Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data.</p> <p>Main findings</p> <p>First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.</p

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children &lt;18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p&lt;0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p&lt;0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p&lt;0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer

FITOTERAPIA

Extracts of leaves, cones and twig and stem bark of A. nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani (collected from Turkey in 1991) exhibited activity against Art salina, Mycobacterium smegmatis, Bacillus subtilis, Sarcina lutea and Staph aureus

New phenolic glycosides from the stems and leaves of Casearia multinervosa

Four phenolic glycosides (1-4), including two new ones (3 and 4), have been isolated from the stems of Casearia multinervosa and identified as arbutin (1), 4-O-E-caffeoylarbutin (2), 4-O-E-coumaroylarbutin (3) and 4-O-E-feruloylarbutin (4), respectively. In addition, the two known phenolic glycosides (1 and 2) were also isolated from the leaves. Structures were elucidated on the basis of spectroscopic evidence. Compounds 1-4 were tested for cytotoxicity against the P388 mouse lympholytic cell line by an ATP Lite-M assay method and showed mild to moderate activity

Ten-year trends in prevalence of asthma in adults in southern Brazil: comparison of two population-based studies Dez anos de evolução da prevalência de asma em adultos, no Sul do Brasil: comparação de dois estudos de base populacional

There are discrepancies in the literature regarding time trends in the occurrence of asthma in adults. This study compared asthma prevalence in two cross-sectional studies with a ten-year interval in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The first, in 2000, included 1,968 individuals, and the second, in 2010, 2,466 adults (20-69 years). Prevalence of wheezing and shortness of breath in the prior 12 months remained the same after ten years (6% and 6.1%, respectively). In both studies, asthma was more frequent among females and people with low family income. Physician-diagnosed asthma increased by 35.6%, and lifetime incidence of asthma, by 32.2%. There was no percentage change in current asthma symptoms or current asthma. Local socioeconomic improvement between the two studies was consistent with the increase in medical diagnosis, but did not reflect better management of asthma symptoms, underlining the need for investment regarding other determinants of the disease.<br>Há divergências na literatura quanto às tendências temporais da ocorrência de asma em adultos. Este estudo objetivou comparar a prevalência de asma em dois levantamentos realizados com um intervalo de dez anos, em Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Os dois estudos foram transversais, de base populacional e com estratégias semelhantes de amostragem. O primeiro, feito em 2000, incluiu 1.968 indivíduos, e o segundo, em 2010, 2.466 adultos (20-69 anos). A prevalência de chiado e falta de ar, nos últimos 12 meses, manteve-se estável após dez anos (6% e 6,1%, respectivamente). Em ambos os estudos, a prevalência de asma foi maior em mulheres e pessoas com renda familiar baixa. Houve aumento de 35,6% no diagnóstico médico de asma e de 32,2% na prevalência de asma na vida. Não houve variação percentual para sintomas atuais de asma e asma atual. A melhora socioeconômica local, observada entre os estudos, foi coerente com o aumento do diagnóstico medico, porém não refletiu um melhor manejo dos sintomas da asma, o que reforça a necessidade de investimentos em outros determinantes da doença