Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.Comment: To appear as Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science v2: vectorized 4 figures, fixed two typos, more detailed bibliograph

CURSO DIÁRIO E SAZONAL DO POTENCIAL HÍDRICO FOLIAR DE MOGNO EM SISTEMAAGROFLORESTAL1

Este trabalho objetivou avaliar o curso diário e sazonal do potencial hídrico foliar de mogno (Swietenia macrophylla King) (Meliaceae) em sistema agroflorestal (SAF). O experimento foi realizado em árvores de S. macrophylla plantadas num sistema agroflorestal instalado no Campo Experimental da Embrapa Amazônia Ocidental, Manaus, AM. Avaliou-se o potencial hídrico foliar (Ψf) dos cursos diário e sazonal nos anos 2004 e 2005, por meio da utilização de bomba de pressão tipo Scholander. Os resultados indicaram que os valores do Ψf de S. macrophylla, de modo geral, foram superiores no início da manhã e no final da tarde, com redução acentuada ao meio-dia, e que, em relação à sazonalidade de precipitação, as menores taxas foram reportadas para a época menos chuvosa, variando de -26 bar em 2004 para -31bar em 2005. Verificou-se que o potencial hídrico de Swietenia macrophylla em sistema agroflorestal sofreu reduções significativas em razão dos baixos índices pluviométricos entre junho e outubro de 2005