The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

Mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

Matters Arising to this article was published on 03 August 2022, available online at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04826-7 . A second Matters Arising to this article was published on 06 September 2023, available online at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06355-3 .Data availability: Summary statistics generated by the COVID-19 HGI are available at https://www.covid19hg.org/results/r5/ and are available in the GWAS Catalog (study code GCST011074). The analyses described here include the freeze-5 data. COVID-19 HGI continues to regularly release new data freezes. Summary statistics for non-European ancestry samples are not currently available due to the small individual sample sizes of these groups, but results for lead variants of 13 loci are reported in Supplementary Table 3. Individual level data can be requested directly from contributing studies, listed in Supplementary Table 1. We used publicly available data from GTEx (https://gtexportal.org/home/), the Neale lab (https://www.nealelab.is/uk-biobank/), Finucane lab (https://www.finucanelab.org), the FinnGen Freeze 4 cohort (https://www.finngen.fi/en/access_results) and the eQTL catalogue release 3 (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/eqtl/).Code availability: The code for summary statistics lift-over, the projection PCA pipeline including precomputed loadings and meta-analyses are available on GitHub (https://github.com/covid19-hg/) and the code for the Mendelian randomization and genetic correlation pipeline is available on GitHub at https://github.com/marcoralab/MRcovid.Reporting summary: Further information on research design is available in the Nature Research Reporting Summary linked to this paper online at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03767-x#MOESM2 .Supplementary information is available onlne at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03767-x#Sec24 .Extended data figures and tables are available online at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03767-x#Sec23 .Copyright © The Author(s) 2021. The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-191,2, host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases3–7. They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease

A second update on mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

Matters Arising From: COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03767-x (2021)Data availability: Summary statistics generated by the COVID-19 HGI are available online, including per-ancestry summary statistics for African, admixed American, East Asian, European and South Asian ancestries (https://www.covid19hg.org/results/r7/). The analyses described here used the data release 7. If available, individual-level data can be requested directly from contributing studies, listed in Supplementary Table 1. We used publicly available data from GTEx (https://gtexportal.org/home/), the Neale laboratory (http://www.nealelab.is/uk-biobank/), the Finucane laboratory (https://www.finucanelab.org), the FinnGen Freeze 4 cohort (https://www.finngen.fi/en/access_results) and the eQTL catalogue release 3 (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/eqtl/).Code availability: The code for summary statistics lift-over, the projection PCA pipeline including precomputed loadings and meta-analyses (https://github.com/covid19-hg/); for heritability estimation (https://github.com/AndrewsLabUCSF/COVID19_heritability); for Mendelian randomization and genetic correlation (https://github.com/marcoralab/MRcovid); and subtype analyses (https://github.com/mjpirinen/covid19-hgi_subtypes) are available at GitHub.Reporting summary: Further information on research design is available in the Nature Portfolio Reporting Summary linked to this article online at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06355-3#MOESM2 .Supplementary information is available online at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06355-3#Sec4 .Copyright © The Author(s) 2023. Investigating the role of host genetic factors in COVID-19 severity and susceptibility can inform our understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms that influence adverse outcomes and drug development1,2. Here we present a second updated genome-wide association study (GWAS) on COVID-19 severity and infection susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 from the COVID-19 Host Genetic Initiative (data release 7). We performed a meta-analysis of up to 219,692 cases and over 3 million controls, identifying 51 distinct genome-wide significant loci—adding 28 loci from the previous data release2. The increased number of candidate genes at the identified loci helped to map three major biological pathways that are involved in susceptibility and severity: viral entry, airway defence in mucus and type I interferon

Finnish and Swedish business cycles in a global context

Finnish and Swedish business cycles, World business cycle, European business cycle, Symmetry and comovement of cycles, E32, F41,

A sharp lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary imaged beneath eastern North America

Plate tectonic theory hinges on the concept of a relatively rigid lithosphere moving over a weaker asthenosphere, yet the nature of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary remains poorly understood. The gradient in seismic velocity that occurs at this boundary is central to constraining the physical and chemical properties that create differences in mechanical strength between the two layers. For example, if the lithosphere is simply a thermal boundary layer that is more rigid owing to colder temperatures, mantle flow models1, 2 indicate that the velocity gradient at its base would occur over tens of kilometres. In contrast, if the asthenosphere is weak owing to volatile enrichment3, 4, 5, 6 or the presence of partial melt7, the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary could occur over a much smaller depth range. Here we use converted seismic phases in eastern North America to image a very sharp seismic velocity gradient at the base of the lithosphere—a 3–11 per cent drop in shear-wave velocity over a depth range of 11 km or less at 90–110 km depth. Such a strong, sharp boundary cannot be reconciled with a purely thermal gradient, but could be explained by an asthenosphere that contains a few per cent partial melt7 or that is enriched in volatiles relative to the lithosphere3, 4, 5, 6