Procurement auctions with interdependent values and affiliated signals

Procurement auctions that assume independent private values (IPV) provide a benchmark for analysis that is readily demonstrated but often unrealistic. Firms who compete for exclusive selling rights normally derive outputs from a highly similar set of inputs which, in turn, allows them to obtain some knowledge on how others would price their goods. In this paper, we incorporate this assumption by showing how affiliated signals and interdependent values can possibly affect the expected quantities sold and selling prices of some endogenous-quantity procurement auction formats. The resulting equilibrium bidding strategies no longer give credence to the typical equivalence result which holds under IPV. In this environment, the second-price auction yields both higher expected prices and lower expected quantities than the first-price auction. This result is consistent with similar studies showing suboptimality of auction mechanisms that allow for winning bids of less-than-the-highest willingness to pay, when values are not fully independent

Elektromagnetische velden in arbeidssituaties

NB Nederlandstalige versie verschenen onder nummer 610015001N De EU heeft richtlijn 2004/40/EG uitgevaardigd om de werknemer te beschermen tegen gezondheidsrisico's door blootstelling aan elektromagnetische velden op het werk. Deze richtlijn moet uiterlijk 30 april 2008 zijn omgezet in nationale wetgeving. Ter voorbereiding hiervan heeft het RIVM in opdracht van het Ministerie van SZW de blootstelling in Nederlandse arbeidssituaties geinventariseerd en geanalyseerd. Het doel van dit rapport is de werkgevers een handreiking te geven om vast te stellen of aan de eisen uit de richtlijn wordt voldaan en om de risico-inventarisatie en -evaluatie (RI&E) voor elektromagnetische velden op te stellen. Totdat er geharmoniseerde Europese normen van het Europees Comiti voor elektrotechnische normalisatie (CENELEC) beschikbaar zijn voor alle situaties die moeten worden beoordeeld, gemeten en berekend, mag dit rapport als richtsnoer gebruikt worden. Gebruik van dit rapport is dus geen verplichting. Voor de meeste werkgevers is het voldoende om de eerste twee hoofdstukken door te nemen. De volgende drie hoofdstukken bevatten voor een aantal arbeidssituaties informatie over de blootstelling, de rekenregels waarmee de situatie kan worden ingeschat en de mogelijke beheersmaatregelen. Het laatste hoofdstuk geeft een overzicht van de kosten die met invoering van de richtlijn samenhangen. Om te kunnen toetsen of de blootstelling onder de limieten van de richtlijn blijft, moeten CENELEC-normen worden gebruikt, voor zover ze bestaan. Deze normen zijn zonder specialistische kennis niet eenvoudig toe te passen. Ook hoeft niet alle apparatuur even uitgebreid beoordeeld te worden of zijn even zware maatregelen nodig. Om de beoordeling te vergemakkelijken geeft dit rapport een beoordelingsschema en tabellen met een indeling van alle relevante werkomgevingen in drie categorieen. Voor iedere categorie geldt een ander beoordelingstraject.The EU has issued Directive 2004/40/EC on the protection of workers from health and safety risks arising from exposure to electromagnetic fields in the workplace. This directive must be implemented in national legislation no later than 30 April 2008. To prepare for implementation, RIVM has, on commission of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, investigated and analysed the exposure in Dutch working environments. The purpose of this report is to provide assistance to employers to assess whether compliance is met and to carry out the inventory and evaluation of risks (RI&E) due to electromagnetic fields. Until harmonised European standards from CENELEC cover all relevant assessment, measurement and calculation situations, this report may serve as a guide. It is not mandatory to use this report. It will be sufficient for most of the employers to confine themselves to the first two chapters. Subsequent chapters deal with the exposure found in several working environments and provide guidelines for assessing risks and possible measures in these working environments. Costs for implementing the directive are discussed in the last chapter. CENELEC standards, if available, are mandatory for assessing whether exposure occurs below the limits in the directive. However, these standards are not easy to use without specialist knowledge. Furthermore, not all equipment needs to be assessed to the same extent nor are the same measures needed. A flow chart and tables of relevant working environments, classified into three categories, are provided to facilitate the assessment. Each category has its own assessment path.SZ

Adaptive sequential Monte Carlo for multiple changepoint analysis

Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The method is intuitively simple: new changepoints for the latest window of data are proposed by conditioning only on data observed since the most recent estimated changepoint, as these observations carry most of the information about the current state of the process. The proposed method shows improved performance over the current state of the art. Another advantage of the proposed algorithm is that it can be made adaptive, varying the number of particles according to the apparent local complexity of the target changepoint probability distribution. This saves valuable computing time when changes in the changepoint distribution are negligible, and enables re-balancing of the importance weights of existing particles when a significant change in the target distribution is encountered. The plain and adaptive versions of the method are illustrated using the canonical continuous time changepoint problem of inferring the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, although the method is generally applicable to any changepoint problem. Performance is demonstrated using both conjugate and non-conjugate Bayesian models for the intensity. Appendices to the article are available online, illustrating the method on other models and applications

Large-scale clustering amongst <i>Fermi</i> blazars; evidence for axis alignments?

We find evidence for large-scale clustering amongst Fermi-selected BL Lac objects but not amongst Fermi-selected flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs). Using two-point correlation functions, we have investigated the clustering properties of different classes of objects from the Fermi–LAT(Large Area Telescope) 4FGL catalogue. We wanted to test the idea based on optical polarization observations that there might be large volumes of space in which AGN axes are aligned. To do this, we needed a clean sample of blazars as these are objects with their jet axes pointing towards the observer and Fermi sources provide such a sample. We find that high latitude Fermi sources taken as a whole show a significant clustering signal on scales up to 30°. To investigate if all blazars behave in the same way we used he machine learning classifications from the literature, which are based only on gamma-ray information, to separate BL Lac-like objects from FSRQ-like objects. A possible explanation for the clustering signal we find amongst the BL Lac-like objects is that there are indeed large volumes of space in which AGN axes are aligned. This signal might be washed out in FSRQs since they occupy a much larger volume of space. Thus, our results support the idea that large scale polarization alignments could originate from coherent alignments of AGN axes. We speculate that these axis alignments may be related to the well-known intrinsic alignments of galaxy optical position angles

Uncovering the neuroprotective mechanisms of curcumin on transthyretin amyloidosis

Transthyretin (TTR) amyloidoses (ATTR amyloidosis) are diseases associated with transthyretin (TTR) misfolding, aggregation and extracellular deposition in tissues as amyloid. Clinical manifestations of the disease are variable and include mainly polyneuropathy and/or cardiomyopathy. The reasons why TTR forms aggregates and amyloid are related with amino acid substitutions in the protein due to mutations, or with environmental alterations associated with aging, that make the protein more unstable and prone to aggregation. According to this model, several therapeutic approaches have been proposed for the diseases that range from stabilization of TTR, using chemical chaperones, to clearance of the aggregated protein deposited in tissues in the form of oligomers or small aggregates, by the action of disruptors or by activation of the immune system. Interestingly, different studies revealed that curcumin presents anti-amyloid properties, targeting multiple steps in the ATTR amyloidogenic cascade. The effects of curcumin on ATTR amyloidosis will be reviewed and discussed in the current work in order to contribute to knowledge of the molecular mechanisms involved in TTR amyloidosis and propose more efficient drugs for therapy.This research was funded by the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, grant number Norte-01-0145-FEDER-000008—Porto Neurosciences and Neurologic Disease Research Initiative at I3S. Nelson Ferreira was a recipient of a Postdoctoral Fellowship R171-2014-591 from Lundbeck foundation and by Lundbeck Foundation grant R248-2016-2518 for Danish Research Institute of Translational Neuroscience—DANDRITE, Nordic-EMBL Partnership for Molecular Medicine, Aarhus University, Denmark

Changepoint detection on a graph of time series

When analysing multiple time series that may be subject to changepoints, it is sometimes possible to specify a priori, by means of a graph, which pairs of time series are likely to be impacted by simultaneous changepoints. This article proposes an informative prior for changepoints which encodes the information contained in the graph, inducing a changepoint model for multiple time series that borrows strength across clusters of connected time series to detect weak signals for synchronous changepoints. The graphical model for changepoints is further extended to allow dependence between nearby but not necessarily synchronous changepoints across neighbouring time series in the graph. A novel reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm making use of auxiliary variables is proposed to sample from the graphical changepoint model. The merit of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a changepoint analysis of computer network authentication logs from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), demonstrating an improvement at detecting weak signals for network intrusions across users linked by network connectivity, whilst limiting the number of false alerts