Alternative Methods of Seasonal Adjustment

Alternative methods for the seasonal adjustment of economic data are described that operate in the time domain and in the frequency domain. The time-domain method, which employs a classical comb filter, mimics the effects of the model-based procedures of the SEATS–TRAMO and STAMP programs. The frequency-domain method eliminates the sinusoidal elements of which, in the judgment of the user, the seasonal component is composed. It is proposed that, in some circumstances, seasonal adjustment is best achieved by eliminating all elements in excess of the frequency that marks the upper limit of the trend-cycle component of the data. It is argued that the choice of the method seasonal adjustment is liable to affect the determination of the turning points of the business cycle.Wiener–Kolmogorov Filtering; Frequency-Domain Methods; The Trend-Cycle Component

Real-time representations of the output gap

Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculate probability forecasts that convey in a clear way the uncertainties associated with the gap measures. The methods are applied to data for the United States 1965q4–2004q4, and the improvements over standard methods are illustrated

Do medical students want to learn about global health?

Conflicts of interest and funding: We declare that we have no conflicts of interest. A grant from the Partnership of Maternal, Newborn and Child Health funded this studyPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Logistics of passengers at the domestic airports

As statistics show, air travel is one of the most prevalent in this society of ours from day to day is increasing its use. Characteristic of air travel and transport is his speed but that speed depends from many factors. Some of these factors are: the speed and capacity of the aircraft, the speed of transport of goods to and from the airport warehouses them to planes, the speed of data processing for passengers and their luggage forwarding to the appropriate place for loading the plane, the speed of system transfer the luggage of a passenger to the appropriate place for loading the plane and the speed of the staff handled it. Hereafter will talk about all these factors which affect to a fast and successful air transport

Enhancing the ESIM (Embedded Systems Improving Method) by Combining Information Flow Diagram with Analysis Matrix for Efficient Analysis of Unexpected Obstacles in Embedded Software

In order to improve the quality of embedded software, this paper proposes an enhancement to the ESIM (Embedded Systems Improving Method) by combining an IFD (Information Flow Diagram) with an Analysis Matrix to analyze unexpected obstacles in the software. These obstacles are difficult to predict in the software specification. Recently, embedded systems have become larger and more complicated. Theoretically therefore, the development cycle of these systems should be longer. On the contrary, in practice the cycle has been shortened. This trend in industry has resulted in the oversight of unexpected obstacles, and consequently affected the quality of embedded software. In order to prevent the oversight of unexpected obstacles, we have already proposed two methods for requirements analysis: the ESIM using an Analysis Matrix and a method that uses an IFD. In order to improve the efficiency of unexpected obstacle analysis at reasonable cost, we now enhance the ESIM by combining an IFD with an Analysis Matrix. The enhancement is studied from the following three viewpoints. First, a conceptual model comprising both the Analysis Matrix and IFD is defined. Then, a requirements analysis procedure is proposed, that uses both the Analysis Matrix and IFD, and assigns each specific role to either an expert or non-expert engineer. Finally, to confirm the effectiveness of this enhancement, we carry out a description experiment using an IFD.14th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference (APSEC\u2707), 4-7 Dec. 2007, Aichi, Japa

Role of transvaginal sonography in various gynecological disorders

Background: Transvaginal sonography (TVS) is a new diagnostic technique used for the evaluation of the female pelvis. The objective of the present study was to study the role of TVS and to assess the diagnostic accuracy in gynecological disorders.Methods: Total number of 100 patients attending OPDs with various complaints was selected by random technique of the study.  All the patients have informed consent and thorough clinical examination including general, systemic and pelvic examination was conducted after taking a detailed history then the patients underwent TVS followed by one of the procedures like fractional curettage, dilatation and curettage and abdominal hysterectomy (with or without conservation of ovaries) or conservative management with regular follow up.Results: The sensitivity of TVS in diagnosing dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB) and pelvic inflammatory diseases (PID) was 100% and specificity was 85.1% and 95% respectively. For fibroids and ovarian mass diagnosis, sensitivity was 68.9% and 80.9% respectively and specificity was 100%. Diagnostic accuracy of clinical diagnosis was 70.0% whereas TVS had 94.0% of diagnostic accuracy in diagnosing various gynecological disorders.Conclusions: The final outcome is that TVS examination is an important non-invasive investigation, can be used as important diagnostic method in various gynecological disorders as it has got a high diagnostic accuracy

Study of breastfeeding practices and problems among postnatal mothers: a hospital based study

Background: Breastfeeding has many health and developmental advantages for infant and mothers. Breastfeeding remains the simplest, healthiest and least expensive feeding method that fulfils the infant’s needs.Methods: 112 mothers having infants of age group less than 1 year were included in the study. Self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on breastfeeding practices in the initial six months of birth of the child. Study population were postnatal mothers in KIMS Hubli, Hospital IPD and OPD.Results: 112 lactating mothers were included in the study. Majority of subjects 86 (76.7%) were in the age group 21-30 years. About 43 (38.4%) lactating mother initiated breast feeding practices within 1 hour after the delivery. 63.4% of the infants received exclusive breast feeding. Lactation failure 40% and unsatisfactory growth of baby 50% were the main reasons for early weaning. Most common cause of delay in initiation in breast were caesarian section and delivery complication (53.12% and 21.88% respectively) Only 27 (24.1%) babies were given pre-lacteal feed.Conclusions: There is a need of giving information regarding breast feeding during antenatal visits to inform the mothers regarding proven facts of advantages of exclusive breastfeeding, as undesirable cultural practices such as giving pre-lacteals, late initiation of breast feeding are still prevalent among the community and these should be discouraged. For successful feeding, mothers need active support, care and privacy during pregnancy and following birth, not only of their families and communities but also of the entire health system