Forecasting Sovereign Default risk with Merton’s Model

Merton's structural model for sovereigns is proven to be useful to analyze the default risk of a country. We are the first to investigate how fast CDS spreads react to changes in model inputs and outputs. CDS spread changes strongly correlate with exchange rate returns, which are an input to the model. But CDS spread changes on average react with a delay to changes in model outputs such as the distance to default, the default probability and model spreads. Hence contingency claim analysis for sovereigns provides useful predictions for CDS spreads

Time-of-arrival distributions from position-momentum and energy-time joint measurements

The position-momentum quasi-distribution obtained from an Arthurs and Kelly joint measurement model is used to obtain indirectly an ``operational'' time-of-arrival (TOA) distribution following a quantization procedure proposed by Kocha\'nski and W\'odkiewicz [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2689 (1999)]. This TOA distribution is not time covariant. The procedure is generalized by using other phase-space quasi-distributions, and sufficient conditions are provided for time covariance that limit the possible phase-space quasi-distributions essentially to the Wigner function, which, however, provides a non-positive TOA quasi-distribution. These problems are remedied with a different quantization procedure which, on the other hand, does not guarantee normalization. Finally an Arthurs and Kelly measurement model for TOA and energy (valid also for arbitrary conjugate variables when one of the variables is bounded from below) is worked out. The marginal TOA distribution so obtained, a distorted version of Kijowski's distribution, is time covariant, positive, and normalized

TRPV1: A Target for Next Generation Analgesics

Transient Receptor Potential Vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) is a Ca2+ permeant non-selective cation channel expressed in a subpopulation of primary afferent neurons. TRPV1 is activated by physical and chemical stimuli. It is critical for the detection of nociceptive and thermal inflammatory pain as revealed by the deletion of the TRPV1 gene. TRPV1 is distributed in the peripheral and central terminals of the sensory neurons and plays a role in initiating action potentials at the nerve terminals and modulating neurotransmitter release at the first sensory synapse, respectively. Distribution of TRPV1 in the nerve terminals innervating blood vessels and in parts of the CNS that are not subjected to temperature range that is required to activate TRPV1 suggests a role beyond a noxious thermal sensor. Presently, TRPV1 is being considered as a target for analgesics through evaluation of different antagonists. Here, we will discuss the distribution and the functions of TRPV1, potential use of its agonists and antagonists as analgesics and highlight the functions that are not related to nociceptive transmission that might lead to adverse effects

Indoleamine-2,3-dioxygenase activity in experimental human endotoxemia

Background: Excessive tryptophan metabolism to kynurenine by the rate-limiting enzyme endothelial indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 (IDO) controls arterial vessel relaxation and causes hypotension in murine endotoxemia. However, its relevance in human endotoxemia has not been investigated so far. We thus aimed to study changes in blood pressure in parallel with tryptophan and kynurenine levels during experimental endotoxemia in humans. Findings: Six healthy male volunteers were given E. coli lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 4 ng/kg) as a 1-min intravenous infusion. They had levels of soluble E-Selectin and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 as well as IDO activity assessed as the kynurenine-to-tryptophan plasma ratio by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry at various time points during a 24 h time course. During endotoxemia, IDO activity significantly increased, reaching peak levels at 8 h after LPS infusion (44.0 ± 15.2 vs. 29.4 ± 6.8 at baseline, P<0.0001). IDO activity correlated inversely with the development of hypotension as shown by random effects linear regression models. Finally, IDO activity exhibited a kinetic profile similar to that of soluble endothelial-specific adhesion molecules. Conclusions: LPS is a triggering factor for the induction of IDO in men. Our findings strongly support the concept that the induction of IDO in the vascular endothelium contributes to hypotension in human sepsis

Phosphoserine aminotransferase 1 is associated to poor outcome on tamoxifen therapy in recurrent breast cancer

In a previous study, we detected a significant association between phosphoserine aminotransferase 1 (PSAT1) hyper-methylation and mRNA levels to outcome to tamoxifen treatment in recurrent disease. We here aimed to study the association of PSAT1 protein levels to outcome upon tamoxifen treatment and to obtain more insight in its role in tamoxifen resistance. A cohort of ER positive, hormonal therapy naïve primary breast carcinomas was immunohistochemically (IHC) stained for PSAT1. Staining was analyzed for association with patient's time to progression (TTP) and overall response on first-line tamoxifen for recurrent disease. PSAT1 mRNA levels were also assessed by reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR; n = 161) and Affymetrix GeneChip (n = 155). Association of PSAT1 to biological pathways on tamoxifen outcome were assessed by global test. PSAT1 protein and mRNA levels were significantly associated to poor outcome to tamoxifen treatment. When comparing PSAT1

Identifying somatic changes in drug transporters using whole genome and transcriptome sequencing data of advanced tumors

Drug resistance is a perpetual problem in cancer therapy with many underlying mechanisms. Alterations in drug transport over the cancer cell membrane can severely alter intratumoral drug exposure, contributing to resistance. Here, we present the somatic mutational landscape of 48 ATP-binding cassette and 416 solute carrier transporter genes in a cohort (CPCT-02; NCT01855477) of 3290 patients with different types of advanced and metastasized cancer through analysis of whole genome and transcriptome sequencing. In order to identify potential stressor mechanisms, we stratified patients based on previous systemic therapies and subsequently investigated the enrichment of mutations and copy-number alterations of transporter genes. In tumors from patients pretreated with protein kinase inhibitors (PKIs), genes encoding for specific copper (SLC31A1 and SLC31A2, χ2-test adjusted p-values: 6.9e-09 and 2.5e-09) and nucleoside transporters (SLC28A2 and SLC28A3, χ2-test adjusted p-values: 3.5e-06 and 6.8e-07) were deleted significantly more frequently than in patients pretreated with chemotherapy. Moreover, we detected 16 transporters that were differentially expressed at RNA level between these treatment groups. These findings contradict mechanisms of selective pressure, as they would be expected to originate during treatment with chemotherapy rather than with PKIs. Hence, they might constitute primary drug resistance mechanisms and, therefore, warrant further study.</p

Breakfast partly restores the anti-inflammatory function of high-density lipoproteins from patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High-density lipoproteins (HDL) of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have impaired anti-inflammatory activities. The anti-inflammatory activity of HDL has been determined ex vivo after isolation by different methods from blood mostly obtained after overnight fasting. We first determined the effect of the HDL isolation method, and subsequently the effect of food intake on the anti-inflammatory function of HDL from T2DM patients. METHODS: Blood was collected from healthy controls and T2DM patients after an overnight fast, and from T2DM patients 3 h after breakfast (n = 17 each). HDL was isolated by a two-step density gradient ultracentrifugation in iodixanol (HDL(DGUC2)), by sequential salt density flotation (HDL(SEQ)) or by PEG precipitation (HDL(PEG)). The anti-inflammatory function of HDL was determined by the reduction of the TNFα-induced expression of VCAM-1 in human coronary artery endothelial cells (HCAEC) and retinal endothelial cells (REC). RESULTS: HDL isolated by the three different methods from healthy controls inhibited TNFα-induced VCAM-1 expression in HCAEC. With apoA-I at 0.7 μM, HDL(DGUC2) and HDL(SEQ) were similarly effective (16% versus 14% reduction; n = 3; p > 0.05) but less effective than HDL(PEG) (28%, p < 0.05). Since ultracentrifugation removes most of the unbound plasma proteins, we used HDL(DGUC2) for further experiments. With apoA-I at 3.2 μM, HDL from fasting healthy controls and T2DM patients reduced TNFα-induced VCAM-1 expression in HCAEC by 58 ± 13% and 51 ± 20%, respectively (p = 0.35), and in REC by 42 ± 13% and 25 ± 18%, respectively (p < 0.05). Compared to preprandial HDL, postprandial HDL from T2DM patients reduced VCAM-1 expression by 56 ± 16% (paired test: p < 0.001) in HCAEC and by 34 ± 13% (paired test: p < 0.05) in REC. CONCLUSIONS: The ex vivo anti-inflammatory activity of HDL is affected by the HDL isolation method. Two-step ultracentrifugation in an iodixanol gradient is a suitable method for HDL isolation when testing HDL anti-inflammatory function. The anti-inflammatory activity of HDL from overnight fasted T2DM patients is significantly impaired in REC but not in HCAEC. The anti-inflammatory function of HDL is partly restored by food intake

Professionalism, Golf Coaching and a Master of Science Degree: A commentary

As a point of reference I congratulate Simon Jenkins on tackling the issue of professionalism in coaching. As he points out coaching is not a profession, but this does not mean that coaching would not benefit from going through a professionalization process. As things stand I find that the stimulus article unpacks some critically important issues of professionalism, broadly within the context of golf coaching. However, I am not sure enough is made of understanding what professional (golf) coaching actually is nor how the development of a professional golf coach can be facilitated by a Master of Science Degree (M.Sc.). I will focus my commentary on these two issues

Measurement of a small atmospheric νμ/νe\nu_\mu/\nu_e ratio

From an exposure of 25.5~kiloton-years of the Super-Kamiokande detector, 900 muon-like and 983 electron-like single-ring atmospheric neutrino interactions were detected with momentum $p_e > 100$ MeV/$c$, $p_\mu > 200$ MeV/$c$, and with visible energy less than 1.33 GeV. Using a detailed Monte Carlo simulation, the ratio $(\mu/e)_{DATA}/(\mu/e)_{MC}$ was measured to be $0.61 \pm 0.03(stat.) \pm 0.05(sys.)$, consistent with previous results from the Kamiokande, IMB and Soudan-2 experiments, and smaller than expected from theoretical models of atmospheric neutrino production.Comment: 14 pages with 5 figure