A DETAILED PHOTOMETRIC AND SPECTROSCOPIC STUDY OF THE 2011 OUTBURST OF THE RECURRENT NOVA T Pyxidis FROM 0.8 TO 250 DAYS AFTER DISCOVERY

We investigated the optical light curve of T Pyx during its 2011 outburst through compiling a database of Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) and AAVSO observations. The SMEI light curve, providing unprecedented detail covering t=1.5-49 days post-discovery, was divided into four phases based on the idealised nova optical light curve; the initial rise (1.5-3.3 days), the pre-maximum halt (3.3-13.3 days), the final rise (14.7-27.9 days), and the early decline (27.9 days - -). The SMEI light curve contains a strongly detected period of 1.44_0.05 days during the pre-maximum halt phase. These oscillations resemble those found in recent TNR models arising from instabilities in the expanding envelope. No spectral variations that mirror the light curve periodicity were found however. The marked dip at t_22-24 days just before light curve maximum at t=27.9 days may represent the same (shorter duration) phenomenon seen in other novae observed by SMEI and present in some model light curves. The spectra from the 2m Liverpool Telescope and SMARTS 1.5m telescope were obtained from t=0.8-80.7 and 155.1-249.9 days, covering the major phases of development. The nova was observed very early in its rise where a distinct high velocity ejection phase was evident with derived Vej_4000 km

Spectroscopic and Photometric Development of T Pyxidis (2011) from 0.8 to 250 Days After Discovery

We investigated the optical light curve of T Pyx during its 2011 outburst through compiling a database of SMEI and AAVSO observations. The SMEI light curve, providing unprecedented detail with high cadence data during t=1.5-49 days post-discovery, was divided into four phases based on the idealised nova optical light curve; the initial rise, the pre-maximum halt (or the 'plateau'), the final rise, and the early decline. Variation in the SMEI light curve reveals a strongly detected period of 1.44\pm0.04 days before the visual maximum. The spectra from the LT and SMARTS telescopes were investigated during t=0.8-80.7 and 155.1-249.9 days. The nova was observed very early in its rise and a distinct high velocity ejection phase was evident. A marked drop and then gradual increase in derived ejection velocities were present. Here we propose two different stages of mass loss, a short-lived phase occurring immediately after outburst followed by a more steadily evolving and higher mass loss phase. The overall spectral development follows that typical of a Classical Nova and comparison to the photometric behaviour reveals consistencies with the simple evolving pseudo-photosphere model of the nova outburst. The optical spectra are also compared to X-ray and radio light curves. Weak [Fe X] 6375A emission was marginally detected before the rise in X-ray emission. The middle of the plateau in the X-ray light curve is coincident with the appearance of high ionization species detected in optical spectra and the peak of the high frequency radio flux

Nova light curves from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) - II. The extended catalog

We present the results from observing nine Galactic novae in eruption with the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) between 2004 and 2009. While many of these novae reached peak magnitudes that were either at or approaching the detection limits of SMEI, we were still able to produce light curves that in many cases contained more data at and around the initial rise, peak, and decline than those found in other variable star catalogs. For each nova, we obtained a peak time, maximum magnitude, and for several an estimate of the decline time (t2). Interestingly, although of lower quality than those found in Hounsell et al. (2010a), two of the light curves may indicate the presence of a pre-maximum halt. In addition the high cadence of the SMEI instrument has allowed the detection of low amplitude variations in at least one of the nova light curves

Search-Based Predictive Modelling for Software Engineering: How Far Have We Gone?

In this keynote I introduce the use of Predictive Analytics for Software Engineering (SE) and then focus on the use of search-based heuristics to tackle long-standing SE prediction problems including (but not limited to) software development effort estimation and software defect prediction. I review recent research in Search-Based Predictive Modelling for SE in order to assess the maturity of the field and point out promising research directions. I conclude my keynote by discussing best practices for a rigorous and realistic empirical evaluation of search-based predictive models, a condicio sine qua non to facilitate the adoption of prediction models in software industry practices.Predictive analytics Predictive modelling Search-based software engineering Machine learning Software analytic

Sparsest factor analysis for clustering variables: a matrix decomposition approach

We propose a new procedure for sparse factor analysis (FA) such that each variable loads only one common factor. Thus, the loading matrix has a single nonzero element in each row and zeros elsewhere. Such a loading matrix is the sparsest possible for certain number of variables and common factors. For this reason, the proposed method is named sparsest FA (SSFA). It may also be called FA-based variable clustering, since the variables loading the same common factor can be classified into a cluster. In SSFA, all model parts of FA (common factors, their correlations, loadings, unique factors, and unique variances) are treated as fixed unknown parameter matrices and their least squares function is minimized through specific data matrix decomposition. A useful feature of the algorithm is that the matrix of common factor scores is re-parameterized using QR decomposition in order to efficiently estimate factor correlations. A simulation study shows that the proposed procedure can exactly identify the true sparsest models. Real data examples demonstrate the usefulness of the variable clustering performed by SSFA

Consequentialism and Virtue

We examine the following consequentialist view of virtue: a trait is a virtue if and only if it has good consequences in some relevant way. We highlight some motivations for this basic account, and offer twelve choice points for filling it out. Next, we explicate Julia Driver’s consequentialist view of virtue in reference to these choice points, and we canvass its merits and demerits. Subsequently, we consider three suggestions that aim to increase the plausibility of her position, and critically analyze them. We conclude that one of those proposed revisions would improve her account. NOTE: I will self-archive the paper after the 24 month embargo period ends. If you want a copy, just email me

No neon, but jets in the remarkable recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a? - Hubble Space Telescope spectroscopy of the 2015 eruption

The 2008 discovery of an eruption of M31N 2008-12a began a journey on which the true nature of this remarkable recurrent nova continues to be revealed. M31N 2008-12a contains a white dwarf close to the Chandrasekhar limit, accreting at a high rate from its companion, and undergoes thermonuclear eruptions which are observed yearly and may even be twice as frequent. In this paper, we report on Hubble Space Telescope STIS UV spectroscopy taken within days of the predicted 2015 eruption, coupled with Keck spectroscopy of the 2013 eruption. Together, this spectroscopy permits the reddening to be constrained to E(B-V) = 0.10 +/- 0.03. The UV spectroscopy reveals evidence for highly ionized, structured, and high velocity ejecta at early times. No evidence for neon is seen in these spectra however, but it may be that little insight can be gained regarding the composition of the white dwarf (CO vs ONe)

No neon, but jets in the remarkable recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a? - Hubble Space Telescope spectroscopy of the 2015 eruption

The 2008 discovery of an eruption of M31N 2008-12a began a journey on which the true nature of this remarkable recurrent nova continues to be revealed. M31N 2008-12a contains a white dwarf close to the Chandrasekhar limit, accreting at a high rate from its companion, and undergoes thermonuclear eruptions which are observed yearly and may even be twice as frequent. In this paper, we report on Hubble Space Telescope STIS UV spectroscopy taken within days of the predicted 2015 eruption, coupled with Keck spectroscopy of the 2013 eruption. Together, this spectroscopy permits the reddening to be constrained to E(B-V) = 0.10 +/- 0.03. The UV spectroscopy reveals evidence for highly ionized, structured, and high velocity ejecta at early times. No evidence for neon is seen in these spectra however, but it may be that little insight can be gained regarding the composition of the white dwarf (CO vs ONe)

From External Evaluation, to School Self-evaluation, to Peer Review

Most modern systems of school education around the world now have highly developed evaluation processes. Following quickly in the wake of external evaluation policies have followed calls for schools to develop their own capacities for self-review. An OECD report (2013) describes a number of ways in which developing school evaluation capacity should be a priority for school improvement. Among the report’s suggestions are promoting peer learning among schools (pp. 469–470). This chapter describes the research on external evaluation, internal evaluation and the relationship between these two. It then moves on to define and describes peer review and chart its growth. The accountability dimension of peer review is also explored. Finally the existing evidence on peer review is presented from the vocational and schools sectors to show key findings so far, and key conditions for effective peer review are described

Urban signals in high-resolution weather and climate simulations: role of urban land-surface characterisation

Two urban schemes within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are evaluated offline against multi-year flux observations in the densely built-up city centre of London and in suburban Swindon (UK): (i) the 1-tile slab model, used in climate simulations, (ii) the 2-tile canopy model MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme), used for numerical weather pre- diction over the UK. Offline, both models perform better at the suburban site, where differences between the urban schemes are less pronounced due to larger vegetation fractions. At both sites, the outgoing short- and longwave radiation is more accurately represented than the turbulent heat fluxes. The seasonal varia- tions of model skill are large in London, where the sensible heat flux in autumn and winter is strongly under-predicted if the large city-centre magnitudes of anthro- pogenic heat emissions are not represented. The delayed timing of the sensible heat flux in the 1-tile model in London results in large negative bias in the morning. The partitioning of the urban surface into canyon and roof in MORUSES improves this as the roof-tile is modelled with a very low thermal inertia, but phase and amplitude of the gridbox-averaged flux critically depend on accurate knowledge of the plan-area fractions of streets and buildings. Not representing non-urban land- cover (e.g. vegetation, inland water) in London results in severely under-predicted latent heat fluxes. Control runs demonstrate that the skill of both models can be greatly improved by providing accurate land-cover and morphology information and using representative anthropogenic heat emissions, which is essential if the model output is intended to inform integrated urban services