circulating fetuin-A;Cardiometabolic factors-birth weight, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, total triglycerides, basal metabolic rate, body fat percentage, body mass index, fasting glucose, fasting proinsulin, glycated hemoglobin levels, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio; andInflammatory factors- C-reactive protein, plasma interleukin-6 receptor subunit alpha and serum immunoglobulin E.Results After correction for the testing of multiple potential risk factors and excluding associations driven by one single nucleotide polymorphism, no significant association with glioma risk was observed (ie, PCorrected > 0.05).Conclusions This study did not provide evidence supporting any of the 37 factors examined as having a significant influence on glioma risk