Parsimonious Catchment and River Flow Modelling

It is increasingly the case that models are being developed as “evolving” products rather than\ud one-off application tools, such that auditable modelling versus ad hoc treatment of models becomes a\ud pivotal issue. Auditable modelling is particularly vital to “parsimonious modelling” aimed at meeting\ud specific modelling requirements. This paper outlines various contributory factors and aims to seed\ud proactively a research topic by inextricably linking value/risk management to parsimonious modelling.\ud Value management in modelling may be implemented in terms of incorporating “enough detail” into a\ud model so that the synergy among the constituent units of the model captures that of the real system. It is a\ud problem of diminishing returns, since further reductions in the constituent units will create an\ud unacceptable difference between the model and the real system; conversely, any further detail will add to\ud the cost of modelling without returning any significant benefit. The paper also defines risk management\ud in relation to modelling. It presents a qualitative framework for value/risk management towards\ud parsimonious modelling by the categorisation of “modelling techniques” in terms of “control volume.

The Uncertainty of Fluxes

In the ordinary quantum Maxwell theory of a free electromagnetic field, formulated on a curved 3-manifold, we observe that magnetic and electric fluxes cannot be simultaneously measured. This uncertainty principle reflects torsion: fluxes modulo torsion can be simultaneously measured. We also develop the Hamilton theory of self-dual fields, noting that they are quantized by Pontrjagin self-dual cohomology theories and that the quantum Hilbert space is Z/2-graded, so typically contains both bosonic and fermionic states. Significantly, these ideas apply to the Ramond-Ramond field in string theory, showing that its K-theory class cannot be measured.Comment: 33 pages; minor modifications for publication in Commun. Math. Phy

M-theory and Characteristic Classes

In this note we show that the Chern-Simons and the one-loop terms in the M-theory action can be written in terms of new characters involving the M-theory four-form and the string classes. This sheds a new light on the topological structure behind M-theory and suggests the construction of a theory of `higher' characteristic classes.Comment: 8 pages. Error in gravitational term fixed; minor corrections; reference and acknowledgement adde

Developments in fish telemetry

Freshwater and marine ecosystems continue to be the focus of significant environmental change associated with an expanding human population and a rapidly changing climate. Many organisms within these environments, and fish in particular, are susceptible to increasing pressures, ranging from exploitation to modifications and loss of habitat. In order to manage and conserve these populations and protect biodiversity, these resources must be managed in a sympathetic and responsible manner. One biological tool that is progressively at the cutting edge of aquatic conservation is telemetry, which is increasingly being used by scientists to investigate fundamental aspects of animal biology in order to conserve and manage natural resources. The Sixth Conference on Fish Telemetry held in Europe was organised by the University of Evora and the Institute of Oceanography of the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon in June 2005. The Conference attracted 162 delegates from 25 countries stimulating a multidisciplinary approach to problem solving and further promoting technological development and innovation in the field of wildlife telemetry. The Conference provided an excellent forum for scientists and engineers to exchange views and to disseminate information on recent developments in order to support and provide the scientific basis for the sustainable management of aquatic resources. At the conference 74 oral and 56 poster contributions presented, and after review by members of the editorial board, 26 manuscripts were selected for inclusion within these proceedings. The selected papers are organised into four sections: (1) Human Impacts and Fisheries; (2) Migration and Behaviour; (3) Species Conservation and Habitat Rehabilitation; (4) Methodology and New Technology. We would like to thank the support of two institutions for the organization of the Conference, the University of Évora and the Institute of Oceanography (Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon), as well as the sponsorship of Administração do Porto de Sines, Ambassade de France au Portugal, Bacalhôa wines of Portugal, British Council (Portugal), Câmara Municipal de Sesimbra, Direccão-Geral das Pescas e Aquicultura, Fundação Luso-Americana, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Instituto da Água, Instituto de Turismo de Portugal, Instituto Italiano di Cultura Lisboa, Oceaná rio de Lisboa, and Região de Turismo da Costa Azul. We would also like to thank the members of the Conference Secretariat, Scientific and Organizing Committees, and all the attendees for contributing directly or indirectly to the success of this event. Special thanks go to 68 independent referees for helping to peer-review and select the manuscripts for the proceedings

Clinical recognition of symptomatic midfoot osteoarthritis: findings from the clinical assessment study of the foot

Purpose: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common yet poorly understood cause of disabling foot pain. In the absence of radiographic confirmation of OA, clinical diagnosis in primary care is inhibited by lack of evidence informing clinical examination. This study aimed to determine whether the presence of symptomatic midfoot OA (SMOA) can be clinically identified in older adults with midfoot pain presenting to primary care.Methods: A diagnostic model using brief clinical assessments was developed using cross-sectional data from 274 adults aged ≥50 years who had self-reported midfoot pain in the last month and attended a research assessment clinic between 2010-2011. All clinical assessment data were collected by trained physiotherapy or podiatry assessors adhering to a standardised, quality-controlled protocol. Presence of radiographic midfoot OA in at least one of four scored joints (1st and 2nd cuneo-metatarsal joint, navicular-first cuneiform joint, and talo-navicular joint) was ascertained by a single reader using a validated atlas and scoring system, and who was blinded to the clinical assessment data. Radiographic OA was defined as a score of ≥2 for osteophytes or joint space narrowing on either weight-bearing dorso-plantar or lateral views. SMOA was defined as co-occuring radiographic OA and midfoot pain. One foot per participant was entered into the analysis. The selection of predictor variables was based on known associations with OA or mechanically-driven putative links to SMOA. Significant predictor variables (p<0.25 from likelihood ratio tests) from univariable analyses were simultaneously entered into a multivariable logistic regression model and backward elimination (p=0.05) was performed. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic assessed the calibration of the refitted model and the area under the curve (AUC) evaluated discrimination. Histograms visually summarised discrimination. Internal validation of the model was performed using 1000 bias-corrected bootstrap samples with replacement.Results: 274 participants without inflammatory disease comprised 125 men and 149 women (mean age 65 yrs, SD 9). Of these 155 had midfoot pain and 119 had SMOA. 16 univariable analyses identified 9 significant predictors and no collinearity was observed. In addition to force-entered variables (age, gender, body mass index (BMI)), only two independent predictors of SMOA were retained in the multivariable analysis: (i) reduced ankle dorsiflexion with the knee flexed and (ii) absence of a midfoot exostosis. Based on the strength of univariable association, the Foot Posture Index, subtalar inversion and ankle dorsiflexion with the knee extended appeared too weak to contribute to the final model, whereas the removal of the Arch Index and foot length-corrected navicular height was due to the stronger influence of age explaining these relationships. The final fitted model was well calibrated (p=0.79) but discrimination was poor (AUC, 0.69; 95%CI: 0.62, 0.75). Bootstrapping revealed a small degree of overfitting. The use of categorical predictor variables in continuous form did not identify any other predictors, nor did it improve model performance.Conclusions: Brief clinical assessments offer only marginal improvement to age, gender and BMI for identifying SMOA. Milder severity in a population sample, random and systematic error in the clinical assessment, and variable expression of SMOA disease manifestation may have contributed to poor diagnostic accuracy. A clinically defined SMOA phenotype based on modifiable joint loading characteristics may offer an alternative approach to facilitating the development of more targeted biomechanical interventions

Bowhead whales, and not right whales, were the primary target of 16th- to 17th-century Basque Whalers in the Western North Atlantic

During the 16th and 17th centuries, Basque whalers travelled annually to the Strait of Belle Isle and Gulf of St. Lawrence to hunt whales. The hunting that occurred during this period is of primary significance for the North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis (Müller, 1776), because it has been interpreted as the largest human-induced reduction of the western North Atlantic population, with ~12250–21 000 whales killed. It has been frequently reported that the Basques targeted two species in this region: the North Atlantic right whale and the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus L., 1758. To evaluate this hypothesis and the relative impact of this period of whaling on both species, we collected samples from 364 whale bones during a comprehensive search of Basque whaling ports from the 16th to the 17th century in the Strait of Belle Isle and Gulf of St. Lawrence. Bones were found and sampled at 10 of the 20 sites investigated. DNA was extracted from a subset (n = 218) of these samples. Analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome b region identified five whale species. The identification of only a single right whale bone and 203 bowhead whale bones from at least 72 individuals indicates that the bowhead whale was likely the principal target of the hunt. These results imply that this whaling had a much greater impact (in terms of numbers of whales removed) on the bowhead whale population than on the western North Atlantic right whale population.Aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles, les baleiniers basques se rendaient tous les ans au détroit de Belle Isle et au golfe du Saint- Laurent pour faire la chasse aux baleines. La chasse qui s’est effectuée pendant cette période revêt une grande importance pour la baleine franche ou baleine noire de l’Atlantique Nord, Eubalaena glacialis (Müller, 1776), car cette activité serait interprétée comme la plus grande réduction de la population de baleines franches de l’Atlantique Nord causée par l’être humain, au rythme d’environ 12 250 à 21 000 baleines tuées. On a souvent signalé que les Basques visaient deux espèces dans cette région, soit la baleine franche de l’Atlantique Nord et la baleine boréale, Balaena mysticetus L., 1758. Pour évaluer cette hypothèse et l’incidence relative de cette période de pêche aux baleines sur ces deux espèces, nous avons recueilli des échantillons provenant de 364 ossements de baleines dans le cadre d’une recherche approfondie de ports basques de chasse à la baleine remontant aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles dans le détroit de Belle Isle et le golfe du Saint-Laurent. Des ossements ont été trouvés et échantillonnés à 10 des 20 sites ayant fait l’objet de notre recherche. De l’ADN a été extrait d’un sous-ensemble (n = 218) de ces échantillons. L’analyse mitochondriale cytochrome b de la région a permis d’identifier cinq espèces de baleines. L’identification d’un seul os de baleine franche et de 203 os de baleines boréales provenant d’au moins 72 individus laisse croire que la baleine boréale était probablement la cible principale des chasseurs. Ces résultats impliquent que la chasse à la baleine a eu des incidences beaucoup plus grandes (en termes de nombres de baleines éliminées) sur la population de baleines boréales que sur la population de baleines franches de l’ouest de l’Atlantique Nord

Night shift among women: is it associated with difficulty conceiving a first birth?

Background: Asynchrony in circadian processes alters many physiological systems, including female reproduction. Thus, there are possible reproductive consequences of night shift work for women including menstrual irregularity, endometriosis, and prolonged time to conception. This study examined whether women who worked night shift were more likely than those who did not to require fertility treatment to conceive a first birth, whether they had specific infertility diagnoses, and if such relationships were age-specific. Methods: In a retrospective data linkage study of 128,852 primiparous women, fertility treatment data were linked to the state perinatal registry for South Australia (1986-2002). Potential exposure to night shift work was assessed using a job-exposure matrix. First, the association between night shift work and fertility treatment was assessed among (1) all women, then (2) women in paid employment, using logistic regression. Interactions between age and shift work status were also examined. Secondly, among women who conceived with fertility treatment, we assessed associations between night shift work and type of infertility diagnosis. Potential confounders were considered in all analyses. Results: Among women ≤35 years, night shift workers were more likely to require fertility treatment (all: OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.19-1.64; in paid employment: OR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.08-1.50). There were no associations among women >35 years. Ethnicity, socioeconomic status and smoking did not affect these results. Among women who underwent fertility treatment, night shift workers were more likely than day workers to have menstrual irregularity (OR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.91) or endometriosis (OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.00-1.80). Conclusions: Night shift work may contribute to increased need for fertility treatment in younger women. This increased risk may reflect young women's vulnerability in terms of poor tolerance of night shift work, and/or lack of control and choice about shift schedule.Renae C. Fernandez, Vivienne M. Moore, Jennifer L. Marino, Melissa J. Whitrow, and Michael J. Davie

NOAO fundamental plane survey II: Age and metallicity along the red sequence from line-strength data

We present spectroscopic line-strength data for 4097 red-sequence galaxies in 93 low-redshift galaxy clusters and use these to investigate variations in average stellar populations as a function of galaxy mass. Our analysis includes an improved treatment of nebular emission contamination, which affects 10% of the sample galaxies. Using the stellar population models of D. Thomas and collaborators, we simultaneously fit 12 observed line-strength relations in terms of common underlying trends of age, [Z/H] (total metallicity), and [/Fe] (-element enhancement). We find that the observed line-strength relations can be explained only if higher mass red-sequence galaxies are, on average, older, more metal-rich, and more -enhanced than lower mass galaxies. Quantitatively, the scaling relations are age0.59±0.13, Z/H0.53±0.08, and /Fe0.31±0.06, where the errors reflect the range obtained using different subsets of indices. Our conclusions are not strongly dependent on which Balmer lines are used as age indicators. The derived age- relation is such that if the largest (400 km s-1) galaxies formed their stars 13 Gyr ago, then the mean age of low-mass (50 km s-1) objects is only 4 Gyr. The data also suggest a large spread in age at the low-mass end of the red sequence, with 68% of the galaxies having ages between 2 and 8 Gyr. We conclude that although the stars in giant red galaxies in clusters formed early, most of the galaxies at the faint end joined the red sequence only at recent epochs. This "downsizing" trend is in good qualitative agreement with observations of the red sequence at higher redshifts but is not predicted by semianalytic models of galaxy formation