Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

f(R) theories

Over the past decade, f(R) theories have been extensively studied as one of the simplest modifications to General Relativity. In this article we review various applications of f(R) theories to cosmology and gravity - such as inflation, dark energy, local gravity constraints, cosmological perturbations, and spherically symmetric solutions in weak and strong gravitational backgrounds. We present a number of ways to distinguish those theories from General Relativity observationally and experimentally. We also discuss the extension to other modified gravity theories such as Brans-Dicke theory and Gauss-Bonnet gravity, and address models that can satisfy both cosmological and local gravity constraints.Comment: 156 pages, 14 figures, Invited review article in Living Reviews in Relativity, Published version, Comments are welcom

Synchronous Rotation in the (136199) Eris–Dysnomia System

We combine photometry of Eris from a 6 month campaign on the Palomar 60 inch telescope in 2015, a 1 month Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 campaign in 2018, and Dark Energy Survey data spanning 2013–2018 to determine a light curve of definitive period 15.771 ± 0.008 days (1σ formal uncertainties), with nearly sinusoidal shape and peak-to-peak flux variation of 3%. This is consistent at part-per-thousand precision with the P = 15.785 90 ± 0.00005 day sidereal period of Dysnomia's orbit around Eris, strengthening the recent detection of synchronous rotation of Eris by Szakáts et al. with independent data. Photometry from Gaia are consistent with the same light curve. We detect a slope of 0.05 ± 0.01 mag per degree of Eris's brightness with respect to illumination phase averaged across g, V, and r bands, intermediate between Pluto's and Charon's values. Variations of 0.3 mag are detected in Dysnomia's brightness, plausibly consistent with a double-peaked light curve at the synchronous period. The synchronous rotation of Eris is consistent with simple tidal models initiated with a giant-impact origin of the binary, but is difficult to reconcile with gravitational capture of Dysnomia by Eris. The high albedo contrast between Eris and Dysnomia remains unexplained in the giant-impact scenario

Ultracool dwarfs candidates based on 6 yr of the Dark Energy Survey data

We present a sample of 19 583 ultracool dwarf candidates brighter than z ≤23 selected from the Dark Energy Survey DR2 coadd data matched to VHS DR6, VIKING DR5, and AllWISE covering ∼ 480 deg2. The ultracool candidates were first pre-selected based on their (i–z), (z–Y), and (Y–J) colours. They were further classified using a method that compares their optical, near-infrared, and mid-infrared colours against templates of M, L, and T dwarfs. 14 099 objects are presented as new L and T candidates and the remaining objects are from the literature, including 5342 candidates from our previous work. Using this new and deeper sample of ultracool dwarf candidates we also present: 20 new candidate members to nearby young moving groups and associations, variable candidate sources and four new wide binary systems composed of two ultracool dwarfs. Finally, we also show the spectra of 12 new ultracool dwarfs discovered by our group and presented here for the first time. These spectroscopically confirmed objects are a sanity check of our selection of ultracool dwarfs and photometric classification method

The PSZ-MCMF catalogue of Planck clusters over the des region

We present the first systematic follow-up of Planck Sunyaev–Zeldovich effect (SZE) selected candidates down to signal-to-noise (S/N) of 3 over the 5000 deg2 covered by the Dark Energy Survey. Using the MCMF cluster confirmation algorithm, we identify optical counterparts, determine photometric redshifts, and richnesses and assign a parameter, fcont, that reflects the probability that each SZE-optical pairing represents a random superposition of physically unassociated systems rather than a real cluster. The new PSZ-MCMF cluster catalogue consists of 853 MCMF confirmed clusters and has a purity of 90 per cent. We present the properties of subsamples of the PSZ-MCMF catalogue that have purities ranging from 90 per cent to 97.5 per cent, depending on the adopted fcont threshold. Halo mass estimates M500, redshifts, richnesses, and optical centres are presented for all PSZ-MCMF clusters. The PSZ-MCMF catalogue adds 589 previously unknown Planck identified clusters over the DES footprint and provides redshifts for an additional 50 previously published Planck-selected clusters with S/N>4.5. Using the subsample with spectroscopic redshifts, we demonstrate excellent cluster photo-z performance with an RMS scatter in Δz/(1 + z) of 0.47 per cent. Our MCMF based analysis allows us to infer the contamination fraction of the initial S/N>3 Planck-selected candidate list, which is ∼50 per cent. We present a method of estimating the completeness of the PSZ-MCMF cluster sample. In comparison to the previously published Planck cluster catalogues, this new S/N>3 MCMF confirmed cluster catalogue populates the lower mass regime at all redshifts and includes clusters up to z∼1.3

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Corrections on Photometry Due to Wavelength-dependent Atmospheric Effects

Wavelength-dependent atmospheric effects impact photometric supernova flux measurements for ground-based observations. We present corrections on supernova flux measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program’s 5YR sample (DES-SN5YR) for differential chromatic refraction (DCR) and wavelength-dependent seeing, and we show their impact on the cosmological parameters w and Ωm . We use g − i colors of Type Ia supernovae to quantify astrometric offsets caused by DCR and simulate point-spread functions (PSFs) using the GalSIM package to predict the shapes of the PSFs with DCR and wavelength-dependent seeing. We calculate the magnitude corrections and apply them to the magnitudes computed by the DES-SN5YR photometric pipeline. We find that for the DES-SN5YR analysis, not accounting for the astrometric offsets and changes in the PSF shape cause an average bias of +0.2 mmag and −0.3 mmag, respectively, with standard deviations of 0.7 mmag and 2.7 mmag across all DES observing bands (griz) throughout all redshifts. When the DCR and seeing effects are not accounted for, we find that w and Ωm are lower by less than 0.004 ± 0.02 and 0.001 ± 0.01, respectively, with 0.02 and 0.01 being the 1σ statistical uncertainties. Although we find that these biases do not limit the constraints of the DES-SN5YR sample, future surveys with much higher statistics, lower systematics, and especially those that observe in the u band will require these corrections as wavelength-dependent atmospheric effects are larger at shorter wavelengths. We also discuss limitations of our method and how they can be better accounted for in future surveys

Timing the r-process Enrichment of the Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxy Reticulum II

The ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Reticulum II (Ret II) exhibits a unique chemical evolution history, with 72 − 12 + 10 % of its stars strongly enhanced in r-process elements. We present deep Hubble Space Telescope photometry of Ret II and analyze its star formation history. As in other ultra-faint dwarfs, the color-magnitude diagram is best fit by a model consisting of two bursts of star formation. If we assume that the bursts were instantaneous, then the older burst occurred around the epoch of reionization, forming ∼80% of the stars in the galaxy, while the remainder of the stars formed ∼3 Gyr later. When the bursts are allowed to have nonzero durations, we obtain slightly better fits. The best-fitting model in this case consists of two bursts beginning before reionization, with approximately half the stars formed in a short (100 Myr) burst and the other half in a more extended period lasting 2.6 Gyr. Considering the full set of viable star formation history models, we find that 28% of the stars formed within 500 ± 200 Myr of the onset of star formation. The combination of the star formation history and the prevalence of r-process-enhanced stars demonstrates that the r-process elements in Ret II must have been synthesized early in its initial star-forming phase. We therefore constrain the delay time between the formation of the first stars in Ret II and the r-process nucleosynthesis to be less than 500 Myr. This measurement rules out an r-process source with a delay time of several Gyr or more, such as GW170817

Characterizing the intracluster light over the redshift range 0.2 < z < 0.8 in the DES-ACT overlap

We characterize the properties and evolution of bright central galaxies (BCGs) and the surrounding intracluster light (ICL) in galaxy clusters identified in the Dark Energy Survey and Atacama Cosmology Telescope Survey (DES-ACT) overlapping regions, covering the redshift range 0.20 14.4. We also measure the stellar mass–halo mass (SMHM) relation for the BCG+ICL system and find that the slope, β, which characterizes the dependence of M200m,SZ on the BCG+ICL stellar mass, increases with radius. The outskirts are more strongly correlated with the halo than the core, which supports that the BCG+ICL system follows a two-phase growth, where recent growth (z < 2) occurs beyond the BCG’s core. Additionally, we compare our observed SMHM relation results to the IllustrisTNG300-1 cosmological hydrodynamic simulations and find moderate qualitative agreement in the amount of diffuse light. However, the SMHM relation’s slope is steeper in TNG300-1 and the intrinsic scatter is lower, likely from the absence of projection effects in TNG300-1. Additionally, we find that the ICL exhibits a colour gradient such that the outskirts are bluer than the core. Moreover, for the lower halo mass clusters (log10(M200m,SZ/M⊙) < 14.59), we detect a modest change in the colour gradient’s slope with lookback time, which combined with the absence of stellar mass growth may suggest that lower mass clusters have been involved in growth via tidal stripping more recently than their higher mass counterparts

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Program: H beta lags from the 6-yr survey

Reverberation mapping measurements have been used to constrain the relationship between the size of the broad-line region and luminosity of active galactic nuclei (AGN). This R–L relation is used to estimate single-epoch virial black hole masses, and has been proposed to use to standardize AGN to determine cosmological distances. We present reverberation measurements made with Hβ from the 6-yr Australian Dark Energy Survey (OzDES) Reverberation Mapping Program. We successfully recover reverberation lags for eight AGN at 0.12 &amp;lt; z &amp;lt; 0.71, probing higher redshifts than the bulk of Hβ measurements made to date. Our fit to the R–L relation has a slope of α = 0.41 ± 0.03 and an intrinsic scatter of σ = 0.23 ± 0.02 dex. The results from our multi-object spectroscopic survey are consistent with previous measurements made by dedicated source-by-source campaigns, and with the observed dependence on accretion rate. Future surveys, including LSST, TiDES, and SDSS-V, which will be revisiting some of our observed fields, will be able to build on the results of our first-generation multi-object reverberation mapping survey

Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect with ACT, DES, and BOSS: A novel hybrid estimator

The kinematic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ and tSZ) effects probe the abundance and thermodynamics of ionized gas in galaxies and clusters. We present a new hybrid estimator to measure the kSZ effect by combining cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropy maps with photometric and spectroscopic optical survey data. The method interpolates a velocity reconstruction from a spectroscopic catalog at the positions of objects in a photometric catalog, which makes it possible to leverage the high number density of the photometric catalog and the precision of the spectroscopic survey. Combining this hybrid kSZ estimator with a measurement of the tSZ effect simultaneously constrains the density and temperature of free electrons in the photometrically selected galaxies. Using the 1000 deg2 of overlap between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 5, the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) Data Release 12, we detect the kSZ signal at 4.8σ and reject the null (no-kSZ) hypothesis at 5.1σ. This corresponds to 2.0σ per 100,000 photometric objects with a velocity field based on a spectroscopic survey with 1/5th the density of the photometric catalog. For comparison, a recent ACT analysis using exclusively spectroscopic data from BOSS measured the kSZ signal at 2.1σ per 100,000 objects. Our derived constraints on the thermodynamic properties of the galaxy halos are consistent with previous measurements. With future surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, we expect that this hybrid estimator could result in measurements with significantly better signal-to-noise than those that rely on spectroscopic data alone