Mathematical Modelling of Chemical Diffusion through Skin using Grid-based PSEs

A Problem Solving Environment (PSE) with connections to remote distributed Grid processes is developed. The Grid simulation is itself a parallel process and allows steering of individual or multiple runs of the core computation of chemical diffusion through the stratum corneum, the outer layer of the skin. The effectiveness of this Grid-based approach in improving the quality of the simulation is assessed

Effect of maternal panic disorder on mother-child interaction and relation to child anxiety and child self-efficacy

To determine whether mothers with panic disorder with or without agoraphobia interacted differently with their children than normal control mothers, 86 mothers and their adolescents (aged between 13 and 23 years) were observed during a structured play situation. Maternal as well as adolescent anxiety status was assessed according to a structured diagnostic interview. Results showed that mothers with panic disorder/agoraphobia showed more verbal control, were more criticizing and less sensitive during mother-child interaction than mothers without current mental disorders. Moreover, more conflicts were observed between mother and child dyadic interactions when the mother suffered from panic disorder. The comparison of parenting behaviors among anxious and non-anxious children did not reveal any significant differences. These findings support an association between parental over-control and rejection and maternal but not child anxiety and suggest that particularly mother anxiety status is an important determinant of parenting behavior. Finally, an association was found between children’s perceived self-efficacy, parental control and child anxiety symptoms

Automatic optic disc detection in colour fundus images by means of multispectral analysis and information content

The optic disc (OD) in retinal fundus images is widely used as a reference in computer-based systems for the measurement of the severity of retinal disease. A number of algorithms have been published in the past 5 years to locate and measure the OD in digital fundus images. Our proposed algorithm, automatically: (i) uses the three channels (RGB) of the digital colour image to locate the region of interest (ROI) where the OD lies, (ii) measures the Shannon information content per channel in the ROI, to decide which channel is most appropriate for searching for the OD centre using the circular Hough transform. A series of evaluations were undertaken to test our hypothesis that using the three channels gives a better performance than a single channel. Three different databases were used for evaluation purposes with a total of 2,371 colour images giving a misdetection error of 3% in the localisation of the centre of the OD. We find that the area determined by our algorithm which assumes that the OD is circular, is similar to that found by other algorithms that detected the shape of the OD. Five metrics were measured for comparison with other recent studies. Combining the two databases where expert delineation of the OD is available (1,240 images), the average results for our multispectral algorithm are: TPR = 0.879, FPR = 0.003, Accuracy = 0.994, Overlap = 80.6% and Dice index = 0.878

Understanding mechanisms for trends in Sahelian squall lines: Roles of thermodynamics and shear

Squall lines dominate rainfall in the West African Sahel, and evidence suggests they have increased in intensity over recent decades. Stronger wind shear may be a key driver of this trend and could continue to strengthen with climate change. However, global numerical models struggle to capture the role of shear for organised convection, making predictions of changing rainfall intensities in the Sahel uncertain. To investigate the impact of recent and possible future environmental changes, and to isolate thermodynamic effects from shear effects, idealised squall line simulations were initialised with a profile representative of the present day: this profile was then modified using trends from reanalyses and climate projections. Increased shear led to increased storm intensity and rainfall, but the effects of the thermodynamic changes dominated the effects from shear. Simulations initiated with future profiles produced shorter‐lived storms, likely due to increased convective inhibition and the absence of large‐scale convergence or synoptic variability in the idealised model. A theoretical model based on the relative inflow of convectively unstable air and moisture was found to predict bulk characteristics of the storms accurately, including mean rain rates and area‐averaged maximum vertical velocities, explaining the role of shear. However, the model is not a prognostic tool as rainfall is dependent on the storm speed, which remains a free parameter. The study shows the importance of shear to long‐term rainfall trends and highlights the need for climate models to include effects of shear to capture changes in extreme rainfall

A new measurement for posterior tilt predicts reoperation in undisplaced femoral neck fractures: 113 consecutive patients treated by internal fixation and followed for 1 year

Background and purpose Preoperative posterior tilt in undisplaced (Garden I–II) femoral neck fractures is thought to influence rates of reoperation. However, an exact method for its measurement has not yet been presented. We designed a new measurement for posterior tilt on preoperative lateral radiographs and investigated its association with later reoperation

Synthesis of global satellite observations of magmatic and volcanic deformation: implications for volcano monitoring & the lateral extent of magmatic domains

Global Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements made over the past decades provide insights into the lateral extent of magmatic domains, and capture volcanic process on scales useful for volcano monitoring. Satellite-based SAR imagery has great potential for monitoring topographic change, the distribution of eruptive products and surface displacements (InSAR) at subaerial volcanoes. However, there are challenges in applying it routinely, as would be required for the reliable operational assessment of hazard. The deformation detectable depends upon satellite repeat time and swath widths, relative to the spatial and temporal scales of volcanological processes. We describe the characteristics of InSAR-measured volcano deformation over the past two decades, highlighting both the technique’s capabilities and its limitations as a monitoring tool. To achieve this, we draw on two global datasets of volcano deformation: the Smithsonian Institution Volcanoes of the World database and the Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics volcano deformation catalogue, as well as compiling some measurement characteristics and interpretations from the primary literature. We find that a higher proportion of InSAR observations capture non-eruptive and non-magmatic processes than those from ground-based instrument networks, and that both transient ( 5 years) deformation episodes are under-represented. However, satellite radar is already used to assess the development of extended periods of unrest and long-lasting eruptions, and improved spatial resolution and coverage have resulted in the detection of previously unrecognised deformation at both ends of the spatial scale (~ 10 to > 1000 km²). ‘Baseline’ records of past InSAR measurements, including ‘null’ results, are fundamental for any future interpretation of interferograms in terms of hazard‚ both by providing information about past deformation at an individual volcano, and for assessing the characteristics of deformation that are likely to be detectable (and undetectable) using InSAR. More than half of all InSAR deformation signals attributed to magmatic processes have sources in the shallow crust (< 5 km depth). While the depth distribution of InSAR-derived deformation sources is affected by measurement limitations, their lateral distribution provides information about the extent of active magmatic domains. Deformation is common (24% of all potentially magmatic events) at loci ≥5 km away from the nearest active volcanic vent. This demonstrates that laterally extensive active magmatic domains are not exceptional, but can comprise the shallowest part of trans-crustal magmatic systems in a range of volcanic settings

The World Hip Trauma Evaluation Study 3 HEMIARTHROPLASTY EVALUATION BY MULTICENTRE INVESTIGATION - WHiTE 3: HEMI - AN ABRIDGED PROTOCOL

Approximately half of all hip fractures are displaced intracapsular fractures. The standard treatment for these fractures is either hemiarthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty. The recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance on hip fracture management recommends the use of 'proven' cemented stem arthroplasty with an Orthopaedic Device Evaluation Panel (ODEP) rating of at least 3B (97% survival at three years). The Thompsons prosthesis is currently lacking an ODEP rating despite over 50 years of clinical use, likely due to the paucity of implant survival data. Nationally, adherence to these guidelines is varied as there is debate as to which prosthesis optimises patient outcomes.This study design is a multi-centre, multi-surgeon, parallel, two arm, standard-of-care pragmatic randomised controlled trial. It will be embedded within the WHiTE Comprehensive Cohort Study (ISRCTN63982700). The main analysis is a two-way equivalence comparison between Hemi-Thompson and Hemi-Exeter polished taper with Unitrax head. Secondary outcomes will include radiological leg length discrepancy measured as per Bidwai and Willett, mortality, re-operation rate and indication for re-operation, length of index hospital stay and revision at four months. This study will be supplemented by the NHFD (National Hip Fracture Database) dataset.Evidence on the optimum choice of prosthesis for hemiarthroplasty of the hip is lacking. National guidance is currently based on expert opinion rather than empirical evidence. The incidence of hip fracture is likely to continue to increase and providing high quality evidence on the optimumCite this article: A. L. Sims. The World Hip Trauma Evaluation Study 3: Hemiarthroplasty Evaluation by Multicentre Investigation - WHITE 3: HEMI - An Abridged Protocol. Bone Joint Res 2016;5:18-25. doi: 10.1302/2046-3758.51.2000473

Use of primary care and other healthcare services between age 85 and 90 years: longitudinal analysis of a single-year birth cohort, the Newcastle 85+ study

Objective: To describe, using data from the Newcastle 85+ cohort study, the use of primary care and other healthcare services by 85-year-olds as they age. Design: Longitudinal population-based cohort study. Setting: Newcastle on Tyne and North Tyneside, UK. Participants: Community dwelling and institutionalised men and women recruited through general practices (n=845, 319 men and 526 women). Results: Contact was established with 97% (n=1409/1459) of eligible 85-year-olds, consent obtained from 74% (n=1042/1409) and 851 agreed to undergo the multidimensional health assessment and a general practice medical records review. A total of 845 participants had complete data at baseline for this study (319 male, 526 female), with 344 (118 male, 226 female) reinterviewed at 60 months. After adjusting for confounders, all consultations significantly increased over the 5 years (incidence rate ratio, IRR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05, P=0.001) as did general practitioner (GP) consultations (IRR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05, P=0.006). Significant increases were also observed in inpatient and day hospital use over time, though these disappeared after adjustment for confounders. Conclusions: Our study of primary, secondary and community care use by the very old reveals that, between the ages of 85 and 90 years, older people are much more likely to consult their GP than any other primary healthcare team members. With a rapidly ageing society, it is essential that both current and future GPs are appropriately skilled, and adequately supported by specialist colleagues, as the main healthcare provider for a population with complex and challenging needs

Exoplanet Detection and Its Dependence on Stochastic Sampling of the Stellar Initial Mass Function

Young moving groups (YMGs) are close (<100 pc), coherent collections of young (<100 Myr) stars that appear to have formed in the same star-forming molecular cloud. As such we would expect their individual initial mass functions (IMFs) to be similar to other star-forming regions, and by extension the Galactic field. Their close proximity to the Sun and their young ages means that YMGs are promising locations to search for young forming exoplanets. However, due to their low numbers of stars, stochastic sampling of the IMF means their stellar populations could vary significantly. We determine the range of planet-hosting stars (spectral types A, G, and M) possible from sampling the IMF multiple times, and find that some YMGs appear deficient in M-dwarfs. We then use these data to show that the expected probability of detecting terrestrial magma ocean planets is highly dependent on the exact numbers of stars produced through stochastic sampling of the IMF

Mirroring everyday clinical practice in clinical trial design: a new concept to improve the external validity of randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trials in the pharmacological treatment of major depression

Background: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials constitute the gold standard in clinical research when testing the efficacy of new psychopharmacological interventions in the treatment of major depression. However, the blinded use of placebo has been found to influence clinical trial outcomes and may bias patient selection. Discussion: To improve clinical trial design in major depression so as to reflect clinical practice more closely we propose to present patients with a balanced view of the benefits of study participation irrespective of their assignment to placebo or active treatment. In addition every participant should be given the option to finally receive the active medication. A research agenda is outlined to evaluate the impact of the proposed changes on the efficacy of the drug to be evaluated and on the demographic and clinical characteristics of the enrollment fraction with regard to its representativeness of the eligible population. Summary: We propose a list of measures to be taken to improve the external validity of double-blind, placebocontrolled trials in major depression. The recommended changes to clinical trial design may also be relevant for other psychiatric as well as medical disorders in which expectations regarding treatment outcome may affect the outcome itself