Observations of discrete magnetosonic waves off the magnetic equator

Fast mode magnetosonic waves are typically confined close to the magnetic equator and exhibit harmonic structures at multiples of the local, equatorial proton cyclotron frequency. We report observations of magnetosonic waves well off the equator at geomagnetic latitudes from −16.5°to −17.9° and L shell ~2.7–4.6. The observed waves exhibit discrete spectral structures with multiple frequency spacings. The predominant frequency spacings are ~6 and 9 Hz, neither of which is equal to the local proton cyclotron frequency. Backward ray tracing simulations show that the feature of multiple frequency spacings is caused by propagation from two spatially narrow equatorial source regions located at L ≈ 4.2 and 3.7. The equatorial proton cyclotron frequencies at those two locations match the two observed frequency spacings. Our analysis provides the first observations of the harmonic nature of magnetosonic waves well away from the equatorial region and suggests that the propagation from multiple equatorial sources contributes to these off-equatorial magnetosonic emissions with varying frequency spacings

Sparse, interpretable and transparent predictive model identification for healthcare data analysis

Data-driven modelling approaches play an indispensable role in analyzing and understanding complex processes. This study proposes a type of sparse, interpretable and transparent (SIT) machine learning model, which can be used to understand the dependent relationship of a response variable on a set of potential explanatory variables. An ideal candidate for such a SIT representation is the well-known NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs) model, which can be established from measured input and output data of the system of interest, and the final refined model is usually simple, parsimonious and easy to interpret. The performance of the proposed SIT models is evaluated through two real healthcare datasets

Observation of shocks associated with CMEs in 2007

The interaction of CMEs with the solar wind can lead to the formation of interplanetary shocks. Ions accelerated at these shocks contribute to the solar energetic protons observed in the vicinity of the Earth. Recently a joint analysis of Venus Express (VEX) and STEREO data by Russell et al. (2009) have shown that the formation of strong shocks associated with Co-rotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) takes place between the orbits of Venus and the Earth as a result of coalescence of weaker shocks formed earlier. The present study uses VEX and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) data in order to analyse shocks associated with CMEs that erupted on 29 and 30 July 2007 during the solar wind conjunction period between Venus and the Earth. For these particular cases it is shown that the above scenario of shock formation proposed for CIRs also takes place for CMEs. Contradiction with shock formation resulting from MHD modelling is explained by inability of classical MHD to account for the role of wave dispersion in the formation of the shock.©Author(s) 2014

Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to Geospace: Advances in understanding and space weather forecasts

The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) system identification technique is applied to various aspects of the magnetospheres dynamics. It is shown, from an example system, how the inputs to a system can be found from the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, a key concept of the NARMAX approach. The application of the NARMAX approach to the Dst (disturbance storm time) index and the electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) are reviewed, revealing new insight into the physics of the system. The review of studies into the Dst index illustrate how the NARMAX approach is able to find a coupling function for the Dst index from data, which was then analytically justified from first principles. While the review of the electron flux demonstrates how NARMAX is able to reveal new insight into the physics of the acceleration and loss processes within the radiation belt

Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes.

This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed